Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”

Vaccine-Preventable Outbreaks


Source: Council on Foreign Relations

Category: Really, really bad calls, Research, Science

The Shadow Lobbying Complex

click for ginormous graphic Source: The Nation

Category: Crony Capitalists, Digital Media, Politics, Really, really bad calls

Buffett’s Favorite Indicator Is Worthless as a Buy/Sell Signal

Source: The Chart Store     Today I am going to make a somewhat nuanced argument about the dangers of indicators and metrics for valuing stocks. Let’s use arguably the greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett, and what he describes as, “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”…Read More

Category: Really, really bad calls, Technical Analysis, Valuation

Does the Federal Reserve Staff Still Beat Private Forecasters?

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Really, really bad calls, Think Tank

Its all fun & games until someone loses an economy!

Source: Bianco Research This month, 1,865 pages of FOMC transcripts from 2008 were released to the public. Bloomberg studied the transcripts, finding on average about 25 references to laughter per meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. This was almost half of the 45 giggles per FOMC meeting in 2007. Continues here

Category: Federal Reserve, Hedge Funds, Really, really bad calls

A Brief History of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Prior to viewing the video below, I suggest you read these three posts (in this order):

The kinda-eventually-sorta-mostly-almost Efficient Market Theory (November 20th, 2004)

• Random Walk and Outperforming Fund Managers (July 19th, 2006)

• How Shiller helped Fama win the Nobel (October 26th, 2013)

In 2008, Eugene Fama made a video for the American Finance Association on the history of the efficient markets hypothesis.

Hat tip The Grumpy Economist

Category: Really, really bad calls, Video

Creationism in Public Schools Mapped

Source: Slate

Category: Politics, Really, really bad calls, Science, UnScience

Attention All Astro-Traders & Financial Astrologers!

Attention All Astro-Traders & Financial Astrologers!

That was the subject line of an e-mail that hit my inbox yesterday. It was curious enough that, unlike most of the junk sent my way, I went to Google to see what and who it was all about.

The discussion was forwarded to me by a successful trader I know in the Seattle area, with the observation “It is amazing the lengths people will go to in seeking predictability” along with the tongue-in-cheek comment, “I always wanted to be an astro-trader!”

The e-mail was about a “long awaited” book — really a trading course — titled “Secrets of the Chronocraters,” by Dr. Alexander Goulden. The e-mail boldly claimed this work is the “DEEPEST & MOST ADVANCED work on Financial Astrology ever written!” Which to my skeptical mind, is like arguing which real housewife of New Jersey is the most probable winner of next year’s Nobel Prize in Physics.

Did I mention it is now on sale at the low, low price of $3,600? That seems like a perfectly fair price for “a concise, applied manual, which will predict market trends and turns like nothing else.”

Column continues here

 

Full email after the jump

 

Read More

Category: Really, really bad calls, Trading, UnScience

Facebook Fraud: Click Farms & Fake Likes

From the author:

Evidence Facebook’s revenue is based on fake likes.

My first vid on the problem with Facebook: http://bit.ly/1dXudqY
I know first-hand that Facebook’s advertising model is deeply flawed. When I paid to promote my page I gained 80,000 followers in developing countries who didn’t care about Veritasium (but I wasn’t aware of this at the time). They drove my reach and engagement numbers down, basically rendering the page useless. I am not the only one who has experienced this. Rory Cellan-Jones had the same luck with Virtual Bagel.

The US Department of State spent $630,000 to acquire 2 million page likes and then realized only 2% were engaged. http://wapo.st/1glcyZo

I thought I would demonstrate that the same thing is still happening now by creating Virtual Cat (http://www.facebook.com/MyVirtualCat). I was surprised to discover something worse – false likes are coming from everywhere, including Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia. So even those carefully targeting their campaigns are likely being duped into spending real money on fake followers. Then when they try to reach their followers they have to pay again.

And it’s possible to be a victim of fake likes without even advertising. Pages that end up on Facebook’s “International Suggested Pages” are also easy targets for click-farms seeking to diversify their likes. http://tnw.co/NsflrC. Thanks to Henry, Grey, and Nessy for feedback on earlier drafts of this video.

Category: Really, really bad calls, Technology, Video

Beware Consensus: When to Ignore the Investment Experts

One of the more interesting aspects about the market in 2014 is how much it has managed to defy expectations. Consensus has been consistently wrong; indeed, it seems that any time there is an agreement of sorts on just about any issue, the opposite has happened. Merrill Lynch’s legendary strategist Bob Farrell put together 10…Read More

Category: Investing, Really, really bad calls, Rules