Posts filed under “Politics”

More polling data

Rasmussen Reports poll

Bush-Cheney         47
Kerry-Edwards       47
Nader-Camejo         2
Other                3

Sept. 5-7, 2004. 3,000 likely voters
Margin of error +/- 2 percentage points.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll

Bush-Cheney        52
Kerry-Edwards      45
Nader-Camejo        1
No Opinion          2

Sept. 3-5, 2004. 778 likely voters
Margin of error +/- 4 percentage points.

Newsweek poll

Bush-Cheney        52
Kerry-Edwards      41
Nader-Camejo        3
Other/Undecided     4

Sept. 2-3, 2004. 1,008 registered voters
Margin of error +/- 4 percentage points.

Time poll

Bush-Cheney       52
Kerry-Edwards     42
Nader-Camejo       3
Unsure             3

Aug. 31-Sept. 2, 2004. 926 likely voters
Margin of error +/- 4 percentage points.

Zogby America poll

Bush-Cheney       46
Kerry-Edwards     43
Nader-Camejo       3
Unsure             8

Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2004. 1,001 likely voters
Margin of error +/- 3.2 percentage points.

American Research Group poll

Bush-Cheney       47
Kerry-Edwards     47
Nader-Camejo       3
Unsure             3

Aug. 30-Sept. 1, 2004. 800 likely voters
Margin of error +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Bush Gets Modest Bounce, Leads in Several New Polls
September 7, 2004 4:04 p.m.,,SB108792552424744155,00.html

Category: Politics

Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 9/07/04

Category: Politics

Is President Bush a closet Keynesian?

Category: Finance, Politics

It’s Not Always The Economy, Stupid

Category: Finance, Politics

WSJ: Inflation Data not good for the incumbent

Category: Finance, Politics

Bush Support Among Arab Americans Tumbles

Category: Politics

Kinda Late to be “Solidfying the Base”

Category: Politics


Category: Finance, Media, Politics

WSJ: Polls reveal hurdles for Bush

Category: Politics

Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 8/23/04


click for larger chart
Chart courtesy of WSJ

Yet another fascinating poll, courtesy of WSJ. The recent SBVFT commercials seemed to have had an impact nationally, narrowing the gap between the challenger and the incumbent. According to this most recent WSJ/Zogby poll, conducted Aug. 16-21, there seems to be little impact in the Battleground States. Kerry now leads in 14 states (up from 13 early August). President Bush leads in two states.”

Here’s the Journals take on the polling data’s internals:

The contest for the White House remains tight, according to the latest Zogby Interactive poll of likely voters in 16 battleground states. Although the map is awash in blue, with President Bush leading in only two of the battleground states, down from the three states he held three weeks ago, the results in three-quarters of the states in the survey are within the margin of error — meaning those states remain very hotly contested. Mr. Kerry holds the top spot in 14 of the 16 polled states, up from 13 in the previous poll.

Mr. Bush’s lead is outside the margin of error in one state, but it’s a key one: Ohio. Only two 20th-century presidents have been elected without carrying the Buckeye State, and no Republican has won the White House without Ohio’s support since the party was founded in 1854. Mr. Kerry has top spots outside the margin in three states: Oregon, Washington and electoral-vote rich Pennsylvania.

In addition, several states continue to switch their allegiances. The survey results were closest in Florida and Missouri, where the margins between the two candidates are less than one percentage point. Both states, with their total of 38 electoral votes, have flipped between Messrs. Bush and Kerry more than once, most recently landing in the Democratic column. Similarly, the two states Mr. Bush leads in this poll, Ohio and West Virginia, have been led by both candidates at different points in the poll series. For further analysis of how these results could play out in the Electoral College, view this article

RNC in NY in one week . . .

Battlegrounds States Poll – August 23, 2004

Interactive version

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Category: Politics