Posts filed under “Philosophy”
“The weak recovery is proof that the Federal Reserve’s program of quantitative easement does not work.”
You do not understand the Counter-Factual.
That is the only conclusion I can draw from what the very common criticism of the Federal Reserve policies of ZIRP and QE (above), and its inherent analytical error.
The most common version goes something like this: If you do X, and there is no measurable change subsequently, X is therefore ineffective.
The problem with this “non-result result” is what would have occurred otherwise. Might “no change” be an improvement from what otherwise would have happened? Flat, last I checked is better than freefall.
If you are testing a new medication to reduce tumors, you want to see what happened to the group that did not get the tested therapy. Perhaps the control group saw tumors grew; maybe they were metastasizing throughout the body. Hence, a result where there is no increase in tumor mass or spreading would be considered a very positive outcome.
We run into the same issue with QE. In the absence of a functional congress or traditional post-recession Keynesian stimulus, the Fed is the only fgame in town. Neither you nor I truly know what the impact of QE has been.
Death is not distant, it’s inevitable, and ever-closer. No one knows anything. Confidence is a front. Everybody is insecure. No one cares about your SAT scores unless they aced the test. We’re all lonely looking to be connected. You’ll regret choices earlier in your life, but you’ll accept them. You’ll want the decade back when…Read More
“This spending of the best part of one’s life earning money in order to enjoy a questionable liberty during the least valuable part of it reminds me of the Englishman who went to India to make a fortune first, in order that he might return to England and live the life of a poet.” ~…Read More
“What you are aware of you are in control of; what you are not aware of is in control of you. You are always a slave to what you are not aware of. When you’re aware of it, you’re free from it. It’s there, but you’re not affected by it. You’re not controlled by it;…Read More
Robert P. Seawright is the Chief Investment & Information Officer for Madison Avenue Securities, a boutique broker-dealer and investment advisory firm headquartered in San Diego, California. Bob is also a columnist for Research magazine, a Contributing Editor at Portfolioist as well as a contributor to the Financial Times, The Big Picture, The Wall Street Journal’s MarketWatch, Pragmatic Capitalism, and Advisor One….Read More
> Its my annual mea culpas column for the Washington Post Business Section column. Here’s an excerpt from the column: “Once again, it is the time of year when I look back at the various investing, trading and other mistakes I’ve made. (Last year’s version is here; prior years can be found here). Why…Read More
“When will these guys ever learn that maybe, just maybe, these Fed policies aimed at targeting asset prices at levels above their intrinsic values is probably not in the best interests of the nation?” -Dave Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin, Sheff Not long ago, I was listening to former Federal Reserve…Read More
It’s a Myth that Conservatives Don’t Care About Inequality We’ve noted for years that it’s a myth that conservatives accept runaway inequality. Conservatives are very concerned about the stunning collapse of upward mobility. A poll from Gallup shows that a majority of Republicans think we’ve got too much inequality: Two out of three Americans are…Read More
click for updated futures Yesterday, we discussed the likelihood of an equity correction versus the end of the bull market. Today, futures are deep in the red, looking like another 1 percent sell-off or worse awaits us. European stocks are down 1 percent or more, with the IBEX off more than 2 percent….Read More
Josh has an excellent post up, titled Don’t Hate the Asset, Hate the Price, that makes several important points. I want to reiterate and expand on them here. Some of these are lynchpins of an investing philosophy I have been espousing for many years. Its a broad discussion on price and value, and I think…Read More