Posts filed under “Psychology”

The Prediction Markets Chalk Another One Up!

At the risk of starting up another controversy, I must point out that the InTrade prediction market  got this about as wrong as you possibly could:

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Jackson-Guilty of AT LEAST 1 of 2 counts of administering an intoxicating agent to a minor
click for larger chart
Jackson_intoxc

Source: InTrade

On average, the Alcohol issue was an over 50% likelihood for nearly the entire length of the contract, but briefly dropped towards 20%  for a few weeks last month.

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Jackson – Guilty of AT LEAST 1 of 7 counts alleging lewd or lascivious acts against a minor
click for larger chart
Jackson_lewd

Source: InTrade

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The Lewd issue started out at 40%, spend almost a year near 60%, bottomed at 35% before climbing back towards 60%.

Okay, Chris — before I say anything else, I will wait for your deconstruction of this — where and how did it go wrong, and why?

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UPDATE: June 15, 2005 6:26am
Not only did the crowds get it wrong, but as the brilliant Daily Show reveals, the experts did just as poorly. (warning: hysterical video)

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Category: Markets, Psychology

Why Investors Fail

Nice piece by BMO Nesbitt on why investors fail: “Individuals have historically underperformed the markets, earning just 2.6% vs. the S&P 500 gain of 12.2% between 1984 and the end of 2002*. Research in the U.S. has shown that this dramatic underperformance comes as a direct result of client behaviour, or more specifically, the attempt…Read More

Category: Investing, Psychology

Anticipating the Dominant Stories

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

Chart of the Week: 10 Year Yield (Post-Crash) vs Japan

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology

uh-oh: Time Magazine on Housing

Is this the Magazine Indicator at work? First Fortune, now Time Magazine: We’ve seen some terrific Contrary market calls from magazine covers:  Time magazine naming Jeff Bezos man of the year in December 1999 marked the top of the internet bubble; The March 21st  2005 Newsweek cover story, “The Incredible  Shrinking Dollar,” marked a key…Read More

Category: Psychology, Real Estate

Enjoy It While It Lasts

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

Quote of the Day

Category: Psychology, Trading

Templeton’s 22 Principles For Successful Investing

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

Apprenticed Investor: The Zen of Trading

Category: Investing, Psychology, Rules, Trading

Apprenticed Investor: Don’t Speak (part II)

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology