Posts filed under “Retail”

The Tiresome Holiday Sales Forecast Pattern

• Reuters – U.S. retailers scramble after lackluster holiday sales

The 2012 holiday season may have been the worst for retailers since the 2008 financial crisis, with sales growth far below expectations, forcing many to offer massive post-Christmas discounts in hopes of shedding excess inventory. While chains like Wal-Mart Stores Inc and Gap Inc are thought to have done well, analysts expect much less from the likes of book seller Barnes & Noble Inc and department store chain J. C. Penney Co Inc. Shares of retailers dropped sharply on Wednesday, helping drag broader indexes lower, as investors realized they were likely to be disappointed when companies start to report results in a few weeks’ time.

• The Daily Caller – US holiday retail sales growth weakest since 2008

U.S. shoppers spent cautiously this holiday season, a disappointment for retailers who slashed prices to lure people into stores and now must hope for a post-Christmas burst of spending. Sales of electronics, clothing, jewelry and home goods in the two months before Christmas increased 0.7 percent compared with last year, according to the MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse report. That was below the healthy 3 to 4 percent growth that analysts had expected — and it was the worst year-over-year performance since 2008, when spending shrank sharply during the Great Recession. In 2011, retail sales climbed 4 to 5 percent during November and December, according to ShopperTrak.



This pattern is getting tiresome as we see it year after year.

1. Right before Black Friday all the retail analysts go on financial TV forecasting a spectacular Holiday sales season

2. The initial numbers are all inaccurate  (as detailed here, here and here)

3. Retail sales disappoint versus the hype

4. 11 months later all of this is forgotten. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Category: Consumer Spending, Really, really bad calls, Retail, Think Tank

2012 Holiday Retail Sales Disappoint

We are still weeks away until we get all of the hard data about the holiday retail sales season, but the early numbers are trickling in. It appears that it was not a very merry Shopmas. We certainly did not see the 13% the National Retail Federation claimed was occurring this season. Some of the…Read More

Category: Consumer Spending, Really, really bad calls, Retail

November Sales Disappoint; What Happened to Black Friday’s 13%?

“Sales at stores open at least a year declined in November at major American store chains, including Macy’s, Nordstrom, Kohl’s and Target, sending a shiver through the retail world Thursday. The reporting period included Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the official kickoff of the critical holiday shopping season. Early reports regarding those days had been mixed,…Read More

Category: Consumer Spending, Really, really bad calls, Retail

The Future of Retailing

We were just discussing this article in the office. That sent me ahunting, and I found this analysis from PSFK. I thought this was interesting: PSFK presents Future of Retail Report 2012 View more presentations from PSFK

Category: Consumer Spending, Retail, Think Tank

Click to enlarge: Source: Institute For Self Reliance

Category: Consumer Spending, Digital Media, Retail

How to Build a Better Inbound Marketing Machine

How to Build a Better Inbound Marketing Machine View more presentations from Marketo

Category: Digital Media, Retail, Think Tank, Web/Tech

Mediocre December Retail & the Slowing Economy

“A lot of the euphoria around the holiday shopping season was misplaced. The weakness in December implies that the handoff into the first quarter was weak. The savings rate is going higher and that’s going to be a headwind for consumer spending.” -Neil Dutta, Bank of America economist, who was one of the few who…Read More

Category: Consumer Spending, Really, really bad calls, Retail

Winners & Losers: 2011 Holiday Retail

full graphic after the jump

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Category: Consumer Spending, Digital Media, Retail

Nov Retail Sales light

Nov Retail Sales were below expectations at the headline level, and also taking out auto’s and gasoline. All three rose .2% m/o/m, less than the estimates of +.4-.6%. Sales rose for auto’s, furniture, electronics, clothing, sporting goods, department stores and online retailers but fell at restaurant/bars, building materials, food/beverages and health/personal care. Bottom line, while…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Retail

Walmart Dwarfs Entire Industries And Nations

Source: Walmart Dwarfs Entire Industries And Nations Fast Co Design, December 2011

Category: Data Analysis, Retail, Think Tank