Posts filed under “Psychology”

Chart of the Week: Monthly S&P500 Gains/Losses (7 year)

Maybe this will help explain the street’s obsession with running any and every piece of data is through a “Fed lens . . .”

As the chart below shows, monthly gains this Fed cycle show two distinct phases: From March 2003 until the June 2004, while the Fed was either easing or held rates at 1%, the S&P’s total return was 39%, or a 2.7% monthly average (in Red, below).

Monthly S&P500 Gains/Losses (7 year)


Sources: Barron’s and Bob Bronson

Since then, the S&P has generated weaker returns — about 18%, or less than 0.6% a month (in Blue, above).


Random Items

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H-1B Visa Debate        

Labor Shortage in China May Lead to Trade Shift

Longer-Term Comparison of Housing Prices in Europe and the US

Survivor Bias and Improper Measurement in the Mutual Fund

The New York Times Website Redesign (follows the WSJ’s)

Barbarians of suburbs target French Jews


Quote of the Day: 

“A bull market tends to bail you out of all your mistakes. Conversely, bear markets make you PAY for your mistakes.” 
-Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters

Category: Federal Reserve, Investing, Psychology

6 Strategies for Q2

Category: Markets, Psychology, Trading

“The squalls never matter until they hit”

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Compare and Contrast: Millionaires versus 18 – 40 Demographic

Category: Economy, Psychology, Retail, Wages & Income

Mid-East Stock Slide

Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Barron’s: Buh-bye to Citibank Panic Euphoria Measure?

Category: Financial Press, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Been Down So Long (It looks like up to me)

Category: Economy, Financial Press, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Where are the Bears?

Category: Financial Press, Investing, Markets, Psychology

The Single Company Magazine Cover Indicator

In the past, I have warned against relying on the magazine cover indicator for specific companies. There are some very specific caveats on this here. The reason for this is that, in my experience, the Cover Indicator is useful for determining when large social phenomena are reaching an emotional crescendo. Oftentimes, emotions take over at…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Bulls & Bulls

Category: Financial Press, Psychology