Posts filed under “Politics”

Presidential Polling Data Resources

While the polls bounce around, I’ve discovered a few sites with permanent links to consistently informative data. These pages have distinguished themselves:

1) electoral vote.com:

Simply a graphic depiction of these here United States, with polling data broken down by states and their electoral votes. See this chart as an example:

Click for larger graphic
ev_aug06
graphic courtesy of electoral vote.com

The Electoral Vote Predictor right now shows Kerry at 280, and Bush at 258. These numbers fluctuate quite frequently as Florida and Ohio vacillates between “Barely Kerry” and “Barely Bush.”

2) Professor Pollkatz

The good prof has a terrific, meticulous scatter chart of ALL the polling data; Its never the single data point, and always the trend that matters most.

Here’s a recent example:

Click for larger graphic
pollkatzmainGRAPHICS_8911_image001
graphic courtesy of pollkatz

See also the Professor’s analysis of which pollsters have the greatest “Fudge Factors

3) Polling Report: bills itself as “an independent, nonpartisan resource on trends in American public opinion.” I think thats a good description. There’s a wealth of data here that is simply very accessable and quite usable.

Click for larger graphic
FOXfav
graphic courtesy of Polling Report

Be sure to check out their National Barometer Trend Lines also.

4) Real Clear Politics

How could I forget RCP? Their list of all the polls out there provides a numerical snapshot (compared with Pollkatz’s graphical view) of the race. Terrific resource.

Click for larger graphic
rcp_polls
Graphic courtesy of Real Clear Politics

There are only two mainstream media sites included here: The Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal.

5) The Washington Post has a permanent link that tracks a variety of issues, as well as providing detailed data of their methodology.

Click for larger graphic
chartingCandidates_top8
Graphic courtesy of The Washington Post

See also this link for their recent graph.

6) The WSJ gets included, despite having a not quite permanent link. They offer terrific perspectives and charts on the Battleground Swing States:

Click for larger graphic
200_infobattleground040802map
Graphic courtesy of WSJ

There’s some more commentary on the post convention Journal report here.

Sources:
electoral vote.com

http://electoral-vote.com/

Professor Pollkatz

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/

Polling Report

http://www.pollingreport.com/

Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

WSJ: Battlegrounds States Poll – August 2, 2004

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-1006print.html

Category: Politics

Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 8/2/04

Category: Politics

Washington Post-ABC Post DNC Poll

Category: Politics

WSJ: Why Some Think a Kerry Win Could Boost the Stock Market

Interesting observations from the WSJ this weekend:

“The market has a problem with the possibility of a Democrat winning, but doesn’t seem to have a problem with the reality of a Democratic president,” says Tom Gallagher, an analyst at economic-research firm International Strategy & Investment in Washington, D.C. Mr. Gallagher also notes that the market tends to do better under Democratic presidents than under Republicans.”

The article (see link below) is chock full of other counter-intuitive observations. Consider, for rexample . . .

Read More

Category: Finance, Politics

Category: Politics

Money & Politics

Category: Politics

Confusing Politics With Economics

Category: Politics

Battleground States

Category: Politics

Confusing Cause & Effect

Category: Finance, Politics

Wall Street reaction to key events during the Bush term

Category: Finance, Politics