Posts filed under “Markets”
Succinct Summations for the week ending March 13th:
1. Initial jobless claims fell to 289k vs estimates of 305k.
2. CPI in China rose 1.4% y/o/y, higher than expected.
3. NFIB small business optimism index came in at 98.
4. MBA purchase applications rose 1.9%.
5. Import prices fell 9.4% y/o/y, a win for the consumer.
1. The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq both fell for the third consecutive week.
2. Core US retail sales fell 0.2% vs an expected rise of 0.3%.
3. Headline PPI fell 0.5%, way more than the expected 0.3% rise. The disinflation theme continues. Core also fell 0.5%.
4. U of M consumer sentiment fell to 91.2 to a four-month low and below the 95.5 expected.
5. Japan’s Q4 GDP was revised from an initial reading of 2.2% to 1.5%
6. Refinance applications fell 2.9%.
Click for an interactive graphic. Source: WSJ
Herd Behavior in Financial Markets Marco Cipriani and Antonio Guarino Liberty Street Economics March 09, 2015 Over the last twenty-five years, there has been a lot of interest in herd behavior in financial markets—that is, a trader’s decision to disregard her private information to follow the behavior of the crowd. A large theoretical…Read More
Exactly six years ago today, the markets made their ultimate low following a 57% collapse of the S&P. I was fortunate to have been on the right side of that trade in both directions. What is most fascinating to me about that was the pushback from traders and investors — in each direction. It is revealing…Read More
Succinct Summations of events for week ending March 6th 2015: Positives: 1. U.S. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 295k vs expectations for 240k. 2. Unemployment fell to 5.5%, down from 5.7% in January and the lowest level since May 2008. 3. The NASDAQ Composite crossed 5,000 for the first time in 15 years. 4. January…Read More
Succinct Summations week ending February 27th Positives: 1. The Nasdaq Composite just had its highest monthly close ever. 2. Durable goods orders increased 2.8% vs 1.6% expected 3. Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.87% m/o/m and 4.46% y/o/y, both above estimates. 4. Core consumer prices rose 0.2% m/o/m vs +0.1% expected. 5. Pending home sales grew…Read More
Nikkei 225: Potential breakout into a secular bull market Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch We continue to favor Japan’s Nikkei 225. The Nikkei 225 is pushing above the 2007 high of 18,300, which has the potential to end the secular bear market for Japan that began in 1989. This is a focus…Read More
Succinct Summations week ending February 20th Positives: 1. Stocks keep humming, the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 made new all-time highs. 2. Initial jobless claims fell to 283k vs the 290k expected. 3. EU consumer confidence hit the highest levels since Sept 2007 4. Markit US manufacturing PMI came in at 54.3, slightly higher than…Read More