Posts filed under “Markets”

Succinct Summations of Week Events 7.25.14

Succinct Summations week ending July 25th 2014

Positives:

1. S&P 500 made a new all-time highs.
2. US Initial jobless claims came in at 284k well below the 307k expected and the lowest reading since February ‘06.
3. Existing home sales came in at 5.04M annualized, better than expected. May numbers were also revised higher.
4. European July manufacturing rose to 54, a 3-month high and above expectations.
5. AAII showed the fewest bulls since early May, healthy to shake out the weak hands.
6. June CPI rose .3% core rose .1%, in line with expectations.
7. German consumer confidence rose to the highest levels since ’06; Spain unemployment fell to a 2-year low, still a ridiculously high 24.5%;
8. China HSBC manufacturing came in at 52, an eighteen month high.

Negatives:

1. June New Home Sales came in at 406k, well below the 475k expected. May #s were revised down to just 442k vs the initial read of 504k.
2. Markit ISM manufacturing index fell to 56.3, a three month low.
3. French business confidence came in at the lowest levels since summer ’13.
4. Japan July manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8, from 51.5 previously.
5. Japanese exports fell 2% y/o/y vs an expected 1% gain.
6. Geopolitical tumult continues unabated

 

Category: Markets

Does Increased M&A = Potential Market Top ?

FT: When investors are complacent, stupid deals happen Source: FT     Last week, I pointed out some statistical errors in a chart suggesting that Rupert Murdoch’s bid for Time Warner was a sign of the market’s top. The chart had enough omissions to render it useless. Today, I want to show you a (slightly)…Read More

Category: M&A, Markets, Sentiment

Kiron Sarkar’s Weekly Report 19.7.14

China’s GDP rose by a better than expected +7.5% in Q2 Y/Y and was welcomed by markets. The improvement reflects the stimulus programme undertaken by the government and the sharp rise in lending, once again, as a result of government policy. The government’s actions suggests that they will continue with their stimulus programme/increased lending if…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events July 18 2014

Succinct Summations week ending July 18th Positives: 1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time high. 2. NAHB home builder sentiment rose to 53 vs  the 50 expected. 3. Jobless claims hit a nine-week low, down to 302k. 4. NY manufacturing survey rose to 25.6, the highest level since ’10. 5. Jobless claims…Read More

Category: Markets

10 Tuesday PM Reads

My afternoon train reads : • Hedge funds miss out on equity surge (FT) • Investors Still Love The Thrill of the Chase (Investing Caffeine) see also Quantum math makes human irrationality more sensible (Science News) • Here’s why Larry Summers is wrong about secular stagnation (WonkBlog) • Nocera: Helping Big Companies Compete (NY Times)…Read More

Category: Markets

Succinct Summation on Week’s Events July 11 2014

Succinct Summations week ending July 11th Positives: 1. Despite a nasty opening on Wednesday, the S&P 500 is less than 1% away from its all-time high. 2. Japanese consumer confidence rose to 41.1 from 39.3, the highest of the year. 3. Average gas price is down to $3.64, the lowest levels since April 4. The…Read More

Category: Markets

It’s a Bubble! It’s a Recession! It’s a Crash!

When was the last time anyone got good investing advice from the front page of a newspaper or magazine or from a television pundit? That is the question I have been pondering during this market cycle. Whether it is the price of equities or the state of the economy, I have grave reservations about relying…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Financial Press, Markets, Psychology, UnGuru

Conditions Favorable for a Capex Comeback

Source: Bloomberg Visual Data

Category: Corporate Management, Digital Media, Markets

10 Thursday AM Reads

My morning reads (continues here): • Companies selling stocks at record pace this year (WSJ) • Irrational exuberance and neural crash warning signals during endogenous experimental market bubbles (National Academy of Sciences) see also They discovered something in the brains of great investors that makes them do so much better (Business Insider) • Ray Dalio…Read More

Category: Markets

What to Do in a Market Correction

Things to try in a market correction: • Respond emotionally, giving in to your lizard brain. It does a good job of keeping you alive, so you might as well hand over management of your portfolio to it. • Rely on your gut instinct to lead you out of trouble. After all, your instincts helped…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets, Psychology