Posts filed under “Psychology”
Maybe this will help explain the street’s obsession with running any and every piece of data is through a “Fed lens . . .”
As the chart below shows, monthly gains this Fed cycle show two distinct phases: From March 2003 until the June 2004, while the Fed was either easing or held rates at 1%, the S&P’s total return was 39%, or a 2.7% monthly average (in Red, below).
Monthly S&P500 Gains/Losses (7 year)
Since then, the S&P has generated weaker returns — about 18%, or less than 0.6% a month (in Blue, above).
Quote of the Day:
“A bull market tends to bail you out of all your mistakes. Conversely, bear markets make you PAY for your mistakes.”
-Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters
In the past, I have warned against relying on the magazine cover indicator for specific companies. There are some very specific caveats on this here. The reason for this is that, in my experience, the Cover Indicator is useful for determining when large social phenomena are reaching an emotional crescendo. Oftentimes, emotions take over at…Read More