Posts filed under “Markets”

Emerging-Market Stocks = Cheap

Emerging-Stock Bargain Seen in Commodity Users: Chart of the Day
By David Wilson, Bloomberg


The CHART OF THE DAY illustrates how Emerging-market stocks are becoming cheap enough relative to U.S. shares.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank compared the price-to-sales ratios for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which tracks shares of companies in 23 developing countries, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The top panel, which resembles a chart he cited in a report last week, shows both ratios since 2001 on a monthly basis.




At the end of last year, MSCI’s index had a 46 percent lower ratio than the S&P 500, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This amounted to the biggest discount for emerging-market shares since November 2001, as seen in the chart’s bottom panel. A recent gap was 44 percent.

BMO Private Bank is considering an investment in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Asia exchange-traded fund, Ablin said. The ETF owns the shares of companies based in China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan.

“Emerging economies that rely almost exclusively on natural resources” are to be avoided, said Ablin, based in Chicago. Shares of companies based in these countries will suffer, he said, as the price of oil and other commodities settle at lower levels.

Category: Economy, Markets, Technical Analysis, Valuation

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 2.6.15

Succinct Summations week ending February 6th Positives: 1. January Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 257k vs 228k expected. 2. Eurozone retail sales were up 2.8% in December, the strongest in almost 8 years. 3. Average hourly earnings grew at 2.2% vs 1.9% expected. 4. Eurozone growth came in at 52.6, a six-month high. 5. Big…Read More

Category: Markets

10 Monday AM Reads

Now THAT was a game. Here are my post-Superbowl morning train reads: • Just Your Average Stock Market Recovery (Servo) • Breaking With Bogle (Bloomberg View) • Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4% (Calculated Risk) see also Americans Are Feeling Better About the Economy—a Lot Better (Real Time Economics) • Best Stock Picks From Wall Street Brokerage Firms (Barron’s)…Read More

Category: Markets

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 1/30/15

Succinct Summations week ending January 30rd Positives: 1. Weekly jobless claims fell 43,000 to 265,000, the lowest since 2000! 2. Apple reported a record breaking quarter as it sold 74.5 million iPhones 3. Personal consumption came in at 4.3% vs 4% expected. 4. Chicago PMI came in at 59.4 vs the 57.5 expected. 5.  U…Read More

Category: Markets

The Increasingly Unequal States of America

The Increasingly Unequal States of America Source: EPI

Category: Markets

The Year in VIX and Volatility

Terrific graphic from Bill Luby at VIX and More looking at the various potential drivers of volatility:   click for monster chart Source: VIX and More

Category: Derivatives, Markets, Technical Analysis

Look Out Below, fill-in-the-blank edition!

Markets were under intense pressure earlier today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down almost 400 points. Most indexes were down 2 percent or so around the globe before recovering some of the losses. As is often the case during big market swings, numerous narratives attempt to explain the causes of the market turmoil. Consider…Read More

Category: Earnings, Economy, Markets

Look Out Below, _____ edition!

    Whats driving the market lower today: European softness, Grexit, Microsoft miss, Cat comments, or something else entirely? Often, the most accurate answer is we don’t know . . .   More on this later    

Category: Markets

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 1/23/15

Succinct Summations week ending January 23rd Positives: 1. ECB to start a QE of their own; 60 billion a month until September 2016 and markets around the world explode higher 2. Housing starts rose 4.4% in December to an annualized pace of 1.09mm coming in much stronger than the 1.2% and 1.02mm expected. 3. The…Read More

Category: Markets

As goes early-January, so goes Nothing

Salil Mehta is a popular statistician and risk strategist, who has developed a unique method to teach quantitative techniques. He blogs at Statistical Ideas. ~~~ We’ve started the year with a sizable downward market pattern, which is making market participants think in ill-advised ways.  Eight of the first eleven trading days (S&P 500) were negative.  If…Read More

Category: Bad Math, Data Analysis, Markets