Posts filed under “Psychology”

Chart of the Week: 10 Year Yield (Post-Crash) vs Japan

Even in this recovery with near zero Fed Funds, job growth was weak and wage growth never materialized.

What will the next recovery look like? 


Post Bubble Yields: U.S. 10 Year(Post-2000) vs Japan (Post-1989)

click for huge chart

10_year_versus_japan


Rate Cycle:  Lower Lows, Lower Highs

Rate_cycle_lower_highs

Charts courtesy of JDC

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The stimulation for the next recovery might be even more limited, given the extremes in current leverage and rates. If we follow the Japanese model, stocks could go down for several years, bonds go up even further, as the dollar rallies, materials and energy stocks do poorly. In this scenario, Gold diverges from the dollar and rallies strongly.

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Random Items

U.S. Bond Forecasters, Wrong on Yields in 2004, Blow It Again

Upside-Down Interest Rates   

What’s worrying Greenspan?

Predicting Real Growth Using the Yield Curve (PDF)

High Pump-Price Fairy Tales

How not to buy happiness   

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Quote of the Day

The greatest booms unfold when capital concentrates in one sector. When that capital shifts, you also find the result of the greatest financial panics in history.

Martin A. Armstrong

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Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology

uh-oh: Time Magazine on Housing

Is this the Magazine Indicator at work? First Fortune, now Time Magazine: We’ve seen some terrific Contrary market calls from magazine covers:  Time magazine naming Jeff Bezos man of the year in December 1999 marked the top of the internet bubble; The March 21st  2005 Newsweek cover story, “The Incredible  Shrinking Dollar,” marked a key…Read More

Category: Psychology, Real Estate

Enjoy It While It Lasts

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

Quote of the Day

Category: Psychology, Trading

Templeton’s 22 Principles For Successful Investing

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

Apprenticed Investor: The Zen of Trading

Category: Investing, Psychology, Rules, Trading

Apprenticed Investor: Don’t Speak (part II)

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

The Ten Trading Commandments

Category: Psychology, Trading

Playboy Bunny or Real Estate Investor?

Category: Psychology, Real Estate

Uh-oh Fortune’s cover: Real Estate Gold Rush

Fortune aks:  Is it too late to get in? The answer to that question, when posed by a major magazine cover, tends to be an emphatic yes. > > The articles are actually more circumspect than the cover: Is the Housing Boom Over? How Real People Get Rich The New King of the Real Estate…Read More

Category: Financial Press, Psychology, Real Estate