Posts filed under “Philosophy”
Our quote of the day comes from an article in this Sunday’s NYT magazine, Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence by Daniel Kahneman:
“The illusion of skill is not only an individual aberration; it is deeply ingrained in the culture of the [financial] industry. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions — and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem — are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them. This is particularly true of statistical studies of performance, which provide general facts that people will ignore if they conflict with their personal experience.”
I find that, unfortunately, to be terribly true.
For those of you who may be unfamiliar with Kahneman, he is a professor at Princeton and Nobel laureate. He is notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, and behavioral economics.
A fantastic quote bubbled up in comments the other day: “There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to…Read More
> The graphic above, via Jon Bruner of Forbes, reflects the enormous American contribution to Arts & Sciences over the past century. What is intriguing is not just that the US has won so many prizes, but that the a third of American Nobels have gone to immigrants to the US: “The United States has…Read More
Interesting quote from The New Yorker: “Who will be the next Steve Jobs? I doubt it will be Mark Zuckerberg. He gives every indication of being the next Bill Gates: a smart dude who has one great idea at the right time, builds a monopoly, and then keeps it by releasing stuff that’s good enough…Read More
Our Quote of the Day is over 30 years old: “There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is…Read More
Chart via WSJ > I have no idea where idea that “20%” somehow defines a bear market, or where it came from. In my mind, I prefer to think of this in the context of trends. Is any market moving from lower left to upper right of the chart? That is a bull market. If…Read More
Here is something that you may not think about often enough: Taking losses. Its something that every rookie trader must learn to do — and all of the TBTF banks refuse to do. Even sovereign nations seem unwilling to accept this simple fact of financial life. There will be losses. How you handle them determines…Read More
Last week, I lamented that the Bloomberg 50 was a disappointingly obvious list (the event was quite good, however). Following that (Meh!) complaint, I asked readers who was their most influential managers, thinkers, traders and strategists — who impacted their trading, thinking and investment process more than the rest of the chattering classes. For obvious…Read More
Persuasion is clearly a sort of demonstration, since we are most fully persuaded when we consider a thing to have been demonstrated Of the modes of persuasion furnished by the spoken word there are three kinds. Ethos: Persuasion is achieved by the speaker’s personal character when the speech is so spoken as to make us…Read More