Posts filed under “Politics”

Presidential Polling Data Resources

Back by popular demand, originally published August 6, 2004

While the polls bounce around, I’ve discovered a few sites with permanent links to consistently informative data. These pages have distinguished themselves:

1) electoral

Simply a graphic depiction of these here United States, with polling data broken down by states and their electoral votes. See this chart as an example:

Click for larger graphic
graphic courtesy of electoral

The Electoral Vote Predictor right now shows Kerry at 280, and Bush at 258. These numbers fluctuate quite frequently as Florida and Ohio vacillates between “Barely Kerry” and “Barely Bush.”

2) Professor Pollkatz

The good prof has a terrific, meticulous scatter chart of ALL the polling data; Its never the single data point, and always the trend that matters most.

Here’s a recent example:

Click for larger graphic
graphic courtesy of pollkatz

See also the Professor’s analysis of which pollsters have the greatest “Fudge Factors

3) Polling Report: bills itself as “an independent, nonpartisan resource on trends in American public opinion.” I think thats a good description. There’s a wealth of data here that is simply very accessable and quite usable.

Click for larger graphic
graphic courtesy of Polling Report

Be sure to check out their National Barometer Trend Lines also.

4) Real Clear Politics

How could I forget RCP? Their list of all the polls out there provides a numerical snapshot (compared with Pollkatz’s graphical view) of the race. Terrific resource.

Click for larger graphic
Graphic courtesy of Real Clear Politics

There are only two mainstream media sites included here: The Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal.

5) The Washington Post has a permanent link that tracks a variety of issues, as well as providing detailed data of their methodology.

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Graphic courtesy of The Washington Post

See also this link for their recent graph.

6) The WSJ gets included, despite having a not quite permanent link. They offer terrific perspectives and charts on the Battleground Swing States:

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Graphic courtesy of WSJ

There’s some more commentary on the post convention Journal report here.


Professor Pollkatz

Polling Report

Washington Post

WSJ: Battlegrounds States Poll – August 2, 2004

Category: Politics

Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 11/01/04

Category: Politics

And the winner is . . .

Category: Politics

Last of the Swing States?

Category: Politics

Big Biz Bails on Bush?

Category: Politics

Can Colorado Swing ?

Category: Politics

It’s not a community that any party has a lock on,” says Ismael Ahmed, the executive director of Access, the biggest Arab-American social services agency in the country, which is based in Dearborn. “Especially a community like this one where 60% weren’t born here. We’re not really committed to either party.”

“We were motivated when we backed Bush and we are motivated now,” says Osama Sablini, Aapac’s chairman and publisher of the Arab American newspaper, who backed Mr Bush four years ago. “The Bush administration has been a major disappointment to this community and we cannot afford four more years of this.”
-Under siege since 9/11, Arab voters shift to Kerry

When the dust settles on this election, a significant shift will have taken place in several key demographics. Due to a random twist of fate, this will be especially true in the swing states.

The resulting shift in traditional party affiliations could very well throw the election to the challenger.

Since early this year, we’ve been watching a number of key voting blocs “flip flop” (sorry) away from their prior voting patterns. The demographic ethnic groups with the greatest potential to impact the 2004 Presdiential election are both Cubans and Hispanics in Florida, and the Arabs-Americans in the Midwest.

On numerous occasions this year, we have noted, Cuban American voters in Florida continues to be a potential problem for President Bush in the upcoming election. Further, we similarly observed that the President’s support amongst Arab American’s have tumbled, and significantly for this election, in the swing states.

Whether this is a permanent change of party affiliation, or just a reaction to the present regime, is unknown. But it is clear that major changes are taking place. So says The Guardian:

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Category: Politics

Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 10/19/04

Category: Politics

The Bush vs. Kerry Ratio revisited

Category: Politics

GOP Pickup in Congress?

Category: Politics