Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”
Give credit where credit is due: Faber admits his prior crash forecast(s) were wrong.
How wrong? Calculated Risk observes that the market is up 40% since his 2012 prediction.
Marc Faber: The asset bubble has begun to burst, here comes the bear market
Today’s must read comes to us from Fortune, where editor at large Allan Sloane rails against “Positively un-American tax dodges.” Its your must read for today. Let’s see if the our elected representatives can manage to stop behaving like 10 year olds long enough to resolve this.
My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at the worst investing ideas of the year. The print version had the full headline Where dumb money goes; the online version is the worst investing ideas this year. Here’s an excerpt from the column: “Here is the first half of…Read More
This will be a short rant, as we prepare to head off to celebrate the birth of our nation with fireworks, barbeques, and the usual trappings of summer. I spite of the celebratory mood, I am troubled by the unrelenting incompetence of the U.S. Congress. Its inability to pass even the most basic legislation is…Read More
via Jason Zweig: 1994: Remember Elaine Garzarelli, the “guru” at Shearson Lehman Brothers who “called” the Crash of 1987? Her Smith Barney Shearson Sector Analysis Fund, which sucked up $700 million in 1987 from investors dazzled by her forecasting ability, is shut down today as Smith Barney quietly merges Garzarelli’s fund into its Strategic Investor…Read More
Definitive Analysis: War Is Bad for the Economy Preface: Two weeks ago, well-known economist Tyler Cowen (a professor at George Mason University) argued in the New York Times that wars – especially “major wars” - are good for the economy. Cowen joins extremely influential economists like Paul Krugman and Martin Feldstein – and various talking heads…Read More
Whenever there is some global catastrophe, we break out the checkbook, sending a donation to the Red Cross. Whether it’s an earthquake in Haiti or a tsunami in Japan, many people’s natural inclination is to send money to one of world’s best-known charities. Superstorm Sandy hit the Northeast U.S. in October 2012, devastating parts of…Read More
Category: Really, really bad calls
If you work in finance, you will invariably come across an example of single-variable analysis. Almost daily, we see terrible examples of this sort of analytic error, rife with logical weakness, yet offered with the highest degree of certainty. The way this works is as follows: Some ominous data point will be shown, along with…Read More