Posts filed under “Research”

The Plural of Anecdote Is Not Data


Source: Nestler Analytics

Category: Bad Math, Data Analysis, Digital Media, Research

Mapping Poverty in America

Click for an interactive graphic. Source: NY Times   If you missed it over the weekend, Sunday’s New York Times had an amazing interactive graphic on where poverty is in the U.S. Over the past 50 years, the poverty rate in the nation has fallen from 19 percent to 15 percent in essentially two generations….Read More

Category: Economy, Research, Wages & Income

The Graying of America (Or Bad Demography)

I never really liked the classic definition of boomers as those born 1946 to 1964. Its overbroad, and well, wrong. That age cohort should really end in 1959. I see why they Demographers made up that range — its so there is a seamless, artificial flow right into to the Gen X group, born 1965…Read More

Category: Bad Math, Research

The Occasional Yin and Yang of Research

Two reports from different wirehouses caught my eye yesterday due to their amazing Yin and Yang nature. First up, the always excellent Equity & Quant Strategist at BAML, Savita Subramanian (the Yin), issued a report titled Wall St. Proclaims the Death of Equities. The report discusses the firm’s proprietary sell-side indicator, which has reached near…Read More

Category: Analysts, Data Analysis, Earnings, Investing, Markets, Research

In Retrospect, It Was No Joke

Rosenberg, exactly 5 years ago today in May 2007: > click for full report > Invictus here. In my Barron’s Big Money post, I mentioned attending a small dinner in October 2007 at which David Rosenberg was the speaker. In comments, Hamann asked if I could provide any additional insight into what he had shared…Read More

Category: Analysts, Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate, Research

A Quick (and Belated) Look at Flow of Funds

Though the data are always a bit dated, the Fed’s Flow of Funds report is always of interest to me, as it paints fairly comprehensive pictures.  My favorite part of the release is Table B.100: Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations, in which much can be gleaned about the health of households in the…Read More

Category: Credit, Current Affairs, Data Analysis, Economy, Research

A Correlation Worth Noting?

> The folks at the St. Louis Fed – about whom I can’t say enough good things — produce a proprietary Financial Stress Index, a full explanation of which can be found here [PDF]. A full deconstruction of the Index is, frankly, a bit above my pay grade.  What’s not, though, is exploring the correlation…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Investing, Markets, Research

Setting the Record Straight

A chart made the rounds last week that purported to prove Nouriel Roubini and David Rosenberg are excellent contrary indicators as relates to the stock market.  The chart was simply the S&P500 annotated with alleged market commentary by the pair — bearish at the lows, bullish at the highs.  It eventually made its way over to the estimable Doug Kass, who posted it.  (Mr. Kass had no part in the chart’s creation, and this is not a quibble with his decision to post it. Further, I’m a big fan of his contrarian style.)

The truth — at least as it relates to Rosie — tells a bit of a different story.  In March of 2009 — on the 4th, to be precise — Dave was “looking for reasons to turn bullish” and “believe[d] the stage [was] being set for sentiment to become completely washed out, which is what it takes for contrarians to become constructive.”

Below is a page from his report that day (highlights were made by me three years ago and not for this post):

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Category: Really, really bad calls, Research

Nobel Laureates and Economic Prosperity

> The graphic above, via Jon Bruner of Forbes, reflects the enormous American contribution to Arts & Sciences over the past century. What is intriguing is not just that the US has won so many prizes, but that the a third of American Nobels have gone to immigrants to the US: “The United States has…Read More

Category: Philosophy, Research, Science, Technology

Weekend Smorgasbord from Invictus

Herewith a potpourri of unrelated items I’ve found on my never-ending voyage through the internet. Grab a cup of coffee and pull up a chair. Seen This Movie Before First up, an excerpt from a speech given by Teddy Roosevelt in December 1906. I was taken by the opening line and the third paragraph. Indeed,…Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Data Analysis, Economy, Politics, Research, Taxes and Policy