Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”
With Spring nearly upon us, today may be the last chance for excuse-makers to blame this winter’s awful weather for poor job creation. Consensus estimates are that Payrolls increased 149,000 in February after a mediocre gain of 113,000 in January.
What is to blame for this weak ongoing job creation? Is it the Fed’s fault? Obamacare? An obstinate GOP controlled House?
I go with “none of the above.” The reality is far more nuanced and complex.
As I have been writing (and pleading and screaming) for the past 5 years, we are in a post credit crisis recovery. These are relatively rare. They look very different than the normal, post-recession jobs recovery. As Reinhart and Rogoff first observed in 2007 – the paper without the spreadsheet error – post credit crisis recoveries are typically slow, characterized by weak GDP gains and mediocre job creation. The Deleveraging process by corporations, households and government is the reason why. Continues here
This is one of those things that really annoys me:
One year ago today, Charles Nenner (of the Charles Nenner Research Center) went on TV. His specialty is Cycle Research (whatever that is). He made a very bold call, forecasting a drop to 5,000 in the Dow.
It was not merely that the 50% drop did not come pass. What happened was the opposite, a 32% rally. And so, one year later, we have to recall this prognostication as one of the very worst of the year. The calls on Apple and Intel and Semis were nearly as bad.
Worst call of 2013:
March 4 (Bloomberg) — Charles Nenner Research Center Executive Director Charles Nenner discusses the markets and his prediction of the Dow dropping to 5,000 this year.. He speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)
This weekend, I found myself in the rather unusual position of defending hedge funds. Before I explain why that is so unusual, allow me to explain what I was defending them against. Last week, Forbes released its annual score card of top-earning hedge fund managers. The usual gang was there: Soros, Tepper, Cohen, Paulson, Icahn,…Read More
Source: The Chart Store Today I am going to make a somewhat nuanced argument about the dangers of indicators and metrics for valuing stocks. Let’s use arguably the greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett, and what he describes as, “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”…Read More
Source: Bianco Research This month, 1,865 pages of FOMC transcripts from 2008 were released to the public. Bloomberg studied the transcripts, finding on average about 25 references to laughter per meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. This was almost half of the 45 giggles per FOMC meeting in 2007. Continues here
Prior to viewing the video below, I suggest you read these three posts (in this order):
• The kinda-eventually-sorta-mostly-almost Efficient Market Theory (November 20th, 2004)
• Random Walk and Outperforming Fund Managers (July 19th, 2006)
• How Shiller helped Fama win the Nobel (October 26th, 2013)
In 2008, Eugene Fama made a video for the American Finance Association on the history of the efficient markets hypothesis.
Hat tip The Grumpy Economist