Posts filed under “Markets”
Succinct Summations week ending January 24, 2014
1. Average gas price in 2013 was a 3-year low.
2. Initial jobless claims come in 4k lower than expected.
3. Existing home sales (December) rose for the first time in 3 months, making 2013’s total the highest in 7 years.
4. IMF boosts global growth forecasts, showing how shallow positive news was this week.
5. Bad news seems to be bad news again, and good news is good news. Surely this is positive news.
6. AAII Bulls down to a 2-month low (excessive bullishness is not healthy).
7. MBA said refi’s jumped 9.9%
8. China’s economy grows 7.7% in Q4
1. For the first time in 3 months the S&P 500 and Dow both close below their 50-day moving averages.
2. HSBC’s China Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.6 (contraction) which is its lowest reading since July, this sent S&P futures deep into the red and triggered the 2 day sell-off.
3. US Existing Home Sales in December totaled 4.87mm annualized, 60k less than expected.
4. It looks like January will be the first red month since August.
5. Argentina’s peso suffered its worst day in 12 years, emerging markets got smacked.
6. 1st time home buyers total just 27% of purchases, the lowest on the record books of the NAR.
click for updated futures Yesterday, we discussed the likelihood of an equity correction versus the end of the bull market. Today, futures are deep in the red, looking like another 1 percent sell-off or worse awaits us. European stocks are down 1 percent or more, with the IBEX off more than 2 percent….Read More
Good snowy morning. Here are my weather-delayed commuting reading materials: • Private Investment and the Business Cycle (Calculated Risk), see also Recession’s True Cost Is Still Being Tallied (NY Times) • Decision making under uncertainty (O’Reilly Radar) • UBS at Davos: ‘Technology will save the day’ (FT Alphaville), see also Macro problems, micro solutions (PDF)…Read More
Source:Société Générale From Société Générale strategist Andrew Lapthorne comes the chart above, and the observation that ”It has been 408 days since the last 10% correction in the MSCI World index, the 8th longest period on record.” As the char above shows, this is just about the median length of time between corrections. The mere…Read More
The US Congress agreed on a bipartisan compromise to fund the US government until 30th September. US retail sales rose by +0.2% in December as opposed to a downwardly revised increase of 0.4% in November. Core retail sales also increased, suggesting a broad based improvement in sales. Sales data which feeds into GDP rose by…Read More
A gold enthusiast? Listen to the head — and history. Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, January 11 2014 How much money did you make from gold’s spectacular run from under $500 a decade ago to more than $1,900 two years ago? How much did you lose from the 38 percent collapse since its…Read More
Succinct Summations week ending January 17, 2014 Positives: 1. Core retail sales (ex-auto & gas) gained 0.6% v expectations for a 0.3% rise. 2. GM announced first dividend in almost 6 years. 3. 2013 housing starts were the best year since 2007. 4. Import price index declined 1.3% in 2013. 5. Remember Italian yields? The…Read More
On Monday, we saw a sell-off of more than 1 percent across major U.S. markets. Europe and Asia followed suit the next day. Judging by my e-mails I received, this was it, the beginning of the end, and “you unrepentant bulls are finally going to get what you deserved.” Except not quite yet. Tuesday and…Read More