Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”
“All of the job growth from 2007 to today can easily be attributed to the shale oil fracking situation and the oil Renaissance. If you take Texas and North Dakota out of the data series for job employment, what you see is that we haven’t added any jobs in the United States other than those two regions.”
The comment above by famed bond investor Jeff Gundlach during a conference call last week set off a firestorm, repeating a trope that has been gaining traction in some quarters. The claim is that all the job creation in this economic recovery is related to the surge in oil and natural-gas fracking. This is demonstrably false.
There have been variations on this theme floating around for a few years. To get the basic claim to work, you need to accept two flawed analyses. The first is that all net job growth in the U.S. since 2007 is the result of the energy and related industries. The second is that, absent Texas, the rest of the country lost jobs.
The reports on which these claims are based are biased and full of analytical errors. Making matters worse, they both come from think tanks that specialize in slanted economic analysis. As the saying goes, torture the data long enough and it will confess to anything.
Let’s begin with a few facts: There are now 118.4 million U.S. workers in private-sector jobs. The economy lost a lot of jobs during the Great Recession, and it wasn’t until 2010 that we began adding to the nonfarm payroll numbers. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, more than 10 million jobs have been created since the end of 2010.
What about all of the oil and fracking jobs?
It’s time to market forecasters to admit the errors of their ways Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, January 18, 2015 I come not to praise forecasters but to bury them. After lo these many years of listening to their nonsense, it is time for the investing community — and indeed, the seers themselves —…Read More
> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at why It’s time to market forecasters to admit the errors of their ways. It is yet another look at the parade of really bad forecasts we get treated to constantly in the world of investing and finance. Here’s an excerpt…Read More
“Wealth – any income that is at least one hundred dollars more a year than the income of one’s wife’s sister’s husband.” –H.L. Mencken On Fridays, I like to wax eloquent and philosophical — about investing, analysis and asset management. Often, there are lessons from other disciplines that are applicable to our…Read More
How to Stop Terrorism: 7 Ways to Drain the Swamp In the wake of the barbaric Paris terror attack, everyone is debating how to stop further terrorism. Some say we need more war against Islamic countries … or more spying … or more crackdowns on our liberties. But – despite what the talking heads may…Read More
“The Proper Response to Today’s Tragic Events Should Be for EVERY Publication On The Planet To Print Depictions of the Prophet Muhammad” We at Washington’s Blog have done as much as anyone to dispel the myth that all Muslims are terrorists. (Here, here, here, here, here, here, and here). And we’ve written as much as anyone on the dangers of…Read More
It’s that time of year again. All of the usual suspects trot out their forecasts for 2015 on markets, interest rates, gold, oil, economic growth and unemployment. You can set your calendars based on these prognostications, just as long as you remember to ignore their often-hilarious track records. Regular readers know this is a pet…Read More
Category: Really, really bad calls