Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”

Interest Rates Aren’t Going Anywhere . . .


Source: BAML, Fiscal Times

 

 

I have been fairly agnostic on several issues related to where interest rates are heading. It has never been my job to forecast where the 10-year yield will be in six months. Not predicting and not caring are two very different things, however. Rates matter a great deal — to investors, to the economy and most of all to debtors of every kind.

You would be hard-pressed to find anyone in finance who would ever admit to believing that rates don’t matter. Despite the importance of bond yields and borrowing costs, few seem to have any idea how to analyze them in a way that provides a helpful conclusion.

And while many are quick to point out how disruptive the Federal Reserve programs of quantitative easing and zero-interest rates have been to stock and bond prices, that’s a terrible excuse. One would think that something so big, so contentious and so transparent would be easy to insert into traditional economic models. But no.

As it turns out, most of the economic community on Wall Street has gotten this terribly wrong. Some have disagreed, such as Jeff Gundlach and Gary Shilling (see this and this) but they are notable exceptions.

 There are many indicators that keep suggesting that our lowlowlow rate world is going to stay this way for a long time. Some of these are turning out to be more significant than many had expected.

First . . .

 

Continues here

 

Category: Credit, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

More Long Bonds Now!

Every once in a while, there is a way to resolve a host of problems that is so obvious it gets overlooked. With that in mind, and in light of yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the reaction that followed, let’s have a look at four big problems: crumbling U.S. infrastructure; federal budget deficits;  normalizing…Read More

Category: Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

Another Good 1929 Call . . .

Sometimes you have to diary these things for a few years and revisit them: Markets Showing ‘Extreme Similarities’ With 1929 Crash: Pro CNBC.com, Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 | 8:53 AM ET “Investors should remain on the sidelines and wait for a market correction as a 4-year rebound comes to an end, Sandy Jadeja, chief market…Read More

Category: Markets, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

John Oliver on The Scandal That is the NCAA

The NCAA doesn’t pay athletes because they consider them amateurs. The NCAA considers them amateurs because they don’t get paid.

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: The NCAA

HBO, 3.15.15

Category: Really, really bad calls, Sports, Video

Gold Narrative Has Just Not Worked

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Gold & Precious Metals, Media, Really, really bad calls

Time for Janet Yellen to Go On the Ellen DeGeneres Show

This week, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll on presidential contenders for 2016 came out. It was the usual sort of thing: Favorable versus unfavorable ratings for the candidates: Democrats like Hillary; Republicans like Jeb (but not as much as Dems like Hillary); no one likes Chris Christie or Donald Trump. But you might have missed a fascinating tidbit buried…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

Gold Turns Negative Year-to-Date; Stocks to Follow

Equity markets started off this year by falling. They rallied in February, working their way back into the green. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index now is up about 1 percent for the year. Gold has traveled the opposite path: The yellow metal began at about $1,175 an ounce. By Jan. 23, it had rallied…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Gold & Precious Metals, Really, really bad calls, Trading

Late to the Party Again: Apple Gets Added to the Dow

I want to address the addition of Apple to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, so we have to get a few things out of the way up front. The venerable Dow isn’t really all that important. It began life on May 26, 1896, but in the last 30 or so years, it has faded in…Read More

Category: Index/ETFs, Investing, Really, really bad calls, Technology

Vice: Greenland Is Melting

In this episode, Shane Smith travels to Greenland with climate scientist Jason Box to investigate why the glaciers are melting, and how the resulting rise in sea level will devastate our world sooner than expected. Then VICE goes to Pakistan, where millions of men, women, and children work as bonded laborers in brick kilns.

Category: Really, really bad calls, UnScience, Video

Macro Hedge Funds ‘Stinking Up the Joint’

Ritholtz Wealth Management Chairman Barry Ritholtz discusses the markets and his investment ideas on “In The Loop


Bloomberg, March 3 2015

Category: Investing, Media, Really, really bad calls, Video