Posts filed under “Philosophy”

Buffett on Stock Prices

Its early in this potential correction, but let me remind you of Buffett’s interesting (1997) comments:

“If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef?

Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices?

These questions, of course, answer themselves. But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period?

Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the “hamburgers” they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.”

–Warren Buffett, chairman’s letter, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1997 

 
Its worth thinking about, regardless of whether the recent investor nervousness turns into something more significant . . .

 

Category: Bad Math, Investing, Philosophy

Learning From Failure: Performing an Autopsy on Dead Start Ups

  There has been relentless coverage of the boom in technology startups. Think about the blasé way the word bubble gets tossed about. Big Wall Street banks and Silicon Valley venture capital firms are wooing geek talent, and investors seem willing once again to ignore the widespread use of unconventional financial accountingthat makes a start-up’s finances look much better…Read More

Category: Philosophy, Technology, Venture Capital, Web/Tech

NFP: Is Good News Bad News?

Over the years, I have spilled far too many pixels on how overhyped the monthly nonfarm payroll report is. What matters isn’t any single month, given how noisy and subject to future revisions the provisional release actually is. The recency effect makes you place a greater emphasis on what just occurred in a data series, a sign of the evolutionary leftover code hanging around your wetware….Read More

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Philosophy

Best Commencement Speech Advice for 2015

click for ginormous graphic Source: Bloomberg

Category: Digital Media, Philosophy

Are Polls Always “Skewed” Against Republicans?

In my widely-discussed recent paper on Fox News, I suggested that its Republican bias was hurting the GOP in many ways. One specific example I raised on CNN’s “Reliable Sources” was that Republicans deluded themselves that Mitt Romney was doing better than he really was in 2012 due to cheerleading coverage on Fox, the only…Read More

Category: Financial Press, Philosophy, Politics

Then/Now

THEN Privacy NOW Everybody knows everything and despite protestations, you provide this information willingly, on Facebook, Instagram… We all want to be known, until we don’t. THEN Skirts had to cover the knee. NOW Young women raise their shirts to show their boobies and sext their friends. Pornography used to be underground, now all you…Read More

Category: Philosophy, Think Tank

Dilbert Does Keynes

Inspirational words: Source: Dilbert

Category: Humor, Philosophy

Do Strong Religious Beliefs Stifle Innovation?

Source: Real Time Economics

Category: Data Analysis, Digital Media, Philosophy, Psychology

Thinking Outside the Game

“Men in the game are blind to what men looking on see clearly.” ~ Chinese Proverb In the game of investing, the players are often the ones who are unknowingly being played… The phrase, caught up in the game, can be attributed to “blind ambition” and the emotional trappings that accompany the desire to win….Read More

Category: Investing, Philosophy

Dear Ben: Better Pace Yourself . . .

Dear Ben, If I might be so bold as to assume we can be on a first-name basis, let me be among of the first to say, congrats on the new gig! You have been quite the busy ex-Fed chairman, what with the new job and office at Brookings and a red hot new eponymous blog. Today we learned you entered into…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Humor, Philosophy, Weblogs