Posts filed under “Mathematics”
Legg Mason’s Michael Maubossin looks at the difficulties in untangling outcomes that are based on skill or luck or both as applied to the universe of investing. His conclusions? • The outcomes for most activities combine skill and luck. • Separating skill and luck encourages better thinking about outcomes and allows for sharply improved decision…Read More
There is a BusinessWeek article that notes “Shares of companies whose CEOs dine with Obama outdo the S&P.” I have a quote in that I would like to clarify: “Just a coincidence? Only partly, says Barry Ritholtz, CEO of equity research firm Fusion IQ. Losers don’t get asked to hang out with the President, he…Read More
“There is no trick. We can’t promise to work less, raise pensions and erase deficits.” -French Labor Minister Eric Woerth > The issue of government debt seems to be coming up a lot news lately. Courtesy of the credit collapse and economic recession, Deficits are front page news. Classic balance budget advocates are reiterating their…Read More
“A number of folks are expressing growing concern about potential overbuilding and worrisome speculation in the real estate markets, especially in Florida . . . Entire condo projects and upscale residential lots are being pre-sold before any construction, with buyers freely admitting that they have no intention of occupying the units or building on the…Read More
David Leonhardt has two good tax related pieces (an article, and a blog post) that shed some light on who pays how much taxes in the US. The full article, Yes, 47% of Households Owe No Taxes. Look Closer., is noteworthy for this truism about the tax burden. It is rather informative: “There is no…Read More
Peter Boockvar dug up these fascinating charts from this CBO report from 2002.
What really surprised me is how consistent the US economy has been for most the latter half of the 20th century: About 20% of GDP. It starts about 19%, peaks at about 23% then falls back to about 18 and a half%.
Note that this data is before the Bush’s Prescription Drug Act or Obama’s Health Care bill.
Federal Outlays, 1962 to 2001
(As a percentage of GDP)
Charts via CBO, Perot Charts
More charts after the jump . . .
Despite my association with the Bear camp, and my belief that we are most likely in a long term secular bear market, I actually am an optimistic guy. The future is never as dire looking as the survivalists make it out to be. Even though I know the cyclical bull rally within the longer bear…Read More
Yesterday, my buddy Paul showed this Vanguard interactive chart. Vanguard was trying to show the superiority of Buy & Hold versus “emotional investing.” I have many issues with their argument. First, I have to challenge the use of that term — emotional investing — to describe what is a fixed mathematical exit and entry strategy….Read More
What a splendid idea: A Consumer Finance Protection Agency whose sole purpose is to provide a set of standards for the finance industry when it comes to marketing their products to otherwise naive US consumers. The original plan was to have a standard form for major finance purchases — mortgages, cars, revolving credit. This would…Read More