Posts filed under “Markets”

Recession Predictions

Calculated Risk has a nice discussion going on about the difficulty of predicting recessions.

One of the more interesting charts is the SPX, pre-1990-91 Recession. If markets truly had forecasting abilities, then one would presume they would have sold off in advance of the recession.

click for larger graphic

1990sp500

Instead, this chart shows the index rallied right into the start of the contraction. That is hardly predictive. In this instance, the markets acted coincidentally to the recession, instead of predictively. The beginnings and ends of recessions are marked by The National Bureau of Economic Research, and are based on quantitative data.

Calculated Risk declares recession forecasting a "mug’s game" — but also agrees to play.  He does not see a recession as imminent. That’s consistent with my own expectations for  a contraction  in 2006/07 time frame.

Other sources have had some success with recession forecasting. As one commentor here noted, ECRI has a good record forecasting economic turns.

Yesterday, I linked to Jim Stack (InvesTech Research) recent recession alert, which was reproduced at Forbes. I’ve been a subscriber, and I find Stack’s research very interesting, his track record good, and its costs relatively inexpensive.

Category: Economy, Markets

The Trap is set: Last Chance to Reposition

Category: Investing, Markets

Chart of the Week: Nasdaq Comp: 52 Week Highs/Lows

Category: Markets

Ugly Quote of the Day

Category: Investing, Markets

Fund Flows

Category: Investing, Markets

Dot-Coms vs. Real Estate

Category: Finance, Markets, Psychology

Stock Market Extremes and Portfolio Performance

Category: Investing, Markets

An Excuse for Bad Advice

This chart has been used primarily as an excuse for bad investment advice: Source: Marketwatch Why an excuse? It builds in an out for the advice giver: See, you just have to hold onto stocks long enough . . . then you will outperform other asset classes. Now all we need to do is figure…Read More

Category: Books, Investing, Markets

The Magazine Cover Indicator Strikes Again!

Here’s a (belated) recognition of a contrarian signal: The Magazine Cover indicator "The Incredible Shrinking Dollar" Source:  Newsweek I’ve been meaning to post this for a week, ever since Aaron Task mentioned it in Columnist Conversation — but I never got to it. BTW, is it just me, or does this paragraph (from the cover…Read More

Category: Markets, Media

The Hardly Efficient Market

I got my first iPod (a Press loaner from Apple) the first week they came out. It was a transcendant experience, and I pounded the table to nearly everyone I knew that this was a huge winner. It made Apple stock, trading then at a pre-split price of $18, with $13 in cash, absurdly cheap….Read More

Category: Markets