Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”

When Do Gasoline Sales Peak?

On Monday, I discussed why Tesla’s latest announcement was big. The electric carmaker said it planned a modification that would give its autos the ability to accelerate faster than cars that cost two to three times more and keep up with those that cost 10 to 20 times more. That’s an astonishing accomplishment. I made the supposition that if you squint, you can see the beginning of the end for gasoline-powered internal combustion engines. They won’t go away for a while, but they have a credible challenger in electric battery-powered vehicles.

Let’s assume for the moment that my wild-eyed speculation is correct. Play this out and it means that at some point in the future, sales of gasoline-powered automobiles will peak and begin to fall. This has enormous ramifications for the U.S. transportation grid, and the health of the American economy — and for anyone investing in energy or transportation and all the related industries.

We now pay for the maintenance and construction of our interstate highway system, bridges and tunnels — plus many state and local roads — through the Highway Trust fund. (We have discussed this before hereherehere and here). The Fund is financed by a gasoline tax that has been stuck in a time warp. The last time the tax was increased to keep up with the cost of construction and maintenance was in 1993, to 18.4 cents a gallon. But now the Trust fund is being starved of funding because the tax wasn’t indexed to inflation.  Adding to the strains is weather that has gotten worse for roads because of hotter summers and colder snowier winters.

A never-ending series of emergency measures and short-term fixes have kept the Fund afloat, but now it’s just about out of money.

Even the Senate’s proposed three-year agreement (which is still too little) will be a challenge to get through the House, which only is looking to extend federal highway spending to December.

Which brings us back to the rise of electric-battery vehicles. If my modest projections are right — half of all cars sold in the U.S. and Europe by 2035 will be either plug-ins or hybrid-electric — then the demand for gasoline is going to start falling. We don’t know when peak gasoline will occur, but even the most skeptical observer of the auto industry knows that gasoline sales are not likely to continue rising during the next century.

How about 50 years — can anyone legitimately make the case that gasoline sales are not going to peak at some point within the next five decades? It isn’t even a huge stretch to imagine a plateau beginning as soon as 2025.

Which brings us back to the issue of road maintenance: If my speculation is even remotely correct, the era when we finance highway construction and maintenance with a consumption tax is coming to an end. At some point in the not-too-distant future, gasoline sales won’t even have the potential (which they have today) to fund road maintenance. The aversion to tax increases now makes even the most rudimentary repairs difficult or impossible; in the future, the U.S. may not even have the option of turning to a gas tax increase because the sales base won’t be there.

The window is beginning to close on refinancing America’s debt at historically low interest rates. Make me your all-powerful benevolent king and I will float a $5 trillion, 50-year bond offering to rebuild the entire transportation infrastructure, from bridges to tunnels to highways, including technologically advancedcleanersmart roads. But short of that, doubling the gas tax to 37 cents and indexing it to inflation will keep the roads functional, allowing for the efficient transportation of goods around the nation.

Of all the taxes we love to hate, the gasoline tax is the most innocuous. It isn’t even a true tax, but a usage fee: The more you drive, the more goods you consume, the more you pay for the cost of the roads that make the modern U.S. economy possible.

The U.S. highway system, once the envy of the world, has become anational embarrassment. It’s long past time to change that.



Originally published as: Raise the Gas Tax Before It’s Too Late



Category: Energy, Politics, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

Market Forecasters Are Like Blind Squirrels…

Earlier this summer, I tweeted a wonderful line from Brett Arends column, 25 things I wish I knew when I graduated from high school:



That led to a delightful column last week from Michael Johnston’s A Visual History of Market Crash Predictions.

Here are some of the more egregious calls, but the entire article is well worth your time to read:



Source: Fund Reference



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Category: Analysts, Mathematics, Really, really bad calls

CIA Reactions to Finding No WMD in Iraq

    The National Security Archive has posted several newly available documents, one of them an account by Charles Duelfer of the search he led in Iraq for weapons of mass destruction, with a staff of 1,700 and the resources of the U.S. military. Duelfer was appointed by CIA Director George Tenet to lead a massive…Read More

Category: Really, really bad calls, Think Tank, War/Defense

Surging Seas: 2°C Warming and Sea Level Rise

Click to check out other cities. Source: Climate Central

Category: Digital Media, Really, really bad calls, Science

Travails of the Modern Macro Tourist

      My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at travels and travails of the macro tourist. That was the name of the online version; in print edition of the paper, it was Is your money subject to the travails of a macro tourist?. Here’s an excerpt from the…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Really, really bad calls

Last August, we called out the San Diego County retirement fund for paying way too much in fees to Salient Partners, its outside pension-fund manager. Based on reporting by Dan McSwain, the San Diego Union-Tribune alerted readers to a dramatic increase in the use of leverage once Salient took the reins. On July 16, the county fired Houston-based Salient, according…Read More

Category: Asset Allocation, Hedge Funds, Really, really bad calls

Here Comes the Debt Ceiling Debate

Fascinating discussion via Real Time Economics:   click for ginormous graphic Source: WSJ

Category: Digital Media, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

What China Can Learn from America’s Plunge Protection Team

Last week, we noted that China’s heavy-handed interventions had turned their stock markets into “a government bureaucracy.” Several other observers whom I respect echoed that perspective, suggesting there were problems with China’s efforts to prop up its stock market and that the effort was doomed to fail. The knee-jerk response to these thoughts came from people who asked how this…Read More

Category: Markets, Really, really bad calls, Regulation

China “Embraces” the Markets

Fantastic cover from this week’s Economist; I think we have different definitions of “embrace” . . .     Source: The Economist – China embraces the markets: A panicked response to tumbling stocks casts doubt on the pace of reform  

Category: Bailouts, Financial Press, Really, really bad calls, Regulation

Gold Can’t Find a Bid

This was the week Greece inched closest to chaos, as a bank holiday and a technical default caused markets around the world to erupt in turmoil. They recovered somewhat Tuesday, and futures looked stronger Wednesday morning, but on Monday, the NASDAQ Composite Index lost 2.4 percent, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 2.09 percent and the…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Really, really bad calls, Trading