Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”
There is a group of folks who believe that inflation is much higher than the numbers in the official reports. Paul Krugman calls them “inflation truthers.”
In the 2000s, I might have been considered part of that crowd. I recognized that inflation data wasn’t being reported accurately, and said as much. I coined the phrase “inflation ex-inflation” to show the absurdity of reporting inflation data without food and energy prices, which were rising fast then. Owner’s equivalent rent, hedonic adjustments, substitution all were rightly criticized as flaws in the consumer price index model.
The key difference between the truthers of 2010s and those of the 2000s is what each group has criticized and toward what purpose.
The 2000s truthers were critics of the inflation mathematical model used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (more on this later); the 2010s truthers are critics of President Barack Obama, and any economic gains under his watch therefore must be the result of inflation.
Today’s truthers include the site shadowstats.com, whose methodology was thoroughly debunked by John Aziz. Yet even conservative Ramesh Ponnuru, my colleague at Bloomberg View, has called those who believe that hyperinflation is running amok, “inflation cranks.” Continues here
I love this article: F-Bombs Tolerated in Recession Cause CEOs Trouble Later It turns out that public profanity among top executives is sensitive to economic conditions, according to a Bloomberg News review of thousands of CEO calls with investors and analysts from 2004 to last month. It spiked in the aftermath of the recession in…Read More
Click for even more interactive data and assorted interesting things. Source: Brookings Institute
Category: Really, really bad calls
In today’s “Global Outlook,” Bloomberg’s Barry Ritholtz discusses Israel weighing a possible ground operation to quell weeks of Palestinian rocket fire into its territory. He speaks with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.”
Will the U.S. Intervene in Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Source: Bloomberg, July 8 2014
Spying On – and Blackmailing – Politicians, Generals, Judges, Lawyers and Citizens The newly-published revelations from Edward Snowden show that the NSA and FBI spied on an American citizen running for political office: The NSA also surveilled a U.S. citizen while he ran for political office: https://t.co/UzFya8ltmjpic.twitter.com/3jZdsYxQRG The Washington Post’s report last week also shows…Read More
Give credit where credit is due: Faber admits his prior crash forecast(s) were wrong.
How wrong? Calculated Risk observes that the market is up 40% since his 2012 prediction.
Marc Faber: The asset bubble has begun to burst, here comes the bear market
Today’s must read comes to us from Fortune, where editor at large Allan Sloane rails against “Positively un-American tax dodges.” Its your must read for today. Let’s see if the our elected representatives can manage to stop behaving like 10 year olds long enough to resolve this.
My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at the worst investing ideas of the year. The print version had the full headline Where dumb money goes; the online version is the worst investing ideas this year. Here’s an excerpt from the column: “Here is the first half of…Read More