Posts filed under “Philosophy”

QOTD: 8,000 Points Later . . .

Josh calls out those who have dug their heels in and fought the tape the whole way up. Are these folks part of your daily media diet?

He notes:

“Some people need to reflect back on what they’ve been doing for the last 8,000 points. Others need to reconsider whom they’ve been listening to and what they’ve been reading all this time. Have their influencers gotten things mostly right or mostly wrong? Have they been focused on the bigger issues or missing the forest due to over-examination of each tree?

Nobody gets everything right, but small errors in judgment and minor course corrections are preferable to a complete and total inability to wake up. I know that hindsight makes everything seem obvious and this market has been anything but simple the entire way up…

If you’ve been listening to people who’ve not grasped this concept for the last few thousand points, ask yourself what you plan to do about it? What new choices will you make about the things you’ll pay attention to in the future?”

The people who have been consistently forecasting the future (as opposed to analyzing the present) have, not surprisingly been getting it wrong. What is surprising is their lack of error correction method. We expect to be wrong, have built in a recognition and admission process that prevents us from staying wrong.

This is not to suggest the world is hunky dory and there is nothing to be concerned about. However, there is an issue with those who philosophically cannot wrap their heads around equity markets going up. I am not suggesting that you need to be sanguine all the time — but your methodology has to be more than cherry picking the worst headlines and positioning your portfolio for the next crash, year after year.

There are plenty of things to be concerned about — but there always are. The recession porn crowd’s constant warning of impending doom has not exactly been adding value to your media diet — or your portfolio.

Instead, try watching inputs and data instead of headlines. Consider signals like the A/D line, equity valuations and trend. I find that  is a more productive use of my time than indulging in recession port and fighting the tape the whole way up.

As we have discussed repeatedly, what you read and who you listen to can have a significant impact on your net wealth.

Choose your Yodas wisely.
 

 
Previously:
Q&A: The Price of Paying Attention  (November 3rd, 2012)

After a recession, the least rational rise (temporarily) to prominence. Ignore them.  (June 4, 2011)

Category: Philosophy, Really, really bad calls

Where Is ‘the Party’ Now?

Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded. ~ Yogi Berra As a philosopher-type, I like to use metaphors; they can be effective in painting an abstract picture that enables universal understanding. But metaphors can also provide a means to concrete translation for the individual. In a non-philosophical description, metaphors can be instructive and entertaining. So…Read More

Category: Philosophy, Psychology, Think Tank

Blame Politicos, Not Reinhart & Rogoff

  “A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices.” -William James   Reinhart and Rogoff are being blamed for the damaging, widespread adaption of post-crisis austerity programs in Europe and in the United States. This reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how political decision get made. Regardless of what…Read More

Category: Economy, Philosophy, Politics, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Warren Buffett Explains ‘Colorful Charlie’

After a marathon question-and-answer session with shareholders, Becky Quick asks Warren Buffett to comment on some of Charlie Munger’s best lines.

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Category: Philosophy, Short Selling, Video

Predicting Jobs Data Is Hard — and Useless, Too.

his morning, I tweeted out Spencer Jakab’s WSJ column on NFP — It’s a Hard Job Predicting Payrolls Number, with the annotation “Its pointless, too.” While I understand the obligation many economists have to their employers to make a jobs forecast, you have no such obligation. You don’t have to make a prediction, weigh in, make…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Philosophy

How Tough Are You?

      Rocky Balboa: “Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain’t all sunshine and rainbows. It is a very mean and nasty place and I don’t care how tough you are, it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or…Read More

Category: Philosophy, Weekend

Spring Break for Nerds

Source: Spring Break for Nerds: A skeptic learns the secret to South by Southwest’s success NOREEN MALONE New Republic, APRIL 26, 2013 http://www.newrepublic.com/article/112904/south-southwest-spring-break-nerds#

Category: Digital Media, Philosophy

Interview: Ned Davis, NDR

  “We are in the business of making mistakes. The only difference between the winners and the losers is that the winners make small mistakes, while the losers make big mistakes.” -Ned Davis   If you are a regular main street investor, you may never heard of Ned Davis. If you are a market technician,…Read More

Category: Philosophy, Psychology, Sentiment, Technical Analysis

Did Reinhart-Rogoff Screw Up Their Debt Research?

Holy Snikes, this is HUGE, from Mike Konczal: “In 2010, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff released a paper, “Growth in a Time of Debt.” Their “main result is that…median growth rates for countries with public debt over 90 percent of GDP are roughly one percent lower than otherwise; average (mean) growth rates are several…Read More

Category: Credit, Philosophy, Really, really bad calls

Louis CK: I Am An Accidental White Person

    Interesting read: “Coming here and observing America as an outsider [from Mexico] made me an observing person”

Category: Humor, Philosophy, Weekend