Posts filed under “Philosophy”
Chart via WSJ
I have no idea where idea that “20%” somehow defines a bear market, or where it came from.
In my mind, I prefer to think of this in the context of trends. Is any market moving from lower left to upper right of the chart? That is a bull market. If the move is from upper left to lower right, its a bear market. Anything in between is a trading range.
Hence, from the recent highs back in April to today, the overall trend has been down.
Following Fridays 90/90 day, we should expect a rally to last 4-7 days, before resuming the prior trend (lower).
If we could see a 5-7% move higher, I would be looking to further lighten up my 50% exposure to equities.
Here is something that you may not think about often enough: Taking losses. Its something that every rookie trader must learn to do — and all of the TBTF banks refuse to do. Even sovereign nations seem unwilling to accept this simple fact of financial life. There will be losses. How you handle them determines…Read More
Last week, I lamented that the Bloomberg 50 was a disappointingly obvious list (the event was quite good, however). Following that (Meh!) complaint, I asked readers who was their most influential managers, thinkers, traders and strategists — who impacted their trading, thinking and investment process more than the rest of the chattering classes. For obvious…Read More
Persuasion is clearly a sort of demonstration, since we are most fully persuaded when we consider a thing to have been demonstrated Of the modes of persuasion furnished by the spoken word there are three kinds. Ethos: Persuasion is achieved by the speaker’s personal character when the speech is so spoken as to make us…Read More
In the Think Tank today, John Mauldin writes about Social Security, calling it a “Catastrophic Success.” John believes SS is a Ponzi scheme, and we disagree. He comes from a different country than I do — John lives in Texas, while I live on a small island off the East Coast of America — two completely…Read More
Conservatives and Liberals Agree: Unparalleled Levels of Inequality Is Killing Our Economy and Society Leading economists agree that rampant inequality leads to unstable economies and depressions, and makes the middle and lower classes poorer. While the stereotype is that liberals care about inequality and conservatives don’t, that is actually a myth. As Canada’s conservative National…Read More
This morning, I got to listen to a (too short) discussion with hedge fund manager Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates at the Bloomberg Market 50 Summit (video here). Ray Dalio is a fascinating guy . . . he has what some people describe as a very idiosyncratic approach, but I find it logical and intelligent….Read More