Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”

Beware those who are never, and can never be wrong.

Lately, I have been hear an interesting type of argument. It is a form of debate that is both disingenuous and dishonest. We will call this the “Can’t Lose Argument,” or CLA. Worse than confirmation bias, it is a money-losing exercise in narcissism.

The CLA goes something like this: A data point will be mentioned, and no matter what the net change in that data — up, down or neutral — it is somehow bad for markets. Stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, all are fair game for the CLA.

Let me share a few examples of it:

Earnings

CLA: “This quarter, corporate earnings are going to be weak. Perhaps even a negative growth number. That proves a recession is close.”

The Rational Person, or RP for short, notes that analysts forecast higher profits.

CLA: “Well, maybe not negative, but soft — worse than last year in the same quarter.”

Then earnings exceed forecasts.

continues here

 

Category: Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Well Hedged Predictions

click for original cartoon Source: Medium:

Category: Hedge Funds, Humor, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

Free Lunch Over for Money-Market Funds

Of all the outrages endured during the financial crisis, perhaps the most perplexing involved money-market mutual funds. In an example of moral hazard writ large, this uninsured risk instrument — with $2.57 trillion in assets — somehow became too big to fail. Five years later, the Securities and Exchange Commission is finally taking steps to…Read More

Category: Mutual Funds, Really, really bad calls, Regulation

NSA Communication Breakdown

Source: Washington Post

Category: Really, really bad calls

Confessions of an Inflation Truther

There is a group of folks who believe that inflation is much higher than the numbers in the official reports. Paul Krugman calls them “inflation truthers.” In the 2000s, I might have been considered part of that crowd. I recognized that inflation data wasn’t being reported accurately, and said as much. I coined the phrase…Read More

Category: Inflation, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

Graphic Language: The Curse of the CEO

I love this article: F-Bombs Tolerated in Recession Cause CEOs Trouble Later It turns out that public profanity among top executives is sensitive to economic conditions, according to a Bloomberg News review of thousands of CEO calls with investors and analysts from 2004 to last month. It spiked in the aftermath of the recession in…Read More

Category: Corporate Management, Earnings, Really, really bad calls

Government’s Most Visible Failures, 2001-2014

Click for even more interactive data and assorted interesting things. Source: Brookings Institute

Category: Really, really bad calls

Liesman to Santelli: “You Are a Money Loser!”

As a reminder, this is why you should leave your TV off all day . . .   Be sure to watch until the very end . . .   Is Yellen risking inflation? Source: CNBC, Mon, 14 Jul ’14 | 12:01 PM ET

Category: Financial Press, Investing, Really, really bad calls, Television, UnGuru

We Need More Futile Empty Gestures in Foreign Policy!

In today’s “Global Outlook,” Bloomberg’s Barry Ritholtz discusses Israel weighing a possible ground operation to quell weeks of Palestinian rocket fire into its territory. He speaks with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.”

Will the U.S. Intervene in Israel-Hamas Conflict?

Source: Bloomberg, July 8 2014

Category: Media, Really, really bad calls, Video, War/Defense

NSA = J. Edgar Hoover On Steroids

Spying On – and Blackmailing – Politicians, Generals, Judges, Lawyers and Citizens The newly-published revelations from Edward Snowden show that the NSA and FBI spied on an American citizen running for political office: The NSA also surveilled a U.S. citizen while he ran for political office: https://t.co/UzFya8ltmjpic.twitter.com/3jZdsYxQRG The Washington Post’s report last week also shows…Read More

Category: Legal, Really, really bad calls, War/Defense