Posts filed under “Bad Math”

Terry Jeffrey, Hack Extraordinaire (Fun with Numbers Again)

@TBPInvictus here.

In yet another stunning display of journalistic malpractice, Terry Jeffrey put out the following piece after last Friday’s NFP release:

 

Screen Shot 2013-12-07 at 10.27.03 AM

 

Because it suited his (political) purpose, Jeffrey jumped on the Household Survey; looking at the Establishment Survey would not have provided such a dramatic headline. Indeed, it would have provided, for him, no usable headline at all.

What Jeffrey seized on – a 338K gain over the month in government employees (41% of the 818K!!!) – fails to take into account that the previous month, when the Household Survey flagged a decline of 735K, 507K of those (a whopping 69%!!!) were government employees (interestingly, he did not report on that). That was, you know, when we had that government shutdown thing going on. These numbers are shown in the table immediately below. So the gain in November was essentially a reversal of the loss in October due to the government shutdown. This is exactly the same type of bullshit we see periodically with Reagan’s Million Jobs in One Month Miracle. One quick look under the hood and it all falls to pieces.

Screen Shot 2013-12-07 at 11.48.53 AM

I hope to God that Terry Jeffrey never identifies himself as a journalist. I’d hope, rather, that he refers to himself as a charlatan or a montebank, devoid of any integrity whatsoever.

See previously: Makers and Takers

 

 

Category: Bad Math, Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Financial Press, Really, really bad calls

Media Hall of Shame: Black Friday Reporting

I am writing up my BBRG coverage of the innumerate business reporting of Black Friday and the holiday shopping weekend. The press as per usual got it wrong again this year. Here is the press release from the  NRF, pushing their usual survey silliness as if it were actual retail sales data: “More than 141…Read More

Category: Bad Math, Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Financial Press, Really, really bad calls

Enjoy Black Friday But Ignore NRF Surveys

Thanksgiving is but a few days away. We celebrate by the giving of thanks for whatever bounty has come your way. It is a warm and wonderful holiday full of family and tryptophan and good cheer. Black Friday, the day after turkey day, is the official kick off of the season I like to call…Read More

Category: Bad Math, Consumer Spending, Really, really bad calls

About Our “Spending Problem” (Revisited)

@TBPInvictus here It’s a well established fact that the Obama administration has been spending like a drunken sailor since the day he was inaugurated. I first wrote about his spendthrift ways here, toward the end of 2010 (has it already been three years?). Some time has now passed, so how’s it going? Let’s take another…Read More

Category: Bad Math, Current Affairs, Data Analysis, Economy, Really, really bad calls

What Do Hedge Funds Spend On Regulatory Compliance?

Every now and then, I read an article that is factually accurate, technically correct — and utterly misleading. Items like this are “accurate but false” as they leave the reader with an impression of something that is incorrect. Because the world is nuanced and not black and white, the sum of many facts, statistics and…Read More

Category: Bad Math, Hedge Funds, Regulation