Posts filed under “Psychology”

Fundamentally Speaking . . .

On Wednesday morn, Doug Kass opined:

Fundamentally Speaking

The fundamental
problems
with the market run deep.

  • We live in a world in which the consumer is spent-up, not pent-up. If you
    don’t believe me, the Federal
    Reserve
    expanded on this subject last week. It is inevitable that the
    American consumer will cease its consumption binge of the last decade and begin
    to retrench and save as the one-time benefit of refinancing cash-outs slows to a
    trickle.

  • A parabolic boom in housing prices in certain "hot" regions of the U.S. –
    and abroad — has stretched the relationship between household incomes to
    housing prices to levels never, ever seen in the last century.

  • Spring 2006 will mark a substantive resetting of rates on adjustable-rate
    and teaser mortgage loans, pressing the consumer ever more.

  • Our economy’s foundation is based on an asset-appreciation dependency,
    compared to past cycles which relied on income and wage growth.

  • I continue to reject the government’s notion that inflation is in retreat.
    Inflation statistics delivered by the BLS are works of fiction, as stubbornly
    high energy prices, tuition, food, housing, commodities, insurance and other
    costs are serving to pressure the consumers’ real disposable incomes.

  • The 28-year high in corporate profit margins is unsustainable
    and likely to revert closer to the mean as (1) the benefits of four years of
    cost cutting subside, and (2) cost pressures overcome pricing power.

  • A more hawkish Federal Reserve will raise federal funds to higher levels
    than the consensus expected.

  • (Notwithstanding the results from various investor surveys) the body of
    investors to be overly complacent (with a high measure of bullish conceit) as
    fear and doubt had been driven from Wall Street.
  • >

    Source:
    A Second Shot Across the Bow?
    Doug Kass
    Street Insight,3/1/2006 8:39 AM EST
    http://www.thestreet.com/i/dps/te/theedge1.html#entryId10271033

    Category: Earnings, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Psychology, Real Estate

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    Category: Apprenticed Investor, Data Analysis, Psychology

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    Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Psychology, Taxes and Policy

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    Category: Earnings, Economy, Psychology

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    Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

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    Category: Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Psychology

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    Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

    Debate 101

    Category: Psychology

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    Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

    Q&A: Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Reports

    Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology