Posts filed under “Politics”

Look Out Below, Government Shutdown Edition

click for updated futures
Futes 9.30.137

 

 

I have some good news and some bad news.

The bad news? Well, as the futures above shows, US markets are under lots of pressure, widely blamed on the economic impact of the likely shut down of government tonight at midnight. Shutting down nearly 25% of an already fragile economy is hardly the recipe for growth and advancement.

The good news is that so far, all we have is political posturing. History suggest that nothing happens until at least 12 hours after our September 30th midnight deadline. No one gets serious about any sort of deal before noon on October 1. At that point, political pressure on the House Republicans — from constituents, from Business leaders, and from elder statesmen — will start in earnest. A few days later, it can become more intense. We see the same sort of patterns with the debt ceiling limit as well (that’s schedule to hit at midnight October 17).

As NBC’s Pete Williams have reported, we have had 17 prior government shutdowns over the past 40 years, including 21 days in 1995 (table below). So while this feels like its new and unusual, it is actually more commonplace than most of us believe.

 

shut downs

 

The odds favor a resolution in a matter of days or weeks.

 

 

See also:

• First U.S. Shutdown in 17 Years at Midnight Seen Probable (Bloomberg)

• The Odd Story of the Law That Dictates How Government Shutdowns Work (The Atlantic)

• Wall Street Uneasy in Face of Government Shutdown (Dealbook)

• Government shutdown would threaten fragile economy (Politico)

• House Republicans Push Obamacare Delay as Shutdown Nears (Bloomberg)

• Debt ceiling fandango: the key dates (FT Alphaville)

• Government Shutdown Near as House Votes to Delay Obamacare (Bloomberg)

Krugman: Rebels Without a Clue (NYT)

• ‘Political Shenanigans’ Take Center Stage, Hitting Risk Appetite (MoneyBeat)

• The Right Gets Its ’60s (NYT)

Category: Investing, Markets, Politics, Really, really bad calls

Poll: 68% Say Washington on Wrong Track

click for ginormous graphic Source: Bloomberg   Most Americans say the country is on the wrong track: “Americans also are pessimistic about the course of the country, with 68 percent saying it’s headed in the wrong direction, the most in two years, according to the poll of 1,000 adults conducted Sept. 20-23.” Note this is…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Politics

Investing Around ObamaCare

I was at an interesting dinner last, and amongst the very notable things discussed over giant steaks (yes, that is an actual dinner photo), ObamaCare came up. Some of the attendees thought — like Senator Ted Cruz does — that it is a job killer, the bane of the economy. But that is essentially a…Read More

Category: Investing, Politics, Psychology

Screwed By SCRIE Screed

@TBPInvictus I recently got an education on a loophole in a NYC program that is designed to protect seniors on fixed incomes from rising rents. The Senior Citizen Rent Increase Exemption Program claims that: “Tenants who qualify for the Senior Citizen Rent Increase Exemption (SCRIE) Program can have their rent frozen at their current level and…Read More

Category: Legal, Politics, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

Translated into Truth: On Summers Withdrawing Name

Here’s what President Barack Obama‘s statement on Lawrence Summers‘s decision to withdraw his name from consideration to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve would have looked like after 40 milligrams of Sodium thiopental: “Earlier today, I spoke with Larry Summers and accepted his decision to withdraw his name from consideration for Chairman of…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Politics

QOTD: “One Party State”

This was the old state of affairs in the USA: “There is only one party in the United States, the Property Party… and it has two right wings: Republican and Democrat. Republicans are a bit stupider, more rigid, more doctrinaire in their laissez-faire capitalism than the Democrats, who are cuter, prettier, a bit more corrupt…Read More

Category: Politics

This Town: Glitz and Greed in Washington

Mark Leibovich on Glitz and Greed in Washington

August 23, 2013

Bill talks with journalist Mark Leibovich about his latest book, This Town, a city where money rules the day and status is determined by who you know and what they can do for you. “If you can sell yourself as someone who knows how Washington works, someone who has these relationships,” Leibovich explains, “that’s a very marketable commodity. If you’re seen as someone who knows how this town works, someone who is a usual suspect in this town, you can dine out for years — that’s why no one leaves.”

Category: Politics, Video

Reshaping NYC: Interactive NYT Looks at the Bloomberg Mayoralty

The follow up to the NYT”s Snowfall, this one looks at how the city has changed over the course of 12 years with Mayor Mike at the helm.   click for ginormous interactive site Source: NYT  

Category: Digital Media, Politics

Summers vs. Yellen Scorecard: Who’s Supporting Whom?

Via, Real Time Economics, here is the latest scorecard on who supports the leading two Fed Chief candidates:   Click to enlarge Source: Real Time Economics

Category: Digital Media, Federal Reserve, Politics

Year 2 in 4 Year Presidential Cycle

Click to enlarge Source: The Chart Store via All Star Charts   We have not looked at the Presidential Cycle in some time (See this, this and this from 2005). Regardless, it is something that people often fail to contextualize correctly: What the chart above shows is the historical average of the 4 year presidential…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Politics, Technical Analysis