Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”
Economists are now admitting that we are in a recession in the US, according to National Association for Business Economics (NABE). 96% of their survey respondents said the U.S. is in recession today.
Hey guys — thanks for the news flash! With the S&P down 47%, telling us that the US is in a recession is about as helpful as telling the survivors of the Titanic to take vitamin C for a cold.
Especially when considering that most of the professional economists, as recently as the late summer, were arguing that the US was going to avoid a recession. Many had claimed the US was in for a soft landing.
Here are some of the backward looking aftcasts* of the NABE panel:
-Consumer spending accounted for most of the downward revisions to the overall economic outlook, reflecting a worse outlook for household wealth and income.
-96% of the NABE panelists believe that a recession has begun.
-Half of the panel estimates that the recession started in the fourth quarter of 2007 or in the first quarter of 2008
-Just over 60% of the NABE respondents expect that the depth of the recession should be relatively contained, with a peak-to-trough decline in real GDP of less than 1.5%, with the balance expecting a harsher contraction.
-The jobless rate is expected to rise to 7.5% by year-end, 2009
-Lower inflation is predicted to coincide with increased economic slack.
* Aftcast: A forecast of what has already occurred, often weeks or months ago . . .
NABE Panel Sees Prolonged Recession
NABE November 2008
Mr. Moulle-Berteaux, along with Barton Biggs, is a partner of Traxis Partners, a hedge fund firm based in New York. They have had a series of disasterous calls recently: Shorting Oil three years ago at $50, and a mere 6 months ago, this horrific call in the WSJ, declaring the end of problems in residential…Read More
Today’s really, really bad call harkens back to November 2006: > > Well, they were half right. When that NAR ad campaign came out exactly two years ago, it was a pretty damned good time to sell a home. Buying one ? Not so much . . . > > Previously: It’s a great time…Read More
Interesting piece on how mortgage workers were comped during the heyday by John Quigley, titled Compensation and Incentives in the Mortgage Business. It goes a long way to explaining why so many people did such silly things during the boom: They were well paid to do so! A quick excerpt: The incentive structure that arose…Read More