Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”

The Kansas Experiment is Over. Kansas Lost

Every year, right after the April 15 tax deadline, the U.S. Census releases its data on the prior year’s state tax collections. It is a fascinating document, filled with great data points for tax and policy wonks. It reveals a good deal about the state of local economies, economic trends and results of specific policies. In broad terms, the financial fortunes of the states are improving.

A quick excerpt:

State government tax revenue increased 2.2 percent, from $847.1 billion in fiscal year 2013 to $865.8 billion in 2014, the fourth consecutive increase, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2014 Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections.

General sales and gross receipts taxes drove most of the revenue growth, increasing from $258.9 billion to $271.3 billion, or 4.8 percent. Severance taxes increased 6.0 percent, from $16.8 billion to $17.8 billion, and motor fuel taxes increased 3.4 percent, from $40.1 billion to $41.5 billion.

You can read the full press release here or access all of the data directly from the Census.

There are some truly fascinating data points in the report:

 

Continues here:  Supply-Side Doom in Kansas

 

Category: Data Analysis, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

We Know What’s the Matter With Kansas

@TBPInvictus When pushing his tax cuts for Kansas in July 2012, Governor Sam Brownback wrote: “Our new pro-growth tax policy will be like a shot of adrenaline into the heart of the Kansas economy.” Art Laffer and Stephen Moore wrote that “many states like Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma are seriously considering abolishing their income taxes…Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Data Analysis, Economy, Politics, Really, really bad calls

Jobless in Seattle? Not Yet, Anyway. Part 2

@TBPInvictus On Wednesday, I threw in my $0.02 about the controversy surrounding the increase in Seattle’s minimum wage. Unlike any of those who have been decrying the new law and its impact, I used some data to demonstrate the absence (as yet) of any ill effects. Specifically, I looked at restaurant permit issuance and found…Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Really, really bad calls

High Number of Zero-Savers

47% of households have a 0% personal savings rate, see chart below. Source: Torsten Sløk, Ph.D., Deutsche Bank Securities

Category: Consumer Spending, Investing, Really, really bad calls, Wages & Income

Jobless in Seattle? Not Yet, Anyway.

@TBPInvictus Barry wrote yesterday about how political bias can corrupt economic analysis. It’s something he and I discuss all the time and are always on the lookout for. We’ve documented over the years how leaning too heavily on one’s politics is a recipe for disaster when it comes to asset management. In the wealth management…Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Really, really bad calls

Don’t Let Bias Corrupt Your Analysis

Those of you who over the many years have followed some of the thoughts and observations I jot down each morning may have noticed several themes. Prominent among them is that forecasting is folly; cognitive errors create investing mistakes; consider context when analyzing data; recency bias overemphasizes the latest data; mixing politics with investing is…Read More

Category: Analysts, Cognitive Foibles, Politics, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

More Economic & Legal Details on Indiana’s RFRA Law

This morning, I described the potential economic cost of the backlash Indiana’s RFRA law. There was some pushback, but emailers were quickly disabused of the falsity of their statements. A few factual clarifications and a few last details will round out what some people may not understand. First, the Indiana legislation is different from other “Religious Freedom” laws. The language…Read More

Category: Legal, Really, really bad calls

Gay Discrimination Is A Billion Dollar Self-Indulgence

By now, you have surely heard about Indiana’s so-called Religious Freedom Restoration Act and its potential for giving cover to those who discriminate against gay people. A backlash that had already been gathering momentum burst open this weekend, driven by an op-ed by Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook in the Washington Post. As Cook wrote:…Read More

Category: Legal, Politics, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

Indiana’s SB-01– Is Not Pro Religion, Its Anti-Gay

Governor Mike Pence is lying about the purpose of this law. The photo below, and who the governor invited to its being signed into law, very much reveals the motivation behind SB101 — its not pro-religion, its anti-gay, and thats wrong. Its also bad business — companies like Apple and Angies List may very well…Read More

Category: Legal, Really, really bad calls

Interest Rates Aren’t Going Anywhere . . .

Source: BAML, Fiscal Times     I have been fairly agnostic on several issues related to where interest rates are heading. It has never been my job to forecast where the 10-year yield will be in six months. Not predicting and not caring are two very different things, however. Rates matter a great deal — to investors, to the economy…Read More

Category: Credit, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy