Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”
Last week, I came across the following headline: “As music sales fall, sax player Kenny G turns to stockpicking.”
My immediate reaction: Uh oh. The last thing any bull market needs is for celebrities to be featured in the financial press. As soon as that starts, it means the bull market must be near a top, right?
Before you nod your head in agreement, let’s do some digging to see if the contrary-indicator idea is right and not just a trading-desk anecdote. A search shows that the stock-trading celebrity is a regular feature of what is obviously a bored financial press. If only there were anything important going on that might be worth their attention, then journalists wouldn’t have to bother with this sort of fluff. But hey, nothing really important has been happening, so why not discuss the Kenny G Long Short Leveraged Alpha Fund?
Where was I? Oh, celebrity stock-picking.
Here is a brief survey of how they have done:
For a long time, the fund managers at Yale’s endowment were the industry’s gold standard. Inevitably, as in so many things Ivy, this was noticed by rival Harvard. The so-called Yale Model, developed by David Swensen and his colleague Dean Takahashi, was rich with alternative investments, private equity, commodities and real estate and other items…Read More
This was the big news yesterday out of California: The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers) today announced that it will eliminate its hedge fund program, known internally as the Absolute Return Strategies (ARS) program, as part of an ongoing effort to reduce complexity and costs in its investment program. The staff recommendation, supported by…Read More
U.S. policies toward Cuba are anachronistic and perplexing. The embargo is a Cold War relic that has long ago stopped serving its intended purpose. It was adopted after the now-defunct Soviet Union tried to establish nuclear bases on the island, bringing the two superpowers to the verge of nuclear war. But what purpose does the…Read More
Yesterday, we looked at why bankers weren’t busted for crimes committed during the financial crisis. Political corruption, prosecutorial malfeasance, rewritten legislation and cowardice on the part of government officials were among the many reasons. But I saved the biggest reason so many financial felons escaped justice for today: They dumped the cost of their criminal…Read More
“There Were No Convictions of Bankers for Good Reason” is the headline of a post by Mark F. Pomerantz, a lawyer and retired partner at Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison in the New York Times’s Room for Debate discussion: The reason that senior bankers did not face charges, even though investigators interviewed countless witnesses…Read More
As I sat down to write this early this morning, no one knew what the jobs numbers would be. But I did know three related things: 1. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists is that 230,000 workers were added in August; 2. Almost all of the individual forecasters will be wrong. (Actually,…Read More
Earlier this week, Prudent Bear fund founder David Tice warned of an imminent crash — as bad as 30-60% down on the S&P500. One small thing: This is pretty much the same call that Tice made in 2010 and 2012. Apparently, if you make the same crash call every 2 years, most of the media…Read More
Student loans are the next great subprime crisis! At least that’s what the usual purveyors of doom and gloom say (see this, this and this). The numbers are big, the default rates are high and soon enough this is going to tip the economy into the next crisis or recession. Not so fast, writes…Read More