Posts filed under “Markets”

It’s a Bubble! It’s a Recession! It’s a Crash!

When was the last time anyone got good investing advice from the front page of a newspaper or magazine or from a television pundit?

That is the question I have been pondering during this market cycle. Whether it is the price of equities or the state of the economy, I have grave reservations about relying on the usual suspects as a source of insight. This is especially the case when the usual suspects have been so wrong for so long about these issues.

Ask yourself the following questions:

• When has the mainstream media made a timely warning about an imminent recession?

• Has the punditocracy ever correctly identified a bubble in real time?

• When have the public’s perspectives on market valuation ever been right?

Look at mutual fund flows if you want to see how wrong individuals are; check out various valuation methods to see how much bias and data cherry-picking goes on.

Continues here

 

 

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Financial Press, Markets, Psychology, UnGuru

Conditions Favorable for a Capex Comeback

Source: Bloomberg Visual Data

Category: Corporate Management, Digital Media, Markets

10 Thursday AM Reads

My morning reads (continues here): • Companies selling stocks at record pace this year (WSJ) • Irrational exuberance and neural crash warning signals during endogenous experimental market bubbles (National Academy of Sciences) see also They discovered something in the brains of great investors that makes them do so much better (Business Insider) • Ray Dalio…Read More

Category: Markets

What to Do in a Market Correction

Things to try in a market correction: • Respond emotionally, giving in to your lizard brain. It does a good job of keeping you alive, so you might as well hand over management of your portfolio to it. • Rely on your gut instinct to lead you out of trouble. After all, your instincts helped…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets, Psychology

I Love the 80′s: 1982 Low vs 2009 Low

click for ginormnous chart Source: The Chart Store   “I Love the ’80s” was a BBC television miniseries that examined the world through the lens of 1980s pop culture. (VH1’s riff on the show can be found here). I bring up the ’80s because of a wonderful chart from Ron Griess who runs The Chart…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets

Correction? Yes. When? Nobody Knows.

Welcome back from the long holiday weekend. Before we left for our nation’s birthday celebration, markets had a little party of their own: The Dow had broken 17,000, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had touched a record high and was spitting distance from crossing 2,000. Even the small-cap indexes such as the Russell 2000…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Trading

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 7.3.14

Succinct Summations for the week ending July 3rd Positives: 1) The Dow crossed 17,000 for the first time ever. 2) NFP came in at 288k v 215k expected; this is the strongest 6-month period since 2006. 3) June SAAR auto sales came in at 16.92mm SAAR above the estimate of 16.38mm, 4) ADP delivered a…Read More

Category: Markets

Q2: Fade Forecasts and Diversify

July 1 is one of my favorite days of the year. In addition to a wealth of historical milestones today (See Jason Zweig’s, “This Day in Financial History”), and the coming July 4 holiday weekend, it also marks the start of the second half of the year. As such, it is a good time to…Read More

Category: Markets

MoneyBeat: Key Events from Q2

Fun informative graphic from Paul Vigna and Steve Russolillo:   click for ginormous graphic Source: WSJ MoneyBeat  

Category: Digital Media, Markets

Volatility Over the Past Century

Source: Goldman Sachs via FT Alphaville     Despite what you might have heard recently, as it turns out, periods of low volatility are not particularly unusual. Have a look at the chart nearby. It comes to us from Goldman Sachs via FT Alphaville, and it shows that spikes in volatility are quite unusual. Periods of…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading