Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”

Our Self-Inflicted Economic Wounds

In sports, all great competitors know that they have a choice, even when confronted with daunting, insurmountable odds. They can lay down and let the larger, stronger opponent run up the score. Or they can find a way to compete, to make a game of it. A good loss is a dignified way to show what you are made of, that you have grit, attitude and brass, and you aren’t to be trifled with, even in defeat

The financial crisis delivered a significant blow to the economic well-being of the U. S,, indeed, the world. There were two responses to this challenge, one of a great competitor, and one of a pathetic loser. The response to the threat of overwhelming defeat is instructive, not only for its policy implications, but for how we as individuals should respond challenges that seem hopeless.

Consider the policy makers of the Federal Reserve, terrified as they were of the entire system collapsing. Regardless of your views of the impact of the Fed — and I was an early critic — one must grudgingly admire they’re determined and innovative responses. Consider not what they did but their attitude and creativity when confronted with what appeared to be an insurmountable challenge: They stepped up their game big time. If they were going to lose this battle, they were going to go down fighting.

They threw away the rule book. The new liquidity facilities were certainly never envisioned 100 years ago on Jekyll Island, where the Fed was born. But that didn’t stop them.

There are no mercy rules in economics. The Fed knew this, and rather than let the clock run out — a few decades of indecisive dithering probably would allow the excesses to be wrung out eventually — took a bold stand.   Continues here

 

 

 

 

Category: Investing, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

Welcome to the Muppet Economy

Slipping back into my regular routine is sometimes a challenge after a few days of traveling. The first day back in the markets — especially following a week like we had to end July and begin August — can be a bit of an adjustment. A few days away allows the accumulation of jaded skepticism…Read More

Category: Hedge Funds, Investing, Really, really bad calls

Beware those who are never, and can never be wrong.

Lately, I have been hear an interesting type of argument. It is a form of debate that is both disingenuous and dishonest. We will call this the “Can’t Lose Argument,” or CLA. Worse than confirmation bias, it is a money-losing exercise in narcissism. The CLA goes something like this: A data point will be mentioned,…Read More

Category: Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Well Hedged Predictions

click for original cartoon Source: Medium:

Category: Hedge Funds, Humor, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

Free Lunch Over for Money-Market Funds

Of all the outrages endured during the financial crisis, perhaps the most perplexing involved money-market mutual funds. In an example of moral hazard writ large, this uninsured risk instrument — with $2.57 trillion in assets — somehow became too big to fail. Five years later, the Securities and Exchange Commission is finally taking steps to…Read More

Category: Mutual Funds, Really, really bad calls, Regulation

NSA Communication Breakdown

Source: Washington Post

Category: Really, really bad calls

Confessions of an Inflation Truther

There is a group of folks who believe that inflation is much higher than the numbers in the official reports. Paul Krugman calls them “inflation truthers.” In the 2000s, I might have been considered part of that crowd. I recognized that inflation data wasn’t being reported accurately, and said as much. I coined the phrase…Read More

Category: Inflation, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

Graphic Language: The Curse of the CEO

I love this article: F-Bombs Tolerated in Recession Cause CEOs Trouble Later It turns out that public profanity among top executives is sensitive to economic conditions, according to a Bloomberg News review of thousands of CEO calls with investors and analysts from 2004 to last month. It spiked in the aftermath of the recession in…Read More

Category: Corporate Management, Earnings, Really, really bad calls

Government’s Most Visible Failures, 2001-2014

Click for even more interactive data and assorted interesting things. Source: Brookings Institute

Category: Really, really bad calls

Liesman to Santelli: “You Are a Money Loser!”

As a reminder, this is why you should leave your TV off all day . . .   Be sure to watch until the very end . . .   Is Yellen risking inflation? Source: CNBC, Mon, 14 Jul ’14 | 12:01 PM ET

Category: Financial Press, Investing, Really, really bad calls, Television, UnGuru