Posts filed under “Markets”
One small thing: This is pretty much the same call that Tice made in 2010 and 2012. Apparently, if you make the same crash call every 2 years, most of the media and viewers will have forgotten the prior crash forecast.
Only Google never forgets. In 2010, Tice warned that the Secular Bear Market will not end until we get back to book value or below (Federated’s David Tice Is Not A Fan Of Fed-Manufactured, Free Money Driven, Bear Market Bounces, Sees “Huge” Potential For Decline 03/19/2010).
He repeated that crash call in 2012, predicting “Gold Will Surge To $2,500 And The S&P 500 Will Plunge To 1,000.” Meanwhile, the market rallied to 2000, a 100% gain versus the forecast.
Regular readers know that I believe forecasts are folly.
Perhaps all these crash predictions that did not come to pass while the market tripled in value is why my colleague Michael Batnick notes that The Prudent Bear fund has trailed the S&P500 by 400,000 basis points since 1996.
400,000 basis points!
The truth of markets is that all cycles end. The current bull market will one day end just as well. I advise people that between now and the day this bull cycle reaches its denouement, be careful as to who’s bull you choose to listen to.
My afternoon train reads: • The Challenge (Reformed Broker) see also Your asset allocation is wrong (and so is everyone else’s.) (Bason Asset Management) • What’s The Matter With France? (Krugman) • Europe’s Banks to Offload $770 Billion of Non-Core Property Assets (World Property Channel) see also Europe Bank Cleanup Driving $1.72 Trillion of Asset…Read More
Jim Stack of Investech has described what he calls “the competition to call the next bear market.” We have been going discussing this issue, and I am saving his comments for a Bloomberg column next week. But here is a flavor of what he has been writing, from his most recent commentary: 2011 We’re In…Read More
Succinct Summations week ending August 22nd Positives: 1. S&P 500 made a new all-time high. 2. Existing homes sales increased to 2.4%, the biggest increase in almost a year. 3. Housing starts exploded 15.7% m/o/m, the fastest pace in 8 months. 4. Jobless claims fell to 298k vs the 303k expected and down from 311k…Read More
I have a fairly long piece coming out looking at CAPE, but for those of you interested, here are the research and resources I used: Fixing the Shiller CAPE: Accounting, Dividends, and the Permanently High Plateau PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS December 13, 2013 @Jesse_Livermore An Old Friend: The Stock Market’s Shiller P/E, Clifford S. Asness, Ph.D., AQR’s…Read More
China is on the verge of breaking out from its pattern of consolidation, at least according to the monthly chart book from the analytics team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. If you look at the chart above you can see that the Shanghai Composite Index is in the midst of transitioning into an…Read More
Amid a wealth of potential problems, markets are now close to record highs. Military conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza and Ukraine are an unending source of concern. Domestically, economic growth remains below potential. The civil strife in Ferguson, Missouri, reveals the U.S. to be a nation even more divided than previously thought by many. At…Read More