Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”

Alan Greenspan on the Dunning–Kruger Effect

Did I write The Dunning–Kruger effect?

I mean “Activism.”

You see, Mr. “1%.FOMC.Rates-Nonfeasance-banks.can.self.regulate-its.called.innovation-Greenspan.Put,” had the unmitigated gall, the colossal cojones, the planet sized testicles to blame the current slow recovery on Government Intervention!

Given how utterly unaware the former Fed Chairman is of his own gross incompetentcies, I thought if I used the actual, title no one would believe me.

Alan Greenspan on Activism

Abstract: The US recovery from the 2008 financial and economic crisis has been disappointingly tepid. What is most notable in sifting through the variables that might conceivably account for the lacklustre rebound in GDP growth and the persistence of high unemployment is the unusually low level of corporate illiquid long-term fixed asset investment. As a share of corporate liquid cash flow, it is at its lowest level since 1940. This contrasts starkly with the robust recovery in the markets for liquid corporate securities. What, then, accounts for this exceptionally elevated level of illiquidity aversion? I break down the broad potential  sources, and analyse them with standard regression techniques. I infer that a minimum of half and possibly as much as three-fourths of the effect can be explained by the shock of vastly  greater uncertainties embedded in the competitive, regulatory and financial environments faced by businesses since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, deriving from the surge in government activism. This explanation is buttressed by comparison with similar conundrums experienced during the 1930s. I conclude that the current government activism is hampering what should be a broad-based robust economic recovery, driven in significant part by the positive wealth effect of a buoyant U.S. and global stock market.

Perhaps Messrs Dunning and Kruger would not mind if we renamed their research the Alan Greenspan Effect?


Source: PDF
Greenspan on Activism
Council on Foreign Relations

Category: Bailouts, Federal Reserve, Really, really bad calls

TARP + GSE: $257 Billion in the Red

click for larger chart > No, we are not profitable on the bailouts. TARP has $123B to go before breakeven, and the GSEs are $133B in the hole. All told, the Taxpayers have a long way to go before we are breakeven. That’s before we count lost income from savings, bonds, etc., the increased costs…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Really, really bad calls, Taxes and Policy

Radiation Concerns Increase

Nothing to see here, move along, nothing to worry about: • NHK Live Video Feed (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) • More Workers Join Race to Prevent Meltdown at Nuclear Plant (Bloomberg) More than 300 workers are racing to prevent a meltdown and spread of radiation at the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi power station today, an increase from…Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Energy, Really, really bad calls

Bad Oehmen: Confirmation Bias, Sources & Astroturfing

The tragedy in Japan is still unfolding. To those of you who are curious as to how your own brains operate, and what various reactions mean to your investments, this is what we might call a teachable moment. Back on March 13th, Ron Dodson sent me a Tweet touting an “MIT scientist’s take on Japan.”…Read More

Category: Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Trading, Web/Tech

The Strange Case of Josef Oehmen

This was originally from Genius Now site, but they seem to have exceed their bandwidth, and it is being reposted here until such time as they are back up. ~~~ The Strange Case of Josef Oehmen In the wake of the nuclear incidents in Japan, a great deal of information and misinformation has been spread…Read More

Category: Energy, Really, really bad calls, Think Tank

No, Kudlow Did Not Mean That . . .

The intertubes are all abuzz about something Larry Kudlow said on TV last week: CNBC’s Kudlow: Be grateful the human toll is much worse than the economic toll from Japan quake! (This message on Google Buzz) CNBC’s Larry Kudlow illustrates why there’s such hatred of the Wall Street ethic, as he suggests that we should…Read More

Category: Really, really bad calls, Television, UnScience

Surprisingly Good iPad 2 reviews

For those of you thinking about picking up Apple’s new iPad2, the reviews are out — and they are pretty damned good: • Engadget: “The iPad 2 isn’t just the best tablet on the market, it feels like the only tablet on the market • NYT/Pogue: “The iPad will still dominate the market” • WSJ/Mossberg:…Read More

Category: Really, really bad calls, Technology

Birinyi, Biggs, Fisher: Buy Year 3 of Rally

I do not recall who else was calling a bottom in March 2009 — there seems to be many more folks making the claim than occurred in real time– but Birinyi was certainly one of them. [UPDATE: Several of you point to this March 29 2011 Bloomberg story quoting Birinyi saying sell: Investors who own…Read More

Category: Investing, Really, really bad calls

Jews Caused the Credit Crisis!

Here comes the anti-Christ!

As a Jew, I get insane emails such as this every single day — you damned kikes caused the credit crisis! — but this is the first time I have seen such a pathetic loon in a video:

Rather than sweep this under the rug, we should publicize these eejits for the haters that they are.

A man of God?  I don’t think so . . .

Category: Really, really bad calls, Video

Boskin’s Bottom Tick: Obama’s Killing the Dow

Daniel Gross tweeted this blast from the past : flashback: 2 years ago this week, Michael Boskin penned WSJ op-ed: “Obama’s Radicalism is Killing the Dow.” Market has nearly doubled since. My post 6 months later — Michael Boskin on “The Obama Crash” — pointed out how wrong Boskin was (which is pretty true about…Read More

Category: Investing, Politics, Really, really bad calls