Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”

Gold Turns Negative Year-to-Date; Stocks to Follow

Equity markets started off this year by falling. They rallied in February, working their way back into the green. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index now is up about 1 percent for the year.

Gold has traveled the opposite path: The yellow metal began at about $1,175 an ounce. By Jan. 23, it had rallied to almost $1,300. In February, gold slipped about $60 and the fall continued this month. Gold now is down about 1.6 percent year-to-date and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the precious metal fell more this month.  “March has a history of being the worst” month for gold, according to Bloomberg. During the past four decades, on average, bullion futures decline 1 percent in March. “Prices fell 65 percent of the time, more than any other month.”

gold chart

The reason gold prices can’t seem to gain any traction are many: Job creation has been robust, inflation is low and the Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin the process of easing back on monetary accommodation — strengthening the dollar and further reducing gold’s appeal.

As we noted late last year, the gold narrative has failed. The promised hyperinflation that was supposed to send gold soaring never arrived. Instead, we had disinflation, with a threat of global deflation.

Other stories were posited by traders who were long on hope but short on cogent analysis . . .  Continues here

 

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Gold & Precious Metals, Really, really bad calls, Trading

Late to the Party Again: Apple Gets Added to the Dow

I want to address the addition of Apple to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, so we have to get a few things out of the way up front. The venerable Dow isn’t really all that important. It began life on May 26, 1896, but in the last 30 or so years, it has faded in…Read More

Category: Index/ETFs, Investing, Really, really bad calls, Technology

Vice: Greenland Is Melting

In this episode, Shane Smith travels to Greenland with climate scientist Jason Box to investigate why the glaciers are melting, and how the resulting rise in sea level will devastate our world sooner than expected. Then VICE goes to Pakistan, where millions of men, women, and children work as bonded laborers in brick kilns.

Category: Really, really bad calls, UnScience, Video

Macro Hedge Funds ‘Stinking Up the Joint’

Ritholtz Wealth Management Chairman Barry Ritholtz discusses the markets and his investment ideas on “In The Loop


Bloomberg, March 3 2015

Category: Investing, Media, Really, really bad calls, Video

Pretending to Know . . .

  Source: Real-World Economics Review Blog  

Category: Humor, Really, really bad calls

John Oliver on Infrastructure

America’s crumbling infrastructure: It’s not a sexy problem, but it is a scary one.

Follow us on Twitter for news about jokes and jokes about news:

http://Twitter.com/LastWeekTonight

Visit our official site for all that other stuff at once:

http://www.hbo.com/lastweektonight

Connect with Last Week Tonight online…
Subscribe to the Last Week Tonight YouTube channel for more almost news as it almost happens: www.youtube.com/user/LastWeekTonight

Category: Economy, Humor, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy, Video

Kimmel: A Message for the Anti-Vaccine Movement

Jimmy feels that all of this anti-vaccination silliness is starting to snowball, so he invited some real doctors to address it. These are actual medical professionals so hear them out and then decide for yourself.    

Category: Humor, Really, really bad calls, UnScience

Don’t Make the Trading Gods Laugh

Today’s discussion is aimed at the individual investor, though certainly the professionals might take something from our philosophical musings this morning. The bull market that dates to March 2009 is now entering one of its more interesting — and perhaps dangerous — phases. Not hazardous, mind you, from a market perspective, but from a behavioral…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Fed Gives Congress Room to Shirk Resposibility

One of my favorite thought experiments is the careful-what-you-wish-for scenario. I was reminded of its utility during Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony the other day. Consider the critique of the Fed by some members of Congress. As the New York Times described it, the three-hour hearing was “testy” as “Republicans on the House Financial…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Politics, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

I wanted to spend a bit of time on the Labor Department’s proposal to place a fiduciary obligation on those who manage or provide investment advice on retirement plans. These include individual retirement accounts and 401(k)s (including 403(b)s). The new rules require the broker or adviser to “operate in the best interest of the client.” I don’t…Read More

Category: Index/ETFs, Investing, Mutual Funds, Really, really bad calls