Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”
In honor and reverence to one of my favorite comedic personalities, David Letterman, and the end of his talk show career here is my own market Top 10 List.
Top 10 list of Wall Street sayings that should be questioned
10) There is a lot of cash on the sidelines.
There is always a lot of cash on the sidelines and that never changes. The buyer of a stock, thus taking cash off the sidelines, gives it to the seller who puts it back on the sidelines.
9) There are more buyers than sellers (or vice versa).
Maybe technically there are more bodies buying or selling than the other side but the number of shares traded has to be exactly the same as for every share bought is a share sold. It’s the aggressiveness of one side or the other that matters.
8) Stocks are attractive because they aren’t quite as overpriced as bonds.
If bonds are artificially priced, shouldn’t stocks be? Overpriced though can of course remain overpriced.
7) The higher stocks go the more attractive and less risky they are.
For long term investors, the more one pays in price today with respect to valuation, the less return they should expect in the future.
6) Stocks aren’t expensive because they are still cheaper than the valuations seen in March 2000.
5) There is no alternative.
In bull markets there is always no alternative to common stocks. In bear markets, there are always alternatives.
4) Markets can’t go down as long as the Fed is easing policy, aka don’t fight the Fed.
While that is many times the case, the Fed started cutting rates aggressively in January 2001 and in September 2007.
3) We’re going to get a rotation into stocks and out of bonds.
For every portfolio rotating out of bonds has to see someone rotating in and that buyer of stock has someone rotating out. Again, it’s the aggressiveness of the moves that matter.
2) The selloff in stocks was profit taking.
Does anyone refer to a rally as profit seeking?
1) The US economy is in a new normal or plagued by secular stagnation.
Maybe now temporarily it is but free market capitalism is the greatest wealth machine in the history of the world if left to its own devices and not to central planners (fiscal, monetary and regulatory policy).
Managing Director, Chief Market Analyst
The Lindsey Group LLC
peter -at- thelindseygroup.com
The details are still being sorted out on the deadly Amtrak crash that killed at least six people earlier this week and injured 100s more. But what we do know is that the stretch of track where the train derailed did not have the latest automated speed control system. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) board…Read More
I am pleased to introduce to Big Picture readers someone I have known and admired for many years: Bruce Bartlett worked for Congressmen Ron Paul and Jack Kemp, and in the Office of Policy Development in the Reagan White House, and at the Treasury Department for George H.W. Bush. He is now a political independent….Read More
Great couple of graphics from the WSJ this AM. This is the simple version, a short explanatory overlaid on a graph: Perfect Storm click for ginormous graphic Source: WSJ The interactive version is far richer and more details as tot he minute by minute set up: Flash Crash’ a Perfect Storm for Markets click…Read More
What makes this so good is how dead on accurate this collection of cliches have become: Click to create your own personal narrative. You may even get your own punditry spot. Source: Stockcats How awesome is this?!
Nobody wants to watch the Discovery Channel. 2.9 million people viewed “Naked and Afraid.” But a hundred million paid for it. More than a buck a month. The CEO made $156 million. Now what? Lawsuits. Verizon is following the customer, allowing its FiOS TV subscribers to pick and choose channels. And the content providers are…Read More
Executive compensation is in the news again as the Securities and Exchange Commission gets ready to issue new guidelines on pay disclosures. As mandated by the Dodd-Frank Act, the new rules are supposed to provide “greater transparency and allow shareholders to be better informed” about executive and director compensation. Transparency is certainly a good first step. But…Read More