Posts filed under “Rules”
I love this comment from Dynamic Hedges:
“In cable news, debate means two opposing ideologues get equal time to spout bullshit. In trading, opposing views means someone is actually going to be right and someone is actually going to be wrong. Seek out debate and use it to clarify or disprove your thesis. Find people who will challenge your opinions and listen carefully to their arguments. Don’t be afraid to change your mind.”
That’s the difference between punditry and managing assets — with one, there are tangible results and a scorecard of success or failure; with the other, noise . . .
Lessons from the 2012 election Barry Ritholtz WASHINGTON POST November 10 2012 Wisdom can be found in many places. Whenever I encounter some momentous event with winners and losers, I try to discern broader lessons to apply elsewhere. The 2012 presidential election was no different, with lessons that can be applied to investing…Read More
> On Wednesday, I jotted down a few takeaways from the election that were applicable to investors and people running businesses. Really, it was for any one with an interest in learning from the misstep of others. I liked the idea so much I decided to expand it for my Sunday Washington Post Business Section…Read More
I am always on the look out for lessons that I can apply to investing and business. This post-election morning is not any different. Let’s take a look at some of the more interesting aspects of the election season, and try to discern what lessons there are, for investors and others to learn: 1. Process…Read More
Economists have been stumped by the past dozen years.
The Dotcom collapse was an early warning that economists, as a class, were not clued in. Sure a handful recognized that there were budding problems — think Bob Shiller — but he was notable as an exception.
Then we had the entire debacles of 2000s – derivative implosion, housing collapse, credit crisis, market crash — and we found that the vast majority of economists are academic theorists who were completely blindsided by events in the real world. And those were the good ones, as opposed to the biased hacks whose goals have nothing to do with discerning objective reality.
We need to admit that Economists, as a profession, are stumbling around in the dark.
To quote Edward Hadas, “Policymakers and pundits still make confident pronouncements, but the conclusions are radically different. The expert disagreements give away the truth: ignorance reigns.”
Hadas identifies six questions which professionals should stop pretending they can answer:
1) What creates retail inflation?
2) How do financial asset prices affect the real economy?
3) Do big fiscal deficits damage the economy?
4) What does quantitative easing actually do?
5) How much leverage is too much?
6) How to deleverage without damaging the economy?
If economists cannot explain the basic workings of the economy, perhaps we should be relying on them much less for policy advice . . .
Admit economic ignorance
By Edward Hadas
Reuters, October 31, 2012
Yet another rule to add to our ongoing collection. This one comes from Economist David Rosenberg, formerly Merrill Lynch’s chief dismal scientist, now at Gluskin Sheff: 1. In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call. 2. Never be a slave to the date – they are…Read More
Another set of instructive rules for investors, this one from Morgan Housel: 1. Nine out of 10 people in finance don’t have your best interest at heart. 2. Don’t try to predict the future. 3. Saving can be more important than investing. 4. Tune out the majority of news. 5. Emotional intelligence is more important…Read More
Nice set of rules from Wallace Witkowski of MarketWatch: 10 lessons from the market crash of 1987 1. Stay objective when others get emotional 2. Be like Buffett: Buy on the fear, sell on the greed 3. Make a crash shopping list 4. What goes up fast comes down faster 5. There’s no such thing as…Read More
After last week’s Rules frenzy, Cassandra Does Tokyo sent this in. Enjoy: ~~~ Trolling the blogosphere, it seems to be the season for sharing one’s so-called Golden Rules of Investing. So here goes… Cassandra’s 25-3/4 (or so) Tungsten-Filled Golden Rules #25-3/4. Do as I do – not as I say – but do it…Read More
> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at Ritholtz’s rules of investing. The dead tree edition has the headline Think like a contrarian: Ritholtz’s rules of investing. We have 6 rules today, and 6 more rules next week: 1 Cut your losers short and let your winners run…Read More