Posts filed under “Quantitative”

Lehman Brothers $20 Price Target Complete

In the beginning of June, I noted that Lehman Brothers (LEH) was reiterating a sell signal on the Fusion IQ ranking system. So too was CIT Group (CIT).

Lehman closed at $19.81, and is now at an eight year low on "Take-under" speculation.  CIT is $6.81, about 32% below the June 3rd call.

At the time, we put a $20 price target on Lehman, and warned against owning CIT. LEH is since down 41.4+%; CIT is down 28.77%.

Leh_1981

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I rarely use the blog to promote our Quant tool, but damn, if you missed this one, you left a lot of money on the table. I am reiterating these two calls because they were such jumbo winners — 30% in less than a month. If you haven’t tried the tool you are missing out on an enormous moneymaker.

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Category: Quantitative, Short Selling, Trading

Visualizing Data

Category: Mathematics, Quantitative, Technical Analysis

Half Empty? No Such Thing!

Category: Data Analysis, Psychology, Quantitative

The Recession Buy Indicator

Category: Contrary Indicators, Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Quantitative

Fusion IQ Podcast

Category: Podcast, Quantitative, Weblogs

Global Warming Denialists: We Suck at Math Also!

Category: Politics, Quantitative, Science, Technical Analysis

Barrons Review: Is the Magic back at Disney?

Category: Contrary Indicators, Corporate Management, Financial Press, Quantitative, Technical Analysis, Valuation

Three of the Nasdaq Four Horseman Are Limping

Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG) and Baidu (BIDU) — three of the NASDAQ FOUR HORSEMAN – have been coming up gimpy since their FusionIQ timing sell signals (triggered at much higher levels several weeks ago).

These stocks have fallen precipitously since those Sells.

Only Research in Motion (RIMM) — which gapped open strongly yesterday — acts well. The other three horsemen stocks have clearly broken their uptrends, and are in the process of being repriced. We point this out because trading highly volatile names like these can be dangerous especially if one doesn’t have a Sell Discipline.

Unbiased, indicator-driven trading signals can help make you a better investor. Whether its based on technicals, fundamentals, valuation or quantitative research, having a non-emotional layer to your investing/trading plan is always helpful. 

I am biased towards our signals (FusionIQ), but any objective timing method that would have gotten you out of the way in these 3 names weeks ago is a good thing — you would have avoided a lot of pain.

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Four Horseman of Nasdaq

note: Sell Signals are indicated with a red "S"

 Apple (AAPL) 
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Category: Markets, Quantitative, Technical Analysis, Trading

AIG: Don’t Try to Catch the Falling Knife

Category: Derivatives, Quantitative, Technical Analysis, Valuation

The Flawed Fed Valuation Model

There are lots of things that investors believe which I find perplexing. The Superbowl indicator is one, but the oddest to me is the so-called Fed Model, also known as the IBES Valuation Model. It is not that the Fed model is so terribly wrong — it has been both right and wrong over the…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Earnings, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Quantitative, Valuation