Posts filed under “Politics”
I have some good news and some bad news.
The bad news? Well, as the futures above shows, US markets are under lots of pressure, widely blamed on the economic impact of the likely shut down of government tonight at midnight. Shutting down nearly 25% of an already fragile economy is hardly the recipe for growth and advancement.
The good news is that so far, all we have is political posturing. History suggest that nothing happens until at least 12 hours after our September 30th midnight deadline. No one gets serious about any sort of deal before noon on October 1. At that point, political pressure on the House Republicans — from constituents, from Business leaders, and from elder statesmen — will start in earnest. A few days later, it can become more intense. We see the same sort of patterns with the debt ceiling limit as well (that’s schedule to hit at midnight October 17).
As NBC’s Pete Williams have reported, we have had 17 prior government shutdowns over the past 40 years, including 21 days in 1995 (table below). So while this feels like its new and unusual, it is actually more commonplace than most of us believe.
The odds favor a resolution in a matter of days or weeks.
• First U.S. Shutdown in 17 Years at Midnight Seen Probable (Bloomberg)
• The Odd Story of the Law That Dictates How Government Shutdowns Work (The Atlantic)
• Wall Street Uneasy in Face of Government Shutdown (Dealbook)
• Government shutdown would threaten fragile economy (Politico)
• House Republicans Push Obamacare Delay as Shutdown Nears (Bloomberg)
• Debt ceiling fandango: the key dates (FT Alphaville)
• Government Shutdown Near as House Votes to Delay Obamacare (Bloomberg)
• Krugman: Rebels Without a Clue (NYT)
• ‘Political Shenanigans’ Take Center Stage, Hitting Risk Appetite (MoneyBeat)
• The Right Gets Its ’60s (NYT)
click for ginormous graphic Source: Bloomberg Most Americans say the country is on the wrong track: “Americans also are pessimistic about the course of the country, with 68 percent saying it’s headed in the wrong direction, the most in two years, according to the poll of 1,000 adults conducted Sept. 20-23.” Note this is…Read More
I was at an interesting dinner last, and amongst the very notable things discussed over giant steaks (yes, that is an actual dinner photo), ObamaCare came up. Some of the attendees thought — like Senator Ted Cruz does — that it is a job killer, the bane of the economy. But that is essentially a…Read More
@TBPInvictus I recently got an education on a loophole in a NYC program that is designed to protect seniors on fixed incomes from rising rents. The Senior Citizen Rent Increase Exemption Program claims that: “Tenants who qualify for the Senior Citizen Rent Increase Exemption (SCRIE) Program can have their rent frozen at their current level and…Read More
Here’s what President Barack Obama‘s statement on Lawrence Summers‘s decision to withdraw his name from consideration to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve would have looked like after 40 milligrams of Sodium thiopental: “Earlier today, I spoke with Larry Summers and accepted his decision to withdraw his name from consideration for Chairman of…Read More
This was the old state of affairs in the USA: “There is only one party in the United States, the Property Party… and it has two right wings: Republican and Democrat. Republicans are a bit stupider, more rigid, more doctrinaire in their laissez-faire capitalism than the Democrats, who are cuter, prettier, a bit more corrupt…Read More
Mark Leibovich on Glitz and Greed in Washington
August 23, 2013
Bill talks with journalist Mark Leibovich about his latest book, This Town, a city where money rules the day and status is determined by who you know and what they can do for you. “If you can sell yourself as someone who knows how Washington works, someone who has these relationships,” Leibovich explains, “that’s a very marketable commodity. If you’re seen as someone who knows how this town works, someone who is a usual suspect in this town, you can dine out for years — that’s why no one leaves.”
Click to enlarge Source: The Chart Store via All Star Charts We have not looked at the Presidential Cycle in some time (See this, this and this from 2005). Regardless, it is something that people often fail to contextualize correctly: What the chart above shows is the historical average of the 4 year presidential…Read More