Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”

Student Loans Are Going to Crush the Economy! (No, they are not)

stud debt

 

Student loans are the next great subprime crisis! At least that’s what the usual purveyors of doom and gloom say (see this, this and this). The numbers are big, the default rates are high and soon enough this is going to tip the economy into the next crisis or recession.

Not so fast, writes Torsten Slok, chief international economist for Deutsche Bank AG, in his forthcoming September chart-book

continues here

 

 

 

 

Category: Credit, Really, really bad calls

Source: Vulgar Trader

Category: Legal, Politics, Really, really bad calls, War/Defense

Got Math? Odds Are, You Don’t Understand Probabilities

Last week, we discussed the problems with having poor reading comprehension and the impact that has on consuming news. This week, I want to look at the lack of math skills. America seems to becoming a dangerously innumerate society. Innumeracy is incompetence with numbers rather than words. This is a worrisome issue for the future…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Bad Math, Data Analysis, Really, really bad calls

Ponzi Scheme Tracker

Cool data collection

Category: Investing, Legal, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Wrong Way Plosser

Hawks Crying Wolf: Charles Plosser of the Philadephia Fed; if you’ve been following these things, you know that Plosser has been warning about imminent inflation since the beginning of the crisis. He did it in 2008; he did it in 2009; he did it in 2010; he did it in 2011; I’m getting tired here,…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Really, really bad calls

A Data Junkie Looks at the News

Many years ago, when I was a poor and humble graduate student, I taught the prep course for students taking the GMATs and LSATs. I understood the internal logic and game theory needed to succeed on standardized tests, and could explain techniques used to do well on them. One of the keys to succeeding on…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Markets, Really, really bad calls

One Cheer for Fair Isaac

Sometimes we don’t know exactly how broken things are until after they get fixed. Case in point: Fair Isaac Corp., the company that created the model used to calculate the scores underlying millions of consumer loan and credit decisions. The New York Times described Fair Isaac’s formula as “one of the most widely used and…Read More

Category: Credit, Economy, Really, really bad calls

The Idiots of San Diego County’s Pension Investment Committee

It’s a basic form of storytelling, used in countless books and movies: Two people, in similar circumstances, confronted by difficult choices. One does what is right, even if it seems like the harder choice. He fights through the many challenges, has moments of self-doubt and worry, before ultimately being rewarded. The other takes the easy…Read More

Category: Investing, Really, really bad calls

How Greenspan Became the ex-Maestro

On this day in 1987, Alan Greenspan became chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. This anniversary allows us to take a quick look at what followed over the next two decades. As it turned out, it was one of the most interesting and, to be blunt, weirdest tenures ever for a Fed chairman. This was…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Federal Reserve, Markets, Really, really bad calls

Why The Ukraine Headline Does Not Pass The Sherlock Holmes Test

I mentioned on Tuesday afternoon that I did not believe the market weakness was due to Ukraine Russia tensions. From Art Cashin, UBS head of floor trading, and a 5o-year veteran of the NYSE floor, expresses the sentiment much more eloquently than I:   One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other – Or…Read More

Category: Markets, Really, really bad calls