Posts filed under “Psychology”

RIP Paul Macrae Montgomery, originator of Magazine Cover Indicator

hemline

 

Paul Macrae Montgomery, best known as the originator of the Time Magazine Cover Indicator, and for popularizing the Hemline Indicator of the stock market, died this weekend. He was 72.

I was fortunate to have had several conversations with Mongomery over the years. He was humble and soft spoken but he took delight in puncturing the bad theories that pass for analysis on Wall Street.

Long before behavioral economics became popular, he argued that standard economic theories “overlooked the human factor in markets.”

Continues here

 

 

 

 

Category: Analysts, Markets, Psychology

Is Modern Life Making Us Dumber?

Forget “Peak Oil” and “Peak Credit” … Are We On the Downslope of “Peak Intelligence”?   Scientists say that we have much smaller brains than our ancestors had 20,000 years ago … and we might have gotten stupider since agriculture became widespread. Huffington Post reports that we’ve probably gotten dumber than even our Victorian ancestors:…Read More

Category: Psychology, Think Tank, Web/Tech

Behavioral Economics and Macroeconomic Models

Category: Psychology, Think Tank

Ponzi Scheme Tracker

Cool data collection

Category: Investing, Legal, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Skepticism Leads to More Market Momentum

Amid a wealth of potential problems, markets are now close to record highs. Military conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza and Ukraine are an unending source of concern. Domestically, economic growth remains below potential. The civil strife in Ferguson, Missouri, reveals the U.S. to be a nation even more divided than previously thought by many. At…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Markets, Psychology

Why should investors care about geopolitics?

One of the concerns for investors is how markets keep powering higher despite all of the geopolitical turmoil: The grinding Syrian civil war that has spilled into Iraq, the clash between Israel and Gaza, the Crimea annexation and now the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. That thinking gets the issue precisely backward. The proper question…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, War/Defense

Smarter and Less Smart As We Age

Academic Eric Johnson explains the impact of intelligence on finances at an Atlanta Fed Public Affairs Forum

 

 

Via Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Psychology, Video

Ariely: Our Buggy Moral Code

Behavioral economist Dan Ariely studies the bugs in our moral code: the hidden reasons we think it’s OK to cheat or steal (sometimes). Clever studies help make his point that we’re predictably irrational — and can be influenced in ways we can’t grasp.   Published on Apr 26, 2012

Category: Psychology, Weekend

Last month, I spilled a considerable number of pixels explaining why Rupert Murdoch’s Time Warner bid had no significance to whether or not this is a market top. My short list included complaints of cherry picked data that somehow ignored most of Murdoch’s M&A activity over the past half century; a laughably small sample size…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Trading

The 2% Mindset

Perhaps this morning’s post on mediocrity makes this seem appropriate today:     Source: Trader Cabal

Category: Digital Media, Psychology