Posts filed under “Markets”

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.21.15

Succinct Summations for the week ending August 21st


1. Housing starts came in at 1.21mm, up from 1.2 and better than the 1.185 expected.
2. Philly Fed came in at 8.3, up from 5.7 and better than the 6 expected.
3. Mortgage rates fell to another multi month low at 4.11%,
4. Refinance applications rose 7.2% and are up 21.2% y/o/y.
5. Japanese exports rose 7.6% y/o/y.


1. Rough week for stocks, with the S&P 500 posting its largest 5-day decline since November 2011.
2. FOMC minutes from July reflect a divided committee leaning towards an increase this year, in September or December.
3. Not a whiff of inflation, CPI and core CPI rose just 0.1%.
4. Markit US manufacturing fell to 52.9, the lowest reading since October 2013.
5. Empire manufacturing fell to -14.9 vs expectations of +3.9.

Category: Markets

Is the Bull Dead?

Is the bull market, which started after the lows of early 2009, coming to an end? Let’s have a look at some data, as well as the arguments pro and con, to see if we can find any insight. In particular, I want to look at the latest economic, corporate and market issues to see…Read More

Category: Asset Allocation, Commodities, Cycles, Economy, Markets

How Have Market Dynamics Changed?

Source: Citigroup via Bloomberg

Category: Markets

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.14.15

Succinct Summations for the week ending August 14th Positives: 1. U.S. industrial production rose 0.6%, above the 0.4% expected increase. 2. NFIB small business index rose to 95.4, up from 94.1. 3. Producer prices rose 0.2% vs the 0.1% expected increase. 4. Consumer sentiment came in at 92.9, slightly higher than the 92.8 expected. Negatives:…Read More

Category: Markets

Oh, No! The Death Cross! (Never Mind . . . )

One of the themes we like to touch on in this column are heuristics. Myths that become Wall Street rules of thumb have existed for as long as there have been trading desks. They are legion, they pop up regularly and most of the time they are terribly wrong. Woe to the unwary trader who relies…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Look Out Below, China Yuan Devaluation Version

click for updated futures

Category: Currency, Markets

Fact Versus Fiction on Seattle Minimum Wage

@TBPInvictus “He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is full of falsehoods and errors.” – Thomas Jefferson If you’ve followed me at all recently, you know I have a keen interest in the minimum wage experiment that is going on in the city of Seattle, which last year approved increases to…Read More

Category: Markets, Politics, Really, really bad calls, Wages & Income

JPM’s Bear Markets

Today is as good a day as any to show this chart from my favorite quarterly slide deck:   click for ginormous graphic Source: JP Morgan

Category: Data Analysis, Markets, Trading

Liscio Report: Comments on July Employment

COMMENTS ON JULY EMPLOYMENT Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood The Liscio Report, August 7, 2015     This is a report custom-designed for the dog days: little of interest to distract one from the important business of R&R, including, if you’re lucky, fishing. A bit on the weak side, perhaps – especially the household survey – but not…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.7.15

Succinct Summations for the week ending August 7th Positives: 1. Car sales are on fire, GM sales rose 6.4% and Ford sales rose 4.9%, vs expectations of a 0.6% and 1.8% increase, respectively. 2. Unemployment came in at 5.3%, unchanged from last month and in line with expectations. 3. Weekly jobless claims came in at…Read More

Category: Markets