Posts filed under “Psychology”

Polar Vortex be gone! At long last, the end of this terrible winter of discontent is nearing. We can say with some degree of confidence that the light at the end of tunnel is not an oncoming locomotive.

Today is very likely to be the pivot day marking the end of this endless season. With temperatures in New York City and its environs in the teens, warmer, sunnier days await. Tomorrow we move into the 40s, the weekend will even see the 50s. Cheer as March ends with higher average temperatures than it began with. Celebrate the Crokus pushing up through the frozen ground. A full run of blossoms begin to tentatively show their selves in April, after hiding for the entire season below ground.

Rejoice SAD sufferers – Seasonal Affective Disorder – the clocks will mercifully get nudged forward, bringing an extra hour of daylight into the darkness of our days.  The spring equinox is merely 10 days after, and for the next 6 months you can enjoy more sunlight than darkness (weather permitting).

track_all-4_800x600Hibernation has never looked as good as it did this year. Perhaps the market’s ongoing rally is a testament to the evolutionary intelligence of market’s bears. The ursine crowd have simply disappeared, but do not be fooled.

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Category: Cycles, Markets, Psychology

How We Understand Risk: What Kills Us

One of the things that baffles me about people is how they completely misunderstand risk. Lots of my friends panic about things that have no real chance of killing them, but ignore the things that will. This can lead us to make irrational decisions, and sometimes irrational policy. What really will kill us? Watch and learn.

What Kills Us? How We Understand Risk.

Category: Bad Math, Psychology, Science, Video

Why Trolls Start Flame Wars . . .

Internet Psychology 101:  Swearing and Name-Calling Shut Down the Ability to Think and Focus   Psychological studies show that swearing and name-calling in Internet discussions shut down our ability to think. Twi professors of science communication at the University of Wisconsin, Madison – Dominique Brossard and Dietram A. Scheufele – wrote in the New York…Read More

Category: Psychology, Think Tank

What Is Your Focus: Outcome or Process?

Outcome or process — what investment focus succeeds over time? Barry Ritholtz, Washington Post, February 23 2014       “The reason investors and the investment industry rely on performance is because it’s simple, objective and easy to measure. But more importantly, performance goals, performance reviews and performance measurement are so common in business, in…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Psychology

WealthTrack: Robert Shiller Interview

Robert Shiller, recent winner of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, a Yale professor and the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices discusses the importance of psychology in the markets and what it’s telling him now.
WEALTHTRACK #1035 originally Broadcast February 21, 2014

Source: WealthTrack

Category: Psychology, Video

Grantham on ‘What People Learn from Financial Crises’

I love this: When he was asked what people would learn from the whole financial crisis, Jeremy [Grantham] said, “In the short term a lot, in the medium term a little, in the long term, nothing at all. That would be historical precedent.” -James Montier to Kate Welling, via FT Alphaville  

Category: Bailouts, Markets, Psychology

Risk Aversion at the Country Level

Category: Psychology, Think Tank

The Collective Delusion that is Bitcoin (and All Currencies)

When I first stated traveling for work, I was surprised and amused by the various currencies I saw. Pre-euro, one would encounter a multitude of paper bills of different sizes and colors, each imprinted with a famous man or woman I probably hadn’t heard of. Imagine that: The locals actually believed these silly pieces of…Read More

Category: Currency, Psychology

Daniel Kahneman, in conversation with Cass Sunstein

On February 3, 2014, Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, spoke with Cass Sunstein, Robert Walmsley University Professor in Spangler Auditorium at Harvard Business School.

Category: Investing, Psychology, Video

What Kind of Investor Are You?

>   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at the differences between Outcome or Process focused investors. The print version had the full headline Investing’s smart minority: The process people while the online version Outcome or process — what investment focus succeeds over time?. Here’s an excerpt from the…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Psychology