Posts filed under “Psychology”

Google, or something else?

Yesterday, I asked a benign question over at RM’s columnist conversation:   

How much of this selloff is really attributable to Google?

No one answered the question.

Instead, I got the usual "Bear"accusations — despite my uncomfortably Bullish 1H 2006 call (Cody was an exception). I was told that my question was a demand for the Bulls to restate their case (it was nothing of the sort). And I interpreted a reminder that markets had rallied 8.5% since the lows, as an implication that "Bearish Barry" has somehow missed the run.

So as I had promised I would do in Debate 101, I ignored those comments. Instead, I noted the following:

if I am still Bullish short term . . .

For those of you who may not be familiar with my market positions, I have
been (uncomfortably) Bullish since June 2005, and but for a brief period before
and after Katrina, I have stayed that way (miserably, may I add).

As the Cult
of the Bear
trio explained, I am of the belief that the market is topping
out sometime 1H, and likely Q1 2006. It then turns rather Bearish for the next
few Qs.

Last night, I wrote a commentary that went out to our Research clients today,
advising them to "Get Darwinian on their Portfolios."

What does "Get Darwinian" mean? I suggest its time to "Cull the herd" –
excise the weak, the sick, the lame from your holdings. That doesn’t mean dump
everything, and its not a market timing call or a declaration of a top — yet.
But the increasingly narrow advance suggests to me that it is now time to lose
the stocks that are not participating in the rally off the June or October lows.

That’s about as much restraint as I could muster . . .

For the record, Google was, IMHO, a small part of yesterday’s difficult session:

-Crude prices rose smartly;
-The Yield Curve Inversion widened further;
-Ongoing signs that stimulus is fading;
-The US economy continues to show signs of general slowing;
-The Dollar took a beating;
-Bonds rose steadily all day;
-Gold rallied;

Joanie summed it up beautifullly:  "I wonder why stocks, against this crystal clear macroeconomic backdrop, can only see Google? Oops. Forgot. The market can only focus on one thing at a time. Too bad. Next case."

I find it hard to disagree with her logic. . . .

Category: Earnings, Economy, Psychology

Loaded for Bear: Walter Deemer Interview

Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Fed: Stagnant Net Worth for Typical US Family

Category: Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Psychology

Once Again, Late to the Party?

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

Debate 101

Category: Psychology

Part II — Q&A: Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Reports

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Q&A: Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Reports

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

Twilight of the Blogs

Category: Financial Press, Media, Psychology, Weblogs

The Longest 8th Inning in the History of Baseball

Category: Federal Reserve, Investing, Markets, Psychology

What I learned over the past few weeks

Category: Psychology