Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”
Lately, I have been hear an interesting type of argument. It is a form of debate that is both disingenuous and dishonest. We will call this the “Can’t Lose Argument,” or CLA. Worse than confirmation bias, it is a money-losing exercise in narcissism.
The CLA goes something like this: A data point will be mentioned, and no matter what the net change in that data — up, down or neutral — it is somehow bad for markets. Stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, all are fair game for the CLA.
Let me share a few examples of it:
CLA: “This quarter, corporate earnings are going to be weak. Perhaps even a negative growth number. That proves a recession is close.”
The Rational Person, or RP for short, notes that analysts forecast higher profits.
CLA: “Well, maybe not negative, but soft — worse than last year in the same quarter.”
Then earnings exceed forecasts.
Of all the outrages endured during the financial crisis, perhaps the most perplexing involved money-market mutual funds. In an example of moral hazard writ large, this uninsured risk instrument — with $2.57 trillion in assets — somehow became too big to fail. Five years later, the Securities and Exchange Commission is finally taking steps to…Read More
There is a group of folks who believe that inflation is much higher than the numbers in the official reports. Paul Krugman calls them “inflation truthers.” In the 2000s, I might have been considered part of that crowd. I recognized that inflation data wasn’t being reported accurately, and said as much. I coined the phrase…Read More
I love this article: F-Bombs Tolerated in Recession Cause CEOs Trouble Later It turns out that public profanity among top executives is sensitive to economic conditions, according to a Bloomberg News review of thousands of CEO calls with investors and analysts from 2004 to last month. It spiked in the aftermath of the recession in…Read More
Click for even more interactive data and assorted interesting things. Source: Brookings Institute
Category: Really, really bad calls
In today’s “Global Outlook,” Bloomberg’s Barry Ritholtz discusses Israel weighing a possible ground operation to quell weeks of Palestinian rocket fire into its territory. He speaks with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.”
Will the U.S. Intervene in Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Source: Bloomberg, July 8 2014
Spying On – and Blackmailing – Politicians, Generals, Judges, Lawyers and Citizens The newly-published revelations from Edward Snowden show that the NSA and FBI spied on an American citizen running for political office: The NSA also surveilled a U.S. citizen while he ran for political office: https://t.co/UzFya8ltmjpic.twitter.com/3jZdsYxQRG The Washington Post’s report last week also shows…Read More