Posts filed under “Really, really bad calls”

Aftcasting Recession . . .

Economists are now admitting that we are in a recession in the US, according to National Association for Business Economics (NABE). 96% of their survey respondents said the U.S. is in recession today.

Hey guys — thanks for the news flash! With the S&P down 47%, telling us that the US is in a recession is about as helpful as telling the survivors of the Titanic to take vitamin C for a cold.

Especially when considering that most of the professional economists, as recently as the late summer, were arguing that the US was going to avoid a recession. Many had claimed the US was in for a soft landing.

Here are some of the backward looking aftcasts* of the NABE panel:

-Consumer spending accounted for most of the downward revisions to the overall economic outlook, reflecting a worse outlook for household wealth and income.
-96% of the NABE panelists believe that a recession has begun.
-Half of the panel estimates that the recession started in the fourth quarter of 2007 or in the first quarter of 2008
-Just over 60% of the NABE respondents expect that the depth of the recession should be relatively contained, with a peak-to-trough decline in real GDP of less than 1.5%, with the balance expecting a harsher contraction.
-The jobless rate is expected to rise to 7.5% by year-end, 2009
-Lower inflation is predicted to coincide with increased economic slack.

* Aftcast: A forecast of what has already occurred, often weeks or months ago . . .

>

Source:
NABE Panel Sees Prolonged Recession
NABE November 2008

http://www.nabe.com/publib/macsum.html

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Markets, Really, really bad calls

The Housing Crisis Is Over (Ha!)

Mr. Moulle-Berteaux, along with Barton Biggs, is a partner of Traxis Partners, a hedge fund firm based in New York. They have had a series of disasterous calls recently: Shorting Oil three years ago at $50, and a mere 6 months ago, this horrific call in the WSJ, declaring the end of problems in residential…Read More

Category: Markets, Real Estate, Really, really bad calls

Follow Up: “It’s a great time to buy or sell a home!”

Today’s really, really bad call harkens back to November 2006: > > Well, they were half right. When that NAR ad campaign came out exactly two years ago, it was a pretty damned good time to sell a home. Buying one ? Not so much . . . > > Previously: It’s a great time…Read More

Category: Markets, Psychology, Real Estate, Really, really bad calls

Compensation Structures in Mortgage Industry

Interesting piece on how mortgage workers were comped during the heyday by John Quigley, titled Compensation and Incentives in the Mortgage Business. It goes a long way to explaining why so many people did such silly things during the boom: They were well paid to do so! A quick excerpt: The incentive structure that arose…Read More

Category: Markets, Real Estate, Really, really bad calls, Wages & Income

Ratings agencies: ‘Kool-Aid drinking’ lapdogs

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Real Estate, Really, really bad calls

S&P: We Knew Nothing! Nothing!

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Legal, Really, really bad calls

Can the Fed Pop Bubbles (And If So, How)?

Category: Bailouts, Economy, Markets, Really, really bad calls, Trading

Why is Barron’s Banned From CNBC?

Category: Financial Press, Really, really bad calls, Television, Trading

The Economy is Just Fine . . .

Category: Economy, Financial Press, Really, really bad calls

Quote of the Day: Aggressive lending to 1st-time buyers

Category: Credit, Real Estate, Really, really bad calls