Posts filed under “Psychology”

2015 Pace of Social Change

Click for other social issues.

Source: Bloomberg

Category: Digital Media, Politics, Psychology

The Remarkable Life & Lessons of Ronald Read

    My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at the remarkable life and lessons of Ronald Read. It is a fascinating tale. Here’s an excerpt from the column: “You may have read about the remarkable life and times of Ronald Read. He was the gas station attendant and…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Psychology

Nasdaq Bubble Stole From Future Returns

Yesterday, we discussed why the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gone sideways for the past few months. The prime suspects were rich valuations, earnings crimped by falling energy prices and higher returns to be had overseas. Today, I want to look at the Nasdaq Composite Index. It closed at 5,056.06 yesterday, surpassing its March 2000 dot-com…Read More

Category: Markets, Psychology, Sentiment, Valuation, Web/Tech

The Market Rhythm Deciphered

Source: @Trader_Dante

Category: Cycles, Humor, Psychology, Trading


Source: Aeon

From Aeon:

Since 1986, the amount of information we absorb has increased fivefold and our options for getting more have become almost limitless. All this choice and access to data might seem like a luxury of contemporary life – and in some ways it is – but recent neuroscience studies have shown it’s making our brains work overtime. As it turns out, we aren’t just bad at multitasking, we’re not equipped for it at all. In fact, we’re just switching between tasks, which uses up neural resources that would otherwise go towards actual problem-solving.

In this talk at the Royal Society of Arts in London, Daniel Levitin, a professor of psychology and behavioural neuroscience at McGill University in Canada, reveals the surprising effects that ‘information overload’ is having on our brains, and how we can best combat the data deluge. Some of the proven strategies, like taking short naps to recharge, could go beyond simply preventing brain drain and helping us maintain focus, but might actually make us better, more creative problem-solvers too. In fact, Levitin makes the case for regular daydreaming – 15 minutes every two hours – so that our brains benefit from a restorative mind-wandering mode, which he describes as their natural state.

Category: Psychology, Video

Don’t Let Bias Corrupt Your Analysis

Those of you who over the many years have followed some of the thoughts and observations I jot down each morning may have noticed several themes. Prominent among them is that forecasting is folly; cognitive errors create investing mistakes; consider context when analyzing data; recency bias overemphasizes the latest data; mixing politics with investing is…Read More

Category: Analysts, Cognitive Foibles, Politics, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Probability, Mean Reversion and Forecasting

We’re down to the Final Four in this year’s iteration of March Madness, also known as the national collegiate basketball tournament. Our earlier discussion of “The March Madness Theory of Investing“ didn’t sit well with some readers. The lessons we sussed out from the bracket-destroying results included home-country bias, how expert forecasts are about as good as those…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Bad Math, Psychology, Sports

Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is Biotech Is in a Bubble?

Awesome graphic:   click for ginormous graphic Source: Credit Suisse via Bloomberg    

Category: Markets, Psychology, Science

Hate Mail Rules

1. CHECK YOUR GRAMMAR No one’s going to take you seriously if you use “there” instead of “their” or “your” instead of “you’re.” Maybe you should write your missives in Word first, where there’s a grammar checker. Or maybe run your prospective words by your mother, since you want her to be proud of you….Read More

Category: Humor, Psychology, Web/Tech, Weblogs

Interest Rates Aren’t Going Anywhere . . .

Source: BAML, Fiscal Times     I have been fairly agnostic on several issues related to where interest rates are heading. It has never been my job to forecast where the 10-year yield will be in six months. Not predicting and not caring are two very different things, however. Rates matter a great deal — to investors, to the economy…Read More

Category: Credit, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy