Posts filed under “Philosophy”
Once again, the markets prove that nobody knows nuthin’.
Following a bit of oil-driven turmoil the past few weeks, financial markets took off on Wednesday and Thursday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had the biggest daily back-to-back gains since March 2009. Underinvested fund managers, short-sellers and even long-only, fully invested money managers worried that they didn’t have enough global equities.
Once again, Mr. Market has confounded so many of the world’s smartest investors.
Capital markets are thought of as a mechanism for buying and selling long-term debt or equity-backed securities, but that definition falls short. Mr. Market is a philosopher, a patient teacher to those who come to class aware of the wisdom on offer. The lessons for those who pay attention to this graduate-level philosophy class are rich, deep and highly counterintuitive.
As you read the many predictions for 2105, do you remember how many strategists were forecasting a collapse in crude oil prices at the start of the year? That’s right, precisely zero.
Recall the beginning of 2014, when 72 out of 72 economists were anticipating higher rates and lower bond prices. How did that work out?
Cassandra Does Tokyo is an Investment Banker now relocated to Japan ~~~ The Risk That Will Bite You Next Is NOT The One That Bit You Last Traumatic and painful events burnish their effect upon our brains. This happens profoundly in childhood, as well as in relationships, and most definitely as readers will know, in…Read More
“We are in the business of making mistakes. The only difference between the winners and the losers is that the winners make small mistakes, while the losers make big mistakes.” -Ned Davis I began my career in finance on a trading desk. You learn some things very early on in that sort of…Read More
I stumbled on this gem earlier today: “Earlier this year, the Dow had dropped over 5,000 points in 6 months. One of the collective fallacies our culture operates under is the delusion that the market is some kind of astute forecasting machine. It is not — it represents the collective wisdom of 10 million panicked…Read More
Cassandra Does Tokyo is a former hedge fund manager and ex NY Trader, who is now living abroad. This was originally published on September 23, 2014 ~~~ When people prattle-on about tax, it is mostly made from ground-level, with a focus on tax rates. When my most rabid libertarian friends weigh in on the subject,…Read More
I have a fairly long piece coming out looking at CAPE, but for those of you interested, here are the research and resources I used: Fixing the Shiller CAPE: Accounting, Dividends, and the Permanently High Plateau PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS December 13, 2013 @Jesse_Livermore An Old Friend: The Stock Market’s Shiller P/E, Clifford S. Asness, Ph.D., AQR’s…Read More
This week’s Masters in Business Radio show is on at 10:00 am and 6:00 pm on Bloomberg Radio 1130AM and Siriux XM 119. Our guest is famed short seller and hedge fund manager Jim Chanos. You can listen to live here. All of the past Podcasts are here and at Soundcloud and coming soon to…Read More
“By setting oneself totally free of constraints, free of thoughts, free of this debilitating activity called work, free of efforts, elements hidden in the texture of reality start staring at you; then mysteries that you never thought existed emerge in front of your eyes.” ~ Nassim Nicholas Taleb Readers of this blog are likely aware…Read More