Posts filed under “Markets”

Skepticism Leads to More Market Momentum

Amid a wealth of potential problems, markets are now close to record highs. Military conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza and Ukraine are an unending source of concern. Domestically, economic growth remains below potential. The civil strife in Ferguson, Missouri, reveals the U.S. to be a nation even more divided than previously thought by many. At the very least, the buffoonish local cops there are a national embarrassment.

None of this seems to matter to Mr. Market. He continues to power on, oblivious to issues that don’t affect corporate earnings. They have, by the way, been stellar, growing at a 9 percent annual rate. Meanwhile, interest rates are still low and inflation is subdued.

Rarely have conditions for market gains been so promising at a time when investor psychology has been so negative.

Gallup reports that only 7 percent of those surveyed were aware of last year’s scorching gains in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. “Fewer than one in 10 aware that stocks averaged 30% increase in 2013,” read one of the headlines on a report from earlier this month. More than half of those polled would put any new cash into bank accounts or CDs, eschewing equities, according to the survey.

The less interested the public seems to be in stocks, the higher they seem to go. Stephen Suttmeier, technical analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, points out that the present rally is the fifth-longest since 1928:  continues here

Category: Contrary Indicators, Markets, Psychology

5th Longest S&P500 Streak

For data buffs: Stephen Suttmeier of BAML points put that this is the 5th-longest S&P 500 streak above the 200-day MA going back to 1928. “The S&P 500 Index moved above its 200-day moving average on November 19, 2012 and has not closed below it on a daily basis for 21 months. The record is…Read More

Category: Markets

A Data Junkie Looks at the News

Many years ago, when I was a poor and humble graduate student, I taught the prep course for students taking the GMATs and LSATs. I understood the internal logic and game theory needed to succeed on standardized tests, and could explain techniques used to do well on them. One of the keys to succeeding on…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Markets, Really, really bad calls

Why should investors care about geopolitics?

One of the concerns for investors is how markets keep powering higher despite all of the geopolitical turmoil: The grinding Syrian civil war that has spilled into Iraq, the clash between Israel and Gaza, the Crimea annexation and now the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. That thinking gets the issue precisely backward. The proper question…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, War/Defense

Volume of Technology Deals

Source: US Technology Deal Insights Q2 2014 Update, PWC

Category: Markets, Technology

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 8.15.14

Succinct Summations Week Ending August 15th Positives: 1. The S&P 500 gained 1.4% on the week and is just 1.5% off the all-time highs. 2. NFIB small business optimism rose to 95.7, up from95 previously. 3. U.K. unemployment fell to 6.4%, the lowest level since ’08. 4. Consumer confidence in Japan rose to an 8-month…Read More

Category: Markets

Flashback: Dark Days On Wall Street . . .

On this date 32 years ago, the New York Times included the following paragraph in an article titled, “Dark Days On Wall Street.” In the past two weeks, all the market averages have plunged to new lows as Wall Street, beset by cruel economic news from all sides, has time after time been unable to…Read More

Category: Markets

Dudley: Liquidity & the Functioning of the Financial System

Welcoming Remarks at Workshop on the Risks of Wholesale Funding August 13, 2014 William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer Remarks at the Workshop on the Risks of Wholesale Funding, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City As prepared for delivery*   It is a pleasure to welcome you to the New…Read More

Category: Markets

Vanguard: Quantifying the impact of chasing fund performance

Vanguard: Quantifying the impact of chasing fund performance

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Recent Owners’ Equivalent Rent Inflation Is Probably Not a Blip

Recent Owners’ Equivalent Rent Inflation Is Probably Not a Blip Amy Higgins and Randal Verbrugge 8.11.14     Recently, the overall rate of inflation has risen, owing partly to inflation in Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER). But many wonder if the current rate of OER inflation, which is now at levels not seen since 2009, is…Read More

Category: Markets