Posts filed under “Quantitative”

AIG: Don’t Try to Catch the Falling Knife

Here’s an excerpt of a report we put out on Monday:


AIG shares broke down through what had been solid support over the last three years on the second heaviest weekly volume on record going back to 1996. The breaking of support happened to coincide with news that outside auditors had found deficiencies in the way the company values some financial derivatives it has written based on collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). 

Additionally with a FusionIQ Technical Rank of only 12 (out of a possible 100) forward returns for AIG do not look promising. The next downside target for AIG shares is $ 32.00 (green line) and this aligns nicely with the objective point and figure derived target of $ 33.00. 

Analyst sentiment remains overly bullish with 14 BUYS and only 4 HOLDS, particularly given the recent breakdown in price.  We would expect to see the analyst recommendation skew migrate from its more bullish posture over the next several weeks/months bringing additional downward pressure to shares.

From a tactical trading strategy rallies into strength can be sold into to either exit long positions or put on new shorts positions.

American International Group (AIG) -

Weekly Chart through Monday’s close


chart courtesy of

Category: Derivatives, Quantitative, Technical Analysis, Valuation

The Flawed Fed Valuation Model

There are lots of things that investors believe which I find perplexing. The Superbowl indicator is one, but the oddest to me is the so-called Fed Model, also known as the IBES Valuation Model. It is not that the Fed model is so terribly wrong — it has been both right and wrong over the…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Earnings, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Quantitative, Valuation

Fun With Data Analysis: The Art of the Plausible

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Data Analysis, Markets, Mathematics, Quantitative

Barron’s Stocks

Category: Quantitative

Risk Model

Category: Markets, Psychology, Quantitative

Baseball Stats and Freakonomics Wannabes . . .

Category: Data Analysis, Mathematics, Quantitative

Free Trial: Fusion IQ

Category: Quantitative

Coming soon: High End Quant Tool for Investors

Category: Quantitative

One Way Days: Are the rules different this time ?

Category: Hedge Funds, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Quantitative, Technical Analysis, Trading

“Dear Investor” — Quant Letters to Clients

Category: Hedge Funds, Psychology, Quantitative, Trading