Posts filed under “Research”

In Retrospect, It Was No Joke

Rosenberg, exactly 5 years ago today in May 2007:
click for full report


Invictus here.

In my Barron’s Big Money post, I mentioned attending a small dinner in October 2007 at which David Rosenberg was the speaker. In comments, Hamann asked if I could provide any additional insight into what he had shared that night.

While I cannot produce his presentation from that evening, I have found, and posted in Think Tank, his 55-page deck from May 2007. This report is exactly 5 years old today.

There are many interesting slides -  Page 8 for starters. And virtually the entire section on the housing market, Page 27 in particular. The whole deck is worth a browse. (I’m considering updating as many charts as I can to incorporate the last five years; should be an interesting exercise. Will post here if/when I get that done.)

In keeping with Rosie’s devilish sense of humor, the deck’s title – Soft Now, Hard Later? (referring, of course, to economic “landings”) – got meetings off on a lighthearted note (about the only lighthearted part of those meetings), as the requisite Pfizer/Viagra jokes circulated among a giggling audience. That was about the extent of what they found humorous once the session got underway. And, for the record, word came from on high that the title was too provocative and needed to be changed, which it was. Absolutely no sense of humor in those ivory towers.



Category: Analysts, Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate, Research

A Quick (and Belated) Look at Flow of Funds

Though the data are always a bit dated, the Fed’s Flow of Funds report is always of interest to me, as it paints fairly comprehensive pictures.  My favorite part of the release is Table B.100: Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations, in which much can be gleaned about the health of households in the…Read More

Category: Credit, Current Affairs, Data Analysis, Economy, Research

A Correlation Worth Noting?

> The folks at the St. Louis Fed – about whom I can’t say enough good things — produce a proprietary Financial Stress Index, a full explanation of which can be found here [PDF]. A full deconstruction of the Index is, frankly, a bit above my pay grade.  What’s not, though, is exploring the correlation…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Investing, Markets, Research

Setting the Record Straight

A chart made the rounds last week that purported to prove Nouriel Roubini and David Rosenberg are excellent contrary indicators as relates to the stock market.  The chart was simply the S&P500 annotated with alleged market commentary by the pair — bearish at the lows, bullish at the highs.  It eventually made its way over to the estimable Doug Kass, who posted it.  (Mr. Kass had no part in the chart’s creation, and this is not a quibble with his decision to post it. Further, I’m a big fan of his contrarian style.)

The truth — at least as it relates to Rosie — tells a bit of a different story.  In March of 2009 — on the 4th, to be precise — Dave was “looking for reasons to turn bullish” and “believe[d] the stage [was] being set for sentiment to become completely washed out, which is what it takes for contrarians to become constructive.”

Below is a page from his report that day (highlights were made by me three years ago and not for this post):

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Category: Really, really bad calls, Research

Nobel Laureates and Economic Prosperity

> The graphic above, via Jon Bruner of Forbes, reflects the enormous American contribution to Arts & Sciences over the past century. What is intriguing is not just that the US has won so many prizes, but that the a third of American Nobels have gone to immigrants to the US: “The United States has…Read More

Category: Philosophy, Research, Science, Technology

Weekend Smorgasbord from Invictus

Herewith a potpourri of unrelated items I’ve found on my never-ending voyage through the internet. Grab a cup of coffee and pull up a chair. Seen This Movie Before First up, an excerpt from a speech given by Teddy Roosevelt in December 1906. I was taken by the opening line and the third paragraph. Indeed,…Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Data Analysis, Economy, Politics, Research, Taxes and Policy

The Census Bureau released its annual report on Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage: 2010 (full PDF)  this morning.  Barry has posted the slide presentation that staff went through during the conference call over in the Think Tank (please have a look).  The (very ugly) bullet points from the release can be found here, and the…Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Research, Wages & Income

Save the Statistical Abstract

Via Paul Krugman, I’m led to this WaPo piece about the imminent demise of the Statistical Abstract of the United States, which is an invaluable resource for all manner of at-a-glance data.  Regardless of one’s ideology or political leanings, I think we can all agree that more information is better, less information not as good,…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Research

The Punditry Chronicles

Forecasting is a rough gig that often confounds even those who do it for a living and generally do it well. Situational awareness (see e.g., this and this), on the other hand, is all about knowing “what you need to know not to be surprised,” and having “the ability to maintain a constant, clear mental…Read More

Category: Analysts, Contrary Indicators, Really, really bad calls, Research

FRED Gets Even Better: Excel Add-in

The St. Louis Fed’s huge data repository, FRED, now has an incredible new feature:  an Excel Add-in, which is available here.  I’ve been test-driving the add-in for a month or so, and am very impressed with its capabilities.  If you’re a user of the FRED database, you may want to check it out for yourself….Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Research