Posts filed under “Philosophy”
We have our annual TBP Conference next week, and I wanted to take a moment to discuss what makes this event so different from most of the conferences you see advertised.
When you see events like this week’s Value Investor or the annual Ira Sohn Conference, the emphasis is on BUY THIS or SELL THAT. Its almost always a parade of manager’s and their supposed best ideas. I can give you 1000 war stories on this, but that is not how people make money in the markets. If it were, the audiences of financial TV programs would be filthy rich.
What makes much more sense is to have a series of experts with a demonstrated expertise in a given aspect of investing share their process with you. Whether its muni bonds, macro-economics, Europe, quantitative analytics, trading, technicals, behavioral economics, or even politics, hearing from the pros who have navigated treacherous waters is instructive.
We have a terrific event planned for next week — I am looking forward to meeting those of you who can make it. There are still a few discounted seats left courtesy of Bloomberg (go to this link).
The full schedule is after the jump
Every now and again, a meme pops up that cries out to have its head chopped off. The latest such idiocy: People leaving finance to find more “fulfilling” work. I noticed this over the past week when several such articles hit my inbox: The first I saw was a sincere discussion by Mathbabe explaining why…Read More
Over the years, I have debated Wharton (University of Pennsylvania) Professor Jeremy Siegel numerous times. He is a very nice fellow who wrote the widely read book Stocks for the Long Run (aka SFTLR).
If I were to take the other side of the SFTLR argument, I would focus on 3 things:
My main critiques are:
1) Buy & Hold delivers inferior returns. Even worse, most Humans have a hard time sticking to it.
2) A simple system of either Valuation — think Shiller’s 10 Year Cyclically adjusted P/E — or Tactical application of Moving Average — Mebane Faber’s 10 Month moving average — significantly improves returns by reducing equity exposure and volatility as markets crash or have major corrections;
3) The current Fed driven markets (indeed, from 1981-2011) is an aberration that STFLR does not (and indeed, can not) anticipate. To quote either Jan L. A. van de Snepscheut or Yogi Berra: “In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is.”
Regardless of my views, I want to crowd-source the arguments pro and con for SFTLR — What does Siegel get right, what does he get wrong? What is the weakest and strongest parts of his viewpoints?
FIRE President Greg Lukianoff interviews Harvard psychology professor and bestselling author Steven Pinker about his books, the crucial role dissent plays in keeping society sane, the special importance of free speech on campus, and the origins of political correctness. Professor Pinker, a member of FIRE’s Board of Advisors, is the author of The Blank Slate, The Better Angels of our Nature, and The Stuff of Thought.
Your Sunday deep dive: “The widespread prevalence and persistence of misinformation in contemporary societies, such as the false belief that there is a link between childhood vaccinations and autism, is a matter of public concern. For example, the myths surrounding vaccinations, which prompted some parents to withhold immunization from their children, have led to a…Read More
Since its a lazy Friday before a 3 day weekend (many schools are closed for a Jewish holiday Monday), I guess its time to wax philosophical about the subject of precisely what it is you are supposed to be doing professionally. I guess its just human nature. This subject keeps coming up, and is seemly…Read More
The reality is fear and greed are part of the human condition. There are however times when it appears that the greed factor is dominating — I have not yet figured out if this is a cyclical phenomena or something more insidious. Regardless, I found this amusing: Source: Reflections of Me