Posts filed under “Politics”

Don’t Let Bias Corrupt Your Analysis

Those of you who over the many years have followed some of the thoughts and observations I jot down each morning may have noticed several themes. Prominent among them is that forecasting is folly; cognitive errors create investing mistakes; consider context when analyzing data; recency bias overemphasizes the latest data; mixing politics with investing is a costly mistake.

Which brings us to an article in the National Review that managed to combine many if not all of these themes: “2014′s Jobs Boom Wasn’t Even Much of a Boom. Does This Jobs Report Mean It’s Already Over?

As I noted back in 2011, “When you are in the polling booth, vote however you like; but when you are reviewing your investing options, it is best to do so with a cold, dispassionate eye.”

The same is true for analyzing economic data. Those of you who zestfully pursue politics will dislike this analysis, for it points out the many errors of your ways. You are not my intended audience; rather, the people who are actual investors will find this useful (and perhaps it will save them some money).

Let’s have a look review some of these analytical errors. 

 

Continues here: Political Bias Corrupts Economic Analysis

 

 

 

Category: Analysts, Cognitive Foibles, Politics, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Confused Person’s Guide to Middle East Conflict

Source: The Atlantic

Category: Digital Media, Politics, War/Defense

2015 Farm Bill Essentials

Cool article about the transition away from much of the traditional corporate farm price supports. Now if we could only get rid of that damned ethanol subsidy . . .   click for ginormous interactive graphic/article Source: Bloomberg

Category: Politics

Gay Discrimination Is A Billion Dollar Self-Indulgence

By now, you have surely heard about Indiana’s so-called Religious Freedom Restoration Act and its potential for giving cover to those who discriminate against gay people. A backlash that had already been gathering momentum burst open this weekend, driven by an op-ed by Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook in the Washington Post. As Cook wrote:…Read More

Category: Legal, Politics, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

Shifting Sands in Middle East

Interesting collection of shifting alliances in the Middle East:   Source: WSJ

Category: Digital Media, Politics, War/Defense

Source: Washington Post

Category: Politics, Science, UnGuru

IMF Credit Outstanding By Member

Source: Capsidea

Category: Credit, Economy, Politics

Sovereign Risk Indicator

Click for an interactive graphic. Source: BlackRock

Category: Credit, Digital Media, Politics

Fed Gives Congress Room to Shirk Resposibility

One of my favorite thought experiments is the careful-what-you-wish-for scenario. I was reminded of its utility during Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony the other day. Consider the critique of the Fed by some members of Congress. As the New York Times described it, the three-hour hearing was “testy” as “Republicans on the House Financial…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Politics, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

ISIS May Be Losing a Lifeline

Source: Washington Post

Category: Digital Media, Politics, War/Defense