Posts filed under “Research”

Fade the Inflation Hysteria

Tons of talk and pixels being spilled over the imminent inflation threat.  It bears an eerie resemblance to what we heard from the likes of Jerry Bowyer and Art Laffer two years ago.  I’d fade it now, exactly as I suggested back then (here and here, the latter piece co-authored with Bonddad):

Exhibit A — The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (PDF)

When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a period of sustained increasing inflation has begun.


Current read of CFNAI-MA3:  +0.11, and that with three of the four subcomponents doing the heavy lifting while one — Consumption & Housing — remains mired near multi-year lows and shows no signs of recovering any time soon.  We might actually get a good call out of Bowyer or Laffer before we get to +0.70 on CFNAI-3MA — it’s gonna be a while.

Exhibit B — The Money Multiplier — all that heavy breathing about the flood of liquidity that was going to pour into the system.  Hyper-inflation!  Except not so much, apparently.  As David Rosenberg (who was spot-on in his assessment of the last bogus inflation scare) put it in his Monday note:

Fully 100% of both QEs by the Fed merely was new money printing that ended up sitting idly on commercial bank balance sheets. Money velocity and the money multiplier are stagnant at best.


Those who still think the credit spigots are going to open any moment now, consider this:  We know that consumer credit, ex-student loans, is still contracting.  And we know from National Federation of Independent Business that “the vast majority of small businesses (93 percent) reported that all their credit needs were met or that they were not interested in borrowing.”

Exhibit C — This remarkable chart that I’ve cribbed from Minyanville, though the original source is Bloomberg.  What happens if there’s no QE3?


(The chart above was really a stunner.)

Exhibits D and E

Two more reasons with a couple of homemade charts:  Inflation has a very high correlation to the labor market.  Indeed, the roots of inflation are generally found in higher labor costs.  We are just not seeing upward pressure on labor costs — there is simply still too much slack in the system and the Unemployment Rate is too high.  Unit Labor Costs and CPI sport a high +0.88 correlation:



Average Hourly Earnings and CPI have a +0.79 correlation:

The Fed is on the record with their assessment that any bout of inflation will be “transitory.”  I concur, as does this new Chicago Fed paper, and our old friend David Rosenberg (last week):

The key to the outlook for inflation is not commodities — it is the labour market.  We have a situation where wages in nominal terms are running at +1.7% on a year-over-year rate and productivity is running at +2.0%.  So we have unit labor costs fractionally deflating as they have been consistently since 2009 Q1.  Go back to the 1970s, and guess how many quarters unit labor costs deflated?  Try none.  By the end of the 1970s, unit labor costs had surged at nearly a 7% annual rate for the decade as a whole; not sub-zero as is the case today.

And the last word to Rosie (from Monday’s note):

And it remains a legitimate question as to how we end up with inflation as credit contracts. Not just in the consumer and housing sectors, but in the government sector too. The state and local government sectors have dramatically cut back on bond issuance this year and are cancelling capital projects in the process. We see on the front page of the weekend WSJ this headline ― Inflation Drives a Shift in Markets and right above it is Deadline Drama Over Budget. Not only is household credit contracting, but the same is happening at the government level. This is deflationary, not inflationary, and once commodities settle down ― they are volatile and self-correcting as we have seen in the past ― all this talk of inflation is going to subside pretty quickly.

Finally,  on a semi-related matter, the NY Times ran an interesting piece that follows up nicely on my recent post highlighting the growth in student loans.

Category: Commodities, Current Affairs, Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy, Inflation, Markets, Research, Wages & Income

MER: Pondering How Things Might Have Been Different

Invictus here. I’m halfway through Greg Farrell’s Crash of the Titans: Greed, Hubris, the Fall of Merrill Lynch, and the Near-Collapse of Bank of America. Perhaps I’ll post a thorough review when I’m done with it. So far, so good, though I’ll confess it’s a bit like watching one’s own funeral — very morbid; sad…Read More

Category: Research

The U.S. Wealth Barbell

Duly noted in a research piece by Merrill Lynch, the wealth gap continues to widen, poverty grows: The following article caught our attention on the Wall Street Journal Online, “Millionaire Population Soars – Again.” The Wall Street Journal is reporting on a survey performed by Phoenix Marketing International’s Affluent Market Practice. According to the survey,…Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Data Analysis, Economy, Research

Refi Madness: The Heat is Frying your Brain (Redux)

It is a very hot August and the heat seems to be getting to people on Wall Street. In Washington the greater heat stems from fears about the impact of the economy and housing on the mid-term elections. As a result, Wall Street is expecting a big “surprise” in the form of a massive GSE…Read More

Category: Credit, Real Estate, Really, really bad calls, Research

TBP “Déjà Vu All Over Again” Post

Warning:  The following post is offered in the spirit of shameless self-promotion. Those who prowl the web and consume all manner of economic research probably saw some things late last week that looked eerily familiar.  Maybe you could place them, maybe you couldn’t.  Perhaps you wondered, “Where have I seen that before?”  Well, in at…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Research

“Recovery” Bypassing Small Businesses

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its monthly Small Business Economic Trends (SBET) survey, and the outlook for small businesses is still not good.  The NFIB counts its membership at about 350,000 small businesses. The overall Optimism Index declined in the month of March to 86.8, roughly the same level it was at…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Markets, Psychology, Research

Exonerating the Shorts

Interesting discussion by the always worth reading Mark Hulbert about a recent research paper on Short Selling. While I agree with the paper’s conclusion, it overlooks two major related issues regarding short selling. Let’s look at a few excerpts first: “Short-selling became particularly controversial during the recent bear market, when many of its practitioners turned…Read More

Category: Research, Short Selling

NBER: Having It Both Ways?

There seems to be growing consensus that the recession ended some time in mid-2009 (June or July), and we recently pointed out that regional St. Louis Fed economists have placed their bets on a July 2009 trough. Now it’s up to the NBER. We know that they weigh a variety of economic indicators, including Employment, Industrial…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Research

The St. Louis Fed has made it official, at least through their lens.  The recession ended in June 2009.  As you read here first in January, late last year the St. Louis Fed discontinued the use of  recession shading (thereby signalling its end) in its graphs as of mid-2009. They have now retooled their Tracking the Recession page to…Read More

Category: Cycles, Economy, Employment, Research

Luskin: Buy Stocks, Buy Citi (11/07) Sell Stocks (3/09)

Invictus is a bulge bracket asset manager with $100+ million AUM. He has no patience for money losers, hacks, partisans pretending to be financial analysts . . .  this is the first in a series of critical looks at analysts, media, economists, financial TV. Feel free to share any thoughts in comments. Here’s Invictus: ~~~…Read More

Category: Analysts, Media, Really, really bad calls, Research