Posts filed under “Psychology”
We previously mentioned how Bullish the Pros were; What about the investing public — how Bullish are they?
At least when measurd by a particular sub group — over 5,000 online WSJ readers — the answer is "Very" :
click for larger graphic
While I see a lot of anecdotal chatter about this, and prefer to stick with more quantitative data. Too many people say “All my colleagues/friends/brother-in-laws are _____. That’s meaningless.
The Business Week survey reveals one group of bullishness (Strategists). When I made my guess, I never figured I would be the outlier to the downside. Without thinking much about it, I assumed I would be in the bottom third, or even quartile.
Other surveys reveal a similar Bullish bend. The WSJ poll (over 3,750 people) show 46% expect the same thing as the market gurus: between 11-12k. Another 12% think we end up at more that 12,000. About 22% expect to end 2006 unchanged. Only 9% think we will see the Dow between 10,000-10,500 – a mild correction of less than 10%. A little more than one in 10 persons (11%) think the Dow will drop below 10,000.
The one anecdote I will mention is television bookings: Why is it I see the same few Bears on CNBC? The bookers I speak with tell me there are far fewer Bulls than Bears.
Bottom line: Both the pros and the amateurs are moderately Bullish.
As promised, today brings us to the 4th in our series of charts: P/E vs S&P500 click for larger chart courtesy of Mike Panzner, Rabo Securities > I’ll get into the significance of what this means to the markets later, but for now, note where the P/E is over the median, and its impact on…Read More
Have a look at this 100 year (actually, 105-Year) chart. I colored each “Market” appropriately — Green for Bull, and Red for Bear — to more clearly show what happens. Bull markets get ahead of themselves. At their ends, they tend towards excesses that take a very long while to recover from. When a long…Read More