Posts filed under “Markets”
U.S. markets have declined in the new year. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. When markets go straight up without pause and sentiment becomes excessive, it rarely ends well. A little dose of fear might be a good thing.
Which brings me to today’s listicle. These aren’t forecasts, but events I’d like to see happen. Think of it as my wish list.
U.S. Equities: Nothing goes straight up (or down) forever. The market’s torrid run since early 2009 has been in danger of overheating. As noted, sentiment can get silly at times. A break is deserved, giving earnings time to catch up with prices and make a fully valued market more attractive. I have been calling this the most-hated rally in market history. As my colleague Josh Brown has noted, this is no longer the case.
Wish: U.S. stock markets that are little changed to slightly down. This would be healthy in the long run.
Global Markets: On the other hand, emerging and developed markets in Asia and Europe have been in trouble for quite a while. They need to get their houses in order, which no one expects any time soon. However, Mr. Market never waits for the all-clear whistle. Typically, markets rallying long before improvements are reflected in the economic data. Those who wait for it to be safe are always late to the party.
Wish: A second-half 2015 rally, including the resumption of emerging-market gains.
Overview The Euro has declined to around US$1.19. However, net short speculative positions have, once again, risen to extreme levels, which worries me. Tomorrow’s December EZ CPI inflation data is highly important. The Bloomberg forecast is for a reading of -0.1% Y/Y, as opposed to +0.3% in November. Tomorrow’s FED minutes will also be very…Read More
‘Tis the day before New Year’s and despite what you’re hopin’ The folks in the Boardroom say “the full day we’re open” So we’ll buy and we’ll sell as the tape crawls along And though “Bubbly’s” verboten we may still sing a song Two Thousand Fourteen was okay, not really a wow Till a Santa…Read More
Click to get started. Source: AQR Data Sets From AQR: For years I’ve been an admirer of, and thankful for, those who have created and publicly shared the databases that allow us to do our research far easier and better. Today AQR attempts to join them in making such a contribution. When you create a…Read More
The 2014 Festivus Airing of Grievances Well, it’s that time of the year again for the airing of grievances. And I’ve got a lot of problems with you people! First of which are those of you (PK, NYT?) who insist that the Fed’s QE did not result in any inflation. It all depends on your definition of…Read More
I love this quote from Wesley Gray, Ph.D: The sad conclusion is that none of these ideas stand up to intense robustness tests, except for the simplest, technical rules. You just can’t beat them. It’s kind of crazy when you think about it. We had hoped that having tested every model and approach under the…Read More
Since 1979, Jadav Payeng has been planting hundreds of trees on an Indian island threatened by erosion. In this film, photographer Jitu Kalita traverses Payeng’s home—the largest river island in the world—and reveals the touching story of how this modern-day Johnny Appleseed turned an eroding desert into a wondrous oasis. Funded in part by Kickstarter,…Read More
Succinct Summations week ending December 19th Positives: 1. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had the biggest daily back-to-back gains since March 2009. 2. Despite last week’s selloff — the biggest in over two years — the S&P 500 is up for the month of December. 3. Industrial production rose 1.3% vs expectations for a 0.7%…Read More
Once again, the markets prove that nobody knows nuthin’. Following a bit of oil-driven turmoil the past few weeks, financial markets took off on Wednesday and Thursday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had the biggest daily back-to-back gains since March 2009. Underinvested fund managers, short-sellers and even long-only, fully invested money managers worried that…Read More