Posts filed under “Research”

By John Robertson and Ellyn Terry

A recent Wall Street Journal blog post caught our attention. In particular, the following claim:

It’s not size that matters—at least when it comes to job creation. The age of the company is a bigger factor.

This observation is something we have also been thinking a lot about over the past few years (see for example, here, here, and here).

The following chart shows the average job-creation rate of expanding firms and the average job-destruction rates of shrinking firms from 1987 to 2011, broken out by various age and size categories:

In the chart, the colors represent age categories, and the sizes of the dot represent size categories. So, for example, the biggest blue dot in the far northeast quadrant shows the average rate of job creation and destruction for firms that are very young and very large. The tiny blue dot in the far east region of the chart represents the average rate of job creation and destruction for firms that are very young and very small. If an age-size dot is above the 45-degree line, then average net job creation of that firm size-age combination is positive—that is, more jobs are created than destroyed at those firms. (Note that the chart excludes firms less than one year old because, by definition in the data, they can have only job creation.)

The chart shows two things. First, the rate of job creation and destruction tends to decline with firm age. Younger firms of all sizes tend to have higher job-creation (and job-destruction) rates than their older counterparts. That is, the blue dots tend to lie above the green dots, and the green dots tend to be above the orange dots.

The second feature is that the rate of job creation at larger firms of all ages tends to exceed the rate of job destruction, whereas small firms tend to destroy more jobs than they create, on net. That is, the larger dots tend to lie above the 45-degree line, but the smaller dots are below the 45-degree line.

As pointed out in the WSJ blog post and by others (see, for example, work by the Kauffman Foundation here and here), once you control for firm size, firm age is the more important factor when measuring the rate of job creation. However, young firms are more dynamic in general, with rapid net growth balanced against a very high failure rate. (See this paper by John Haltiwanger for more on this up-or-out dynamic.) Apart from new firms, it seems that the combination of youth (between one and ten years old) and size (more than 250 employees) has tended to yield the highest rate of net job creation.

Source: Macroblog

Category: Employment, Research, Think Tank

Fed Laughter and Housing Prices

Source: Elliot-today     Earlier this week, we discussed the amount of laughter in FOMC meetings as a sign that the Fed was not fully cognizant of the coming financial storm. Today’s chart adds another component to this, overlaying Fed laughs with Case Shiller residential real estate price index, via Elliot-today. Perhaps the best way…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Real Estate, Research

Economic Indicators Dashboard

Source: Russell Investments

Category: Economy, Investing, Markets, Research

Source: The Fix

Category: Research

Living With Extreme Weather

click for full size interactive site Source: Bloomberg Visual Data

Category: Digital Media, Research, Science

Technoglobe

Source: Economist

Category: Digital Media, Markets, Research, Technology, Web/Tech

New Population of the US in Units of Canadas

Source: Stephen’s Lighthouse

Category: Digital Media, Humor, Research

Wealthometer: How Does Your Houshold Wealth Compare?

Click for an interactive calculator. Source: Wealthometer   Income inequality has been all over the news this year. Political fights about raising the minimum wage are in the near future. A related, but just as fascinating, issue is how wealth is distributed. Click through on the calculator above, and you can see where your families…Read More

Category: Economy, Research, Taxes and Policy, Wages & Income

The Plural of Anecdote Is Not Data

Source: Nestler Analytics

Category: Bad Math, Data Analysis, Digital Media, Research

Mapping Poverty in America

Click for an interactive graphic. Source: NY Times   If you missed it over the weekend, Sunday’s New York Times had an amazing interactive graphic on where poverty is in the U.S. Over the past 50 years, the poverty rate in the nation has fallen from 19 percent to 15 percent in essentially two generations….Read More

Category: Economy, Research, Wages & Income