Posts filed under “Psychology”

The Billionaire Pessimists Club

Pardon the delay:  I was planning on putting this up Tuesday, but I didn’t want to make this look like log rolling (after Tim was so complimentary).

Great post from Tim at the Mess that Greenspan Made:

We’ve
heard many times from Warren Buffet about the difficult road ahead for
the U.S. economy – the dollar, the perils of living in Squanderville, and the ascendant Sharecropper Society are his most notable objections to the rosy picture painted by Wall Street economists and government officials.

Even Mr. Buffet’s much younger, slightly richer, sometimes side-kick, and occasional bridge buddy Bill Gates has been rather down on the dollar lately due to rapidly accumulating debt and the plethora of promises made by the U.S. government.

George Soros and Jim Rogers of Quantum Fund fame are bearish on Bush economic policies and bullish on commodities,
respectively. Both of these views bode ill for the American way of life
as it has been known for the last half century. That is, the American
way of life for most of the citizenry – for the upper few percent of
the populace, rising energy and raw material costs are more than offset
by a reduced tax burden.

Sir John Templeton has been predicting a U.S. real estate disaster for some time now, and Bill Gross at Pimco has likened the current state of affairs to Rome burning, and much worse.

What do all these gentlemen have in common?

They
are all billionaires, they all speak freely, and they all have very
serious concerns about the course that the nation’s economy has charted.

Is anyone listening to them?


Tim does great work; If you haven’t been reading his blog (The Mess that Greenspan Made), you are missing out on insightful commentary . . .

Category: Investing, Psychology

Margin Debt Hits 5-Year High

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

P/E Expansion and Contraction

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

How Bullish is the Investing Public?

Category: Psychology

Death of Volatility

Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis, Trading

P/E vs S&P 500 (50 Years)

As promised, today brings us to the 4th in our series of charts: P/E vs S&P500 click for larger chart courtesy of Mike Panzner, Rabo Securities > I’ll get into the significance of what this means to the markets later, but for now, note where the P/E is over the median, and its impact on…Read More

Category: Earnings, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

100 Year Dow Jones Industrials Chart

Have a look at this 100 year (actually, 105-Year) chart. I colored each “Market” appropriately — Green for Bull, and Red for Bear — to more clearly show what happens. Bull markets get ahead of themselves. At their ends, they tend towards excesses that take a very long while to recover from. When a long…Read More

Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

How Blind Are We to Our Own Shortcomings?

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Psychology

Stuff Doesn’t Make You Happy . . .

Category: Psychology

1994 Parallel?

Category: Psychology