Posts filed under “Markets”

Last month, I spilled a considerable number of pixels explaining why Rupert Murdoch’s Time Warner bid had no significance to whether or not this is a market top.

My short list included complaints of cherry picked data that somehow ignored most of Murdoch’s M&A activity over the past half century; a laughably small sample size of just two; and every statistician’s favorite foible, assuming correlation equals causation, and not a merely random outcome.

We get to revisit that exercise in debunking that silly chart this morning on the news that wily ole Rupert has withdrawn his bid for Time Warner. And just to show how serious he – that his offer is really off the table – 21st Century Fox announced a $6 billion buyback, disposing of the cash that could have used to purchase Time Warner.

Its as if he is saying: “Stop me before I acquire again!”

Forget the M&A news for a moment, and think about the arc of this takeover bid, and withdrawal relative to the claim that the bid itself was proof a top was imminent. What implications does the withdrawal of the bid have?

10 Questions Investors Should Be Asking Themselves Now

1.  Continues here



Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Trading

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 8.1.14

Succinct Summations week ending August 1st Positives: 1. GDP grew on a 4% annualized basis in Q2, up from -2.9% in Q1 and above expectations of 3.1%. 2. Consumer sentiment came in at 81.8, up from 81.3 and better than the 81.5 expected. 3. ISM manufacturing index came in at 57.1, up from 55.3 and…Read More

Category: Markets

Earnings Disappointments vs Stock prices

Source: The Reformed Broker

Category: Earnings, Markets

The Universe of Pop Culture Bears

I woke up this morning, and true to my travel history, markets are under pressure. After I saw the futures this AM, I thought of this: Source: FastCo Design

Category: Digital Media, Humor, Markets

Where Are Clothes Manufactured?

Click for an interactive graphic. Source:

Category: Digital Media, Economy, Markets

Source: Societe General, BlackRock

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Markets

Where Did All the Bulls Go?

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch, Global Research, Bloomberg   Continues here      

Category: Markets, Sentiment

Rising Rates Unliklely to Kill This Bull Market

One of the oldest rules on Wall Street is, don’t fight the Fed. When the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, you want to be long equities, and when it is tightening, get out of the way. This has been a cause for concern since the Fed began talking of tapering its program of quantitative easing…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Investing, Markets

Succinct Summations of Week Events 7.25.14

Succinct Summations week ending July 25th 2014 Positives: 1. S&P 500 made a new all-time highs. 2. US Initial jobless claims came in at 284k well below the 307k expected and the lowest reading since February ‘06. 3. Existing home sales came in at 5.04M annualized, better than expected. May numbers were also revised higher….Read More

Category: Markets

Does Increased M&A = Potential Market Top ?

FT: When investors are complacent, stupid deals happen Source: FT     Last week, I pointed out some statistical errors in a chart suggesting that Rupert Murdoch’s bid for Time Warner was a sign of the market’s top. The chart had enough omissions to render it useless. Today, I want to show you a (slightly)…Read More

Category: M&A, Markets, Sentiment