Posts filed under “Markets”
I use a few resources that are edited collections of other market resources. These web postings’ reason for existence is to refer to other related data sources. I call them Meta-pages (Meta-filter, Meta-Index, etc.)
We’re going to out Meta them all: This page will reference all the meta pages I regularly use that refer to other sources: Its a Meta page of Meta-Pages: A Meta-Meta Market Resource Page.
Be forewarned: Anyone of these links contains enough other links that you can get lost in them for hours. The particularly egregious sinkholds are labelled a such.
Let’s get started:
• The Stock Market, Economics and VC Blog Resource Page http://www.seekingalpha.com/2005/03/the_finance_blo.html
a "categorized list of the best stock market, economics and venture
capital blogs," along with a description of each. A great place to
start learning more about market related blogs.
• The Market Resource Page
This collection of mostly larger size firm’s research and commentary. Before you discount this as too mainstream, the list is heavy with contrarians and atypical, outside the box strategists. Yes, there are entries form well know sources like Warren Buffett (Berkshire), Piper Jaffray (China tech), Dow Jones (Fund Stats) — but there are plenty of odd ducks whose off-center perspectives have put together an enviable and track record, including:
Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC (GMO)
Paul Kasriel The Northern Trust Company
Legg Mason’s Bill Miller
Oakmark’s Bill Nygren
Pimco’s Bill Gross
Raymond James’ Jeffrey Saut
Morgan Stanley’s Steve Roach
Definitely check it out.
The Economics Roundtable is a headline metapage of recent posts from a few dozen economic related blogs. Its a great meta-source to see whats blossoming in the world of Dismal Science bloggings. It is global in scope, and covers authors from yours truly to Larry Kudlow to everyone else in between. Its another giant time sinkhole.
More than just Hedge Fund related links (but there are a ton of them, too) its a monster linkfest: News links are broken down into several categories: Global, US and Financial. There are pointers to pages on the Economy, Market and Political Sentiment, general Trading/Research, on Stock-specific Research, as well as Trade Journals/Publications.
HedgedFund.org is another enormous timehole, but you I guarantee you will find lots of resources of value.
Formerly of Prudential, now with Oak Associates, Mr.Y2k himself
(he was wildly wrong about the century rollover) has an interesting page of data tools, charts, economic calendars,
commentaries, and other market related items. Even tho Doc Yardeni has been way too bullish throughout the downturn, his perspectives are always interesting and well thought out (if not quite prescient). I like to be challenged in my thinking, and Yardeni does just that. A bit more geek/tech oriented than
the rest of the items mentioned here, its worth exploring.
• RGE Monitor (Roubini Global Economics)
A daily digest of blog postings (ranked somehow) and a list of top
readings from the business press and academia make this site a deep and
broad selection of economic related issues.
OK! That’s all I have for this morning. Given everything I referenced above, you should have enough sources for reference data, commentary and resources to keep you busy for the next 2 years . . .
"Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean is flat again."
– John Maynard Keynes, Tract on Monetary Reform
- Economists and fundamental analysts often miss cycle turns.
- There’s always another recession — and expansion — coming (eventually).
- Learn to separate hand-wringing permabears from credible commentators.
If you have been listening to the financial press recently, you might be shocked (shocked!) to learn that inflation has been increasing and the economy is slowing.
You don’t say?
Of course, readers aren’t just now discovering that this economy has been suffering from inflationary pressures for more than two years, as a chart of the CRB shows.
It’s the same with GDP. Follow the numbers: The third-quarter 2003 number was 7.8% (originally reported as almost 9%), the next quarter’s was 4.2% (originally 6%+) and 2004′s quarterly data came in at 4.5%, 3.3%, 4.0% and 3.8%.
This week, we learned the first quarter of 2005′s number of 3.1% was way below consensus expectations. While some will tell you that 3%+ GDP growth is pretty decent, it’s the trend of waning momentum that is the issue. An early mentor of mine used to admonish traders to not look at the photo, but to watch the full movie instead.
So much for the idea of kinda-sorta-eventually-efficient markets hypothesis.
Slowing GDP and rising inflation have been discussed on this site for over a year now. The investing issue with macroeconomic concerns is not the actual data, but how — and when — that data affects psychology. It’s a question of timing. The commentators who are first now discovering weak GDP and inflationary pressures are not much help to you once the ocean is flat again.