Posts filed under “Rules”

Bunting’s Laws of Investing

Brett Arend recently informed us of the passing of Dan Bunting, a man who “successfully managed money on behalf of private individuals and institutions for nearly 40 years.”

Over the years, Bunting had developed a series of rules that governed his investing strategies.

Here is the short version of Bunting’s Laws:

1. Sell stocks of companies that announce huge acquisitions, that overdiversify, or that spend a fortune on a lavish new headquarters.

2. Avoid stocks where management picks fights with analysts (or, by extension, hedge funds). See Overstock.com in 2005; Netflix in 2010.

3. Watch out when executives start selling a lot of stock — regardless of plausible-sounding excuses. Top execs in homebuilders, mortgage underwriters and Wall Street dumped billions before the 2008 crash.

4. “Run a mile” from all stocks in an industry going through a huge investment boom: Massive overcapacity and consequent collapse is inevitable.

5. Steer clear of investing in manufacturing companies. Their industries are usually plagued with extreme cycles of boom and bust, overcapacity and slumps.

6. Pay little attention to economists or market gurus.

7. Mistrust all mathematical trading formulas as well — they invariably fail just when you most need them to work.

8. Look for companies where the insiders are buying lots of stock.

9. Look for companies generating a lot of cash — a great sign of sustained outperformance.

10. Look for companies which have monopolies (or near monopolies), and those which manage to take out their main competitors.

11. Remember you are buying businesses, not just stocks. Pay close attention to the quality of the business, and especially the quality of the management.

12. Look for companies which have earned the trust of consumers, and which have very strong brand names.

Good list Brett, thanks for sharing.

 

 

Source:
12 stock investing rules for the next 40 years
Brett Arends
MarketWatch, Nov. 30, 2012
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/12-stock-investing-rules-for-the-next-40-years-2012-11-30

Category: Investing, Rules

QOTD: Trading versus Debating

I love this comment from Dynamic Hedges: “In cable news, debate means two opposing ideologues get equal time to spout bullshit. In trading, opposing views means someone is actually going to be right and someone is actually going to be wrong. Seek out debate and use it to clarify or disprove your thesis. Find people…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Philosophy, Rules

Lessons from the 2012 election

Lessons from the 2012 election Barry Ritholtz WASHINGTON POST November 10 2012     Wisdom can be found in many places. Whenever I encounter some momentous event with winners and losers, I try to discern broader lessons to apply elsewhere. The 2012 presidential election was no different, with lessons that can be applied to investing…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Rules

Non-Political Lessons from 2012 Election

> On Wednesday, I jotted down a few takeaways from the election that were applicable to investors and people running businesses. Really, it was for any one with an interest in learning from the misstep of others. I liked the idea so much I decided to expand it for my Sunday Washington Post Business Section…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Rules

Lessons from 2012 Presidential Election

I am always on the look out for lessons that I can apply to investing and business. This post-election morning is not any different. Let’s take a look at some of the more interesting aspects of the election season, and try to discern what lessons there are, for investors and others to learn: 1. Process…Read More

Category: Investing, Philosophy, Rules

Economists: Things We Are Ignorant About

Economists have been stumped by the past dozen years.

The Dotcom collapse was an early warning that economists, as a class, were not clued in. Sure a handful recognized that there were budding problems — think Bob Shiller — but he was notable as an exception.

Then we had the entire debacles of 2000s – derivative implosion, housing collapse, credit crisis, market crash — and we found that the vast majority of economists are academic theorists who were completely blindsided by events in the real world. And those were the good ones, as opposed to the biased hacks whose goals have nothing to do with discerning objective reality.

We need to admit that Economists, as a profession, are stumbling around in the dark.

To quote  Edward Hadas, “Policymakers and pundits still make confident pronouncements, but the conclusions are radically different. The expert disagreements give away the truth: ignorance reigns.”

Hadas identifies six questions which professionals should stop pretending they can answer:

1) What creates retail inflation?
2) How do financial asset prices affect the real economy?
3) Do big fiscal deficits damage the economy?
4) What does quantitative easing actually do?
5) How much leverage is too much?
6) How to deleverage without damaging the economy?

If economists cannot explain the basic workings of the economy, perhaps we should be relying on them much less for policy advice . . .

 

Source:
Admit economic ignorance
By Edward Hadas
Reuters, October 31, 2012
http://blogs.reuters.com/edward-hadas/2012/10/31/admit-economic-ignorance/

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Category: Economy, Really, really bad calls, Rules

Rosie’s Rules to Remember (an Economist’s Dozen)

Yet another rule to add to our ongoing collection. This one comes from Economist David Rosenberg, formerly Merrill Lynch’s chief dismal scientist, now at Gluskin Sheff: 1. In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call. 2. Never be a slave to the date – they are…Read More

Category: Rules

Morgan Housel’s 9 Financial Rules

Another set of instructive rules for investors, this one from Morgan Housel: 1. Nine out of 10 people in finance don’t have your best interest at heart. 2. Don’t try to predict the future. 3. Saving can be more important than investing. 4. Tune out the majority of news. 5. Emotional intelligence is more important…Read More

Category: Investing, Rules

10 Lessons from 1987 Market Crash

Nice set of rules from Wallace Witkowski of MarketWatch: 10 lessons from the market crash of 1987 1. Stay objective when others get emotional 2. Be like Buffett: Buy on the fear, sell on the greed 3. Make a crash shopping list 4. What goes up fast comes down faster 5. There’s no such thing as…Read More

Category: Investing, Psychology, Rules

(Not so) Golden Rules About Investing (& Not Investing)

After last week’s Rules frenzy, Cassandra Does Tokyo sent this in. Enjoy: ~~~ Trolling the blogosphere, it seems to be the season for sharing one’s so-called Golden Rules of Investing. So here goes…   Cassandra’s 25-3/4 (or so) Tungsten-Filled Golden Rules #25-3/4. Do as I do – not as I say – but do it…Read More

Category: Humor, Rules