Posts filed under “Markets”

Stack: Competition to Call the Next Bear Market

Jim Stack of Investech has described what he calls “the competition to call the next bear market.”

We have been going discussing this issue, and I am saving his comments for a Bloomberg column next week. But here is a flavor of what he has been writing, from his most recent commentary:

2011
We’re In a New Bear Market, Says One Technical Indicator – Wall Street Journal, 8/12/11
Signs of a Crash Ahead, Not a Recession – New York Times, 9/28/11
Wall Street Approaches a Bear Market – New York Times, 10/3/11
What if There’s a Bear Market in 2012? – Forbes, 12/29/11

2012
3 Reasons Why the Bear Market is Back – Yahoo! Finance, 5/23/12
A bear market in bull’s clothing – MarketWatch, 8/27/12
Big-name stocks fall into bear markets – USA Today, 11/9/12

2013
An epic bear market is coming – MSN Money, 1/2/13
Bear Market to Take Hold in 2013: Expert – CNBC, 3/14/13
Bear Traps Await Investors – Wall Street Journal, 7/31/13
Doomsday poll: still a 98% risk of 2014 stock crash – MarketWatch, 12/21/13

2014
Is The Next Bear Market Here Already? – Nasdaq.com, 4/2/14
Buckle Up! The New Bear Market Has Begun – Seeking Alpha, 5/8/14
Two signs a market crash is coming – Yahoo! Finance, 7/17/14
Three Signs That Point to a Stock-Market Tumble Ahead – Wall Street Journal, 8/1/14 4
Signs this bull market is on its last legs – MarketWatch, 8/13/14

It would be quite amusing if it weren’t such a money loser so far . . .

Category: Markets

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.22.14

Succinct Summations week ending August 22nd Positives: 1. S&P 500 made a new all-time high. 2. Existing homes sales increased to 2.4%, the biggest increase in almost a year. 3. Housing starts exploded 15.7% m/o/m, the fastest pace in 8 months. 4. Jobless claims fell to 298k vs the 303k expected and down from 311k…Read More

Category: Markets

Weekendend Homework: Sources & Research on Shiller’s CAPE

I have a fairly long piece coming out looking at CAPE, but for those of you interested, here are the research and resources I used: Fixing the Shiller CAPE: Accounting, Dividends, and the Permanently High Plateau   PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS December 13, 2013 @Jesse_Livermore An Old Friend: The Stock Market’s Shiller P/E, Clifford S. Asness, Ph.D., AQR’s…Read More

Category: Markets, Philosophy, Valuation

Economic Indicators Dashboard

Source: Russell Investments

Category: Economy, Markets

Get Ready for the Shanghai Composite Break Out

  China is on the verge of breaking out from its pattern of consolidation, at least according to the monthly chart book from the analytics team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. If you look at the chart above you can see that the Shanghai Composite Index is in the midst of transitioning into an…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Skepticism Leads to More Market Momentum

Amid a wealth of potential problems, markets are now close to record highs. Military conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza and Ukraine are an unending source of concern. Domestically, economic growth remains below potential. The civil strife in Ferguson, Missouri, reveals the U.S. to be a nation even more divided than previously thought by many. At…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Markets, Psychology

5th Longest S&P500 Streak

For data buffs: Stephen Suttmeier of BAML points put that this is the 5th-longest S&P 500 streak above the 200-day MA going back to 1928. “The S&P 500 Index moved above its 200-day moving average on November 19, 2012 and has not closed below it on a daily basis for 21 months. The record is…Read More

Category: Markets

A Data Junkie Looks at the News

Many years ago, when I was a poor and humble graduate student, I taught the prep course for students taking the GMATs and LSATs. I understood the internal logic and game theory needed to succeed on standardized tests, and could explain techniques used to do well on them. One of the keys to succeeding on…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Markets, Really, really bad calls

Why should investors care about geopolitics?

One of the concerns for investors is how markets keep powering higher despite all of the geopolitical turmoil: The grinding Syrian civil war that has spilled into Iraq, the clash between Israel and Gaza, the Crimea annexation and now the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. That thinking gets the issue precisely backward. The proper question…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, War/Defense

Volume of Technology Deals

Source: US Technology Deal Insights Q2 2014 Update, PWC

Category: Markets, Technology