Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”
Here we are beginning the final 2 weeks of the year.
The economy continues to limp along, improving, albeit rather slowly. “Recession fatigue” is likely to make this holiday consumption spree appreciably better than the past 2 years.
Markets have looked a bit tired — and yet — every opportunity to see big whackage has been met by liquidity driven buying. The bid beneath equities remains firm. The bias remains firmly to the upside.
With this year all but over, traders are starting to turn their attention to 2011. Corporate profits appear to be strong, but headwinds include unemployment and real estate. I continue to expect further contraction in RE prices, and my participation in the Case Shiller survey reflects that.
Rotation out of bonds is a major source buying buyer, following 18 months of main street preferences for fixed income products. It is ironic that mom and pop were Treasury buyers during what is likely to be the last gasps of a 30 year bull market in bonds.
Talk about late to the party!
History shows us that the public tends to be the last in. From the shoeshine boy in the roaring 1920s, to buyers of the Nifty-Fifty in the Sixties, then dot com stocks in the 1990s, and once again with bonds in the 2000s, main street joins Wall Street when their greed overwhelms their better sense. It is sad but don’t blame me, I am only pointing out this truth.
Don’t be surprised if the public’s rush into commodities marks that as a top, as well — including Gold.
This is a holiday shortened week — markets closed Friday for Christmas — so we could see some interesting action. The week after are little more than rookies manning the terminals, thin trading, and last minute position closings.
Around this time of year, I like to ask traders and investors the following: What is your plan for next year? What have you learned from your mistakes, what did you do right? (The 2009 Investing Mea Culpas were well received; Look for my 2010 mea culpas next month)
In tday’s NYT, Joe Nocera calls out FCIC member and long time AEI analyst Peter Wallison, and his inconsistent narrative about Fannie and Freddie: “As he wrote in 2004, “Study after study have shown that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, despite full-throated claims about trillion-dollar commitments and the like, have failed to lead the private…Read More
All last year, I kept getting emails from people asking me: “Why do you keep hammering on these issues? Why do you beat up on the eejits who push the Fannie Freddie CRA meme? Its dead, everyone knows its nonsense.” Except, not so much. That 4 members of the FCIC could push such as discredited…Read More
I never wanted to write Bailout Nation. That only came about after Bear Stearns collapsed. McGraw Hill approached Bill Fleckenstein to do a follow up to his successful Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve, about the end of Bear. Fleck turned them down. When the publisher asked him who else was…Read More
Back in October, I mentioned the website that gone viral: “Where’s the Note.com.” It allowed homeowners to easily request to see a copy of their mortgage note. Yesterday, I noted that at least one Homeowner had made a “wheresthenote.com” Mortgage Note request, only to see Bank of America report the request as a dispute to…Read More
Here is the latest oddity out of Florida: Homestead-exemption tax break, intended for resident homeowners who actually live in their Florida homes, is instead accruing to the banks that are repossessing homes via foreclosure. The Orlando Sentinel has the details: Local governments across the state are losing revenue because banks are getting the homestead-exemption tax…Read More
Sometimes, the best defense is a good offense. That seems to be the approach that notorious robo-signing firm Nationwide Title Clearing has taken in responding to some of its critics. If you are unfamiliar with their name, you might recall earlier this Fall when depositions of several Nationwide robo-signers employees went viral on YouTube (We…Read More
We were waiting for the end of the world, waiting for the end of the world, waiting for the end of the world. Dear Lord I sincerely hope you’re coming ’cause you really started something. -Elvis Costello, Waiting For The End Of The World > In today’s LA Times, Tom Petruno looks at the Zombie…Read More
by James Bianco Bianco Research November 18, 2010 > The Wall Street Journal – Burton G. Malkiel: ‘Buy and Hold’ Is Still a Winner An investor who used index funds and stayed the course could have earned satisfactory returns even during the first decade of the 21st century. “Many obituaries have been written for the…Read More
The Economist asks: “Fifty years after the dawn of empirical financial economics, is anyone the wiser?” My short answer: “Only the people who understand both the data and its limitations, and not get lost in the illusion of precision.” Markets are driven by myriad factors, most of which are readily quantifiable. But the small number…Read More