Posts filed under “Quantitative”
Economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb and his mentor, mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot, speak with Paul Solman about chain reactions and predicting the financial crisis.
click for video
RAY SUAREZ: Finally tonight, we return to a subject on many minds these days: the financial crisis. Our economics correspondent, Paul Solman, checked back in with one particularly prominent voice in the investment world and his colleague, who guided his thinking.
Here is the pair’s sobering conversation on what may lie ahead.
PAUL SOLMAN, NewsHour Economics Correspondent: One of the world’s hottest investment advisers these days, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of "The Black Swan," who’s been warning of a crash for years, betting on one, and winning big.
He’s been ubiquitous in the financial media of late, from cable TV’s "Colbert Report" to the BBC’s "Newsnight," where he was infuriated by what he called "bogus accounting."
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB, Scholar and Author: The first thing I would get immediately, immediately, I would suspend something called value at risk, quantitative measures of risk used by banks, immediately.
PAUL SOLMAN: We sat down with Taleb and the man he calls his mentor, mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot, pioneer of fractal geometry and chaos theory. And even more than feeling vindicated, they’re both scared.
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: I don’t know if we’re entering the most difficult period since — not since the Great Depression, since the American Revolution.
PAUL SOLMAN: The most serious situation we’ve been in since the American Revolution?
Top Theorists Examine Rippling Economic Turbulence
PBS, October 21, 2008
I did a video interview with Smart Money a few months ago — warning that the credit and financial crisis about to get a lot worse — and by the time they were ready to post it, the Dow had already plummeted 2000 points (or as its been known around here lately, Tuesday).
They had me come in and reshoot another 4 minutes worth:
Jeez, look at my eyes . . . I have to stop smoking those big fatties in the car on the way to these things. Visine no longer seems to do the trick! (heh)
Hat tip George at Agoracom
Here is yesterday’s featured segment, Breakouts & Breakdowns on Fast Money with Dylan Ratigan.
Here is last night’s episode:
Breakouts & Breakdowns: An outlook on PNY and NEM, with the Fast Money traders
The name Fusion is supposed reflect
that we use both technical and fundamental data points.
metrics we track are Trend (short, medium, and long term), Money
Flow (stock and group), Short interest (relative to
float), Institutional Ownership, (we crunch it ourselves between official
quarterly releases), Earnings Trend (are they still ramping, plateau-ing,
reversing or falling), and Forecast Earnings Surprise.
The name Fusion is supposed reflect
metric is quite fascinating. we take the top analysts on any name in terms of
their recent earnings forecast record. When they are an outlier against the rest
of the analyst community, we often — about ~68% of the time — see an earnigns
surprise. I.E., when the top guy is bearish, and the rest of the dead fish are
bullish, you tend to see an downside surprise (and vice verse). Think Bove and
Whitney versus the geniuses who downgraded Lehman today. When we get towards erarnings season, I’ll pull a few
names. Its pretty wild stuff.
Our projected holding period is 3
months, plus or minus — but we hold longer if working (i.e., we are still short AIG from last year),
and always use stop losses when they are not working (i.e., covered the short in RIMM for a 5% hit).