Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”
Source: Bianco Research
This month, 1,865 pages of FOMC transcripts from 2008 were released to the public. Bloomberg studied the transcripts, finding on average about 25 references to laughter per meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. This was almost half of the 45 giggles per FOMC meeting in 2007. Continues here
Prior to viewing the video below, I suggest you read these three posts (in this order):
• The kinda-eventually-sorta-mostly-almost Efficient Market Theory (November 20th, 2004)
• Random Walk and Outperforming Fund Managers (July 19th, 2006)
• How Shiller helped Fama win the Nobel (October 26th, 2013)
In 2008, Eugene Fama made a video for the American Finance Association on the history of the efficient markets hypothesis.
Hat tip The Grumpy Economist
Attention All Astro-Traders & Financial Astrologers!
That was the subject line of an e-mail that hit my inbox yesterday. It was curious enough that, unlike most of the junk sent my way, I went to Google to see what and who it was all about.
The discussion was forwarded to me by a successful trader I know in the Seattle area, with the observation “It is amazing the lengths people will go to in seeking predictability” along with the tongue-in-cheek comment, “I always wanted to be an astro-trader!”
The e-mail was about a “long awaited” book — really a trading course — titled “Secrets of the Chronocraters,” by Dr. Alexander Goulden. The e-mail boldly claimed this work is the “DEEPEST & MOST ADVANCED work on Financial Astrology ever written!” Which to my skeptical mind, is like arguing which real housewife of New Jersey is the most probable winner of next year’s Nobel Prize in Physics.
Did I mention it is now on sale at the low, low price of $3,600? That seems like a perfectly fair price for “a concise, applied manual, which will predict market trends and turns like nothing else.”
Column continues here
Full email after the jump
From the author:
Evidence Facebook’s revenue is based on fake likes.
My first vid on the problem with Facebook: http://bit.ly/1dXudqY
I know first-hand that Facebook’s advertising model is deeply flawed. When I paid to promote my page I gained 80,000 followers in developing countries who didn’t care about Veritasium (but I wasn’t aware of this at the time). They drove my reach and engagement numbers down, basically rendering the page useless. I am not the only one who has experienced this. Rory Cellan-Jones had the same luck with Virtual Bagel.
The US Department of State spent $630,000 to acquire 2 million page likes and then realized only 2% were engaged. http://wapo.st/1glcyZo
I thought I would demonstrate that the same thing is still happening now by creating Virtual Cat (http://www.facebook.com/MyVirtualCat). I was surprised to discover something worse – false likes are coming from everywhere, including Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia. So even those carefully targeting their campaigns are likely being duped into spending real money on fake followers. Then when they try to reach their followers they have to pay again.
And it’s possible to be a victim of fake likes without even advertising. Pages that end up on Facebook’s “International Suggested Pages” are also easy targets for click-farms seeking to diversify their likes. http://tnw.co/NsflrC. Thanks to Henry, Grey, and Nessy for feedback on earlier drafts of this video.
One of the more interesting aspects about the market in 2014 is how much it has managed to defy expectations. Consensus has been consistently wrong; indeed, it seems that any time there is an agreement of sorts on just about any issue, the opposite has happened. Merrill Lynch’s legendary strategist Bob Farrell put together 10…Read More
“It’s going to blow up the deficit, won’t create any jobs and will cause all sorts of other problems.” A hedge-fund manager was lecturing me about the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, better known as the Bush tax cuts. I had been suggesting that this fund close its short positions on…Read More
“When will these guys ever learn that maybe, just maybe, these Fed policies aimed at targeting asset prices at levels above their intrinsic values is probably not in the best interests of the nation?” -Dave Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin, Sheff Not long ago, I was listening to former Federal Reserve…Read More
Let’s End Politico and Deal Book’s “Competition in Sycophancy” William K. Black New Economic Perspectives, Jan 22 2014 Politico has joined Deal Book in a “competition in sycophancy.” The contestants are competing to see which can author the most extreme version of a fantasy meme in which heroic Wall Street “banks” are oppressed by…Read More