Posts filed under “Psychology”

Why We Love Jeff Matthews

One of the very hardest things about investing is wrapping your head around the concept that you really do not know what is going to happen tomorrow.

Sure, we can lay out various possibilities, and say this has a 42% chance of occurring, that has a 26% chance, and that over there is 9% — but you do not know. That was the motivation behind the "Expect to be Wrong" column. Understanding this makes it that much easier to preserve capital, to cut and run when you need to. Its also the reason why I pepper my discussions with caveats (see this for an example).

Every time I see the classic pundit cockily opine about exactly what is going to happen, I am forced to shake my head in disbelief. The phrase that comes to mind is "often wrong, never in doubt."

Which is why this this commentary from Jeff Matthews is so refreshing:

"For the record, as readers have gleaned, I own shares of Google, because I think the earnings power of the business is much higher than Wall Street thinks. But I could very well be wrong and change my mind in a minute, and I don’t recommend anyone go near the stock."

I’ve done a show or two with Jeff (Kudlow & Company), and while I’ve never met the man, I am an admirer off his work. I am also a regular reader of his very entertaining blog, Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up (you should be too).

Investors should keep his phrase handy:  But I could very well be wrong and change my mind . . .

Category: Earnings, Psychology, Weblogs

Sometimes, There is No Pony

Category: Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Trading

Delayed Onset: Some Historical Comparisons

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

9/11

Category: Psychology, War/Defense

The Disconnect and Economic Classes

Category: Economy, Psychology

DJIA 1966 – 1982

The previous chart reveals the long standing secular moves of the markets; What’s an investor to do during one of the long periods of weakness? One answer is to learn to be more nimble, and trade the cyclical markets. > Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1966 – 1982 click for larger chart data for chart courtesy…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Katrina Lowers Year End Expectations

Category: Commodities, Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Chart of the Week: NYSE Making New Highs

Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Katrina Overview (or, we’ve gone Map Crazy, Part IV)

Category: Commodities, Media, Psychology, Science, Weblogs

Ben Stein: Wrong About Earnings

Category: Earnings, Economy, Financial Press, Psychology