Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”

Birinyi, Biggs, Fisher: Buy Year 3 of Rally

I do not recall who else was calling a bottom in March 2009 — there seems to be many more folks making the claim than occurred in real time– but Birinyi was certainly one of them.

[UPDATE: Several of you point to this March 29 2011 Bloomberg story quoting Birinyi saying sell:

Investors who own stocks that rose as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied 20 percent since March 9 should consider selling them, said Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates Inc. in Westport, Connecticut.

“You’ve had a lot of stocks make very condensed, very sharp, compressed moves,” Birinyi said on Bloomberg Television. “Investors should realize that with the market driven by day- to-day news, there’s nothing wrong with booking some profits.” The market is reminiscent of 2007, when the S&P 500 rose 3.5 percent but investors who bought the right stocks turned substantial profits, Birinyi said. The S&P 500 Energy Index gained 32 percent that year.

(Note the reporters on the current story responded to my email, stating “We checked the tape of that interview with Bloomberg News on March 26, and Birinyi maintains his overall bullish outlook, just suggesting temporary profit-taking. The S&P 500 fell about 5.4 percent in the two days following the interview.”)

Here is the 2011 Bloomberg, (which now appears to be either erroneous or incomplete):

“The money managers who picked the global stock market bottom say now is no time to sell as the biggest equity rally since 1955 starts its third year.

Laszlo Birinyi, who told clients to buy as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009, says gains that added about $28 trillion to global share values will outlast previous increases as investors who missed the first phase play catch-up. Valuations are still below historical averages, said Barton Biggs, the hedge-fund manager who purchased stocks before the S&P 500’s 95 percent advance.

Rallies in equities, corporate debt and commodities illustrate how the more than $12 trillion pumped into the financial system by governments and central banks is spurring a recovery from the worst global recession since the 1930s. While bears say prices will fall once stimulus ends, billionaire Kenneth Fisher and Byron Wien of Blackstone Group LP are betting on stocks whose profits are most tied to economic growth.”

I am less Bullish than this crew, but I do think the rally could end with a melt up.  More on that in part 3 of our End of QE series later today . . .


Birinyi Buys as Biggest Bull Rally Since ’55 Hits Third Year
Michael Patterson, Whitney Kisling and Rita Nazareth
Bloomberg, March 9 2011

Category: Investing, Really, really bad calls

Jews Caused the Credit Crisis!

Here comes the anti-Christ!

As a Jew, I get insane emails such as this every single day — you damned kikes caused the credit crisis! — but this is the first time I have seen such a pathetic loon in a video:

Rather than sweep this under the rug, we should publicize these eejits for the haters that they are.

A man of God?  I don’t think so . . .

Category: Really, really bad calls, Video

Boskin’s Bottom Tick: Obama’s Killing the Dow

Daniel Gross tweeted this blast from the past : flashback: 2 years ago this week, Michael Boskin penned WSJ op-ed: “Obama’s Radicalism is Killing the Dow.” Market has nearly doubled since. My post 6 months later — Michael Boskin on “The Obama Crash” — pointed out how wrong Boskin was (which is pretty true about…Read More

Category: Investing, Politics, Really, really bad calls

Industry Code: IBGYBG

The phrase I was looking for in the last post was “I’ll be gone. You’ll be gone.”

Iain Bryson was the first who suggested it, and I then tracked it down to a few sources, the first of which was Jonathan A. Knee’s “Accidental Investment Banker.

Its also mentioned in this 2009 video:


click for video

Transcript after the jump

Read More

Category: Bailouts, Derivatives, Really, really bad calls, Wages & Income

Crowd Source: Get Yours and Get Out

I am trying to track down an expression and its original source I saw some time ago. It is some variation of: Get Yours and Get Out Get Mine Before it all comes down but I simply cannot locate now. There was an acronym — GMAGO? that went with it. ~~~ Any one have any…Read More

Category: Really, really bad calls

What a schmuck: The worst central banker in the history of planet earth has a something new to say: U.S. government “activism” — fiscal stimulus, housing subsidies and new regulations — is holding back the economic recovery. No word on how his central bank activism — ultra-low rates, radical deregulation, and nonfeasance of his regulatory…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Federal Reserve, Really, really bad calls

The Cramer Abides

Dow Jones’ Paul Vigna has had it up to here with James Cramer. Yesterday, in a post titled Jim Cramer is an Insufferable Jackass, Vigna laces into the C-man for “bad calls” and other issues. With great chivalry, he defends the honor of (the fair maiden) Kelly Evans who, despite her apparent youthfulness, needs no…Read More

Category: Financial Press, Really, really bad calls, Television

Is McKinsey & Co. the Root of All Evil ?

“Enron has built a reputation as one of the world’s most innovative companies by attacking and atomising traditional industry structures.” -McKinsey report, published a few months before Enron’s collapse. > Rajat Gupta was more than a mere board member of Goldman Sachs, Procter & Gamble, and others. He ran McKinsey & Co. from 1994 to…Read More

Category: Legal, Really, really bad calls

GOP: More Madoffs, Please

Percent Change SEC Staff Workload: 1991 – 2000 Chart sourced via GAO analysis of SEC data > If you can’t stop the legislation, you can defund it. That is what our Chart of the Day shows, the net impact of defunding regulation. As we previously discussed 1 year ago (SEC: Defective by Design?), there has…Read More

Category: Derivatives, Really, really bad calls, Regulation

QOTD: Greenspan on Financial Innovation

The Maestro: “Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as subprime loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. . . . With these advances in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers. . . . Where once more-marginal…Read More

Category: Really, really bad calls