Posts filed under “Sentiment”

Playboy Bunnies, Mila Kunis and the Myth of the Celebrity Stockpicker

Last week, I came across the following headline: “As music sales fall, sax player Kenny G turns to stockpicking.

My immediate reaction: Uh oh. The last thing any bull market needs is for celebrities to be featured in the financial press. As soon as that starts, it means the bull market must be near a top, right?

Before you nod your head in agreement, let’s do some digging to see if the contrary-indicator idea is right and not just a trading-desk anecdote. A search shows that the stock-trading celebrity is a regular feature of what is obviously a bored financial press. If only there were anything important going on that might be worth their attention, then journalists wouldn’t have to bother with this sort of fluff. But hey, nothing really important has been happening, so why not discuss the Kenny G Long Short Leveraged Alpha Fund?

Where was I? Oh, celebrity stock-picking.

Here is a brief survey of how they have done:

Continues here

 

 

 

Category: Contrary Indicators, Investing, Really, really bad calls, Sentiment

Too Bullish or Too Bearish?

One of my favorite pastimes is dissecting accepted Wall Street wisdom to see if it contains any value for investors or traders. Often, upon examination, the widely held beliefs turn out to be closer to magical thinking than financial acumen. One of the more recent examples is the way some analysts use data on sentiment…Read More

Category: Markets, Sentiment, Trading

1958: Public Investing in the Stock Market as Never Before

This week in 1958: LIFE Magazine highlights a strange new phenomenon: The public is investing in the stock market as never before. “On the average,” reports LIFE, “500,000 new customers a year have been getting into the market and 8.6 million Americans now own some kind of common or preferred stock…. To an extent which…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Sentiment

Household Rotation from Fixed Income to Equities

  Today’s chart comes to us from Torsten Slok, the chief international economist at Deutsche Bank AG. While rumors of an institutional rotation — selling equities and buying fixed income — swirl, we see the opposite behavior from households. Continues here    

Category: Investing, Sentiment

About David Tice’s 60% Crash Call . . .

Earlier this week, Prudent Bear fund founder David Tice warned of an imminent crash — as bad as 30-60% down on the S&P500. One small thing: This is pretty much the same call that Tice made in 2010 and 2012. Apparently, if you make the same crash call every 2 years, most of the media…Read More

Category: Markets, Really, really bad calls, Sentiment, Short Selling

In Stock Market, Anxiety Can Be Good Thing

Source: WSJ

Category: Digital Media, Investing, Sentiment

Mauldin: Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere

Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere By John Mauldin August 15, 2014     Easy Money Will Lead to Bubbles Excess Liquidity Creating Bubbles Humans Never Learn Anatomy of Bubbles and Crashes A Few Good Central Bankers Jack Rivkin at His Best Dallas, San Antonio, and Washington DC     The difference between genius and stupidity is that…Read More

Category: Books, Sentiment, Think Tank

Wall St Bullishness vs Equities Complacency

Funny to wake up after yesterday’s selloff to see two such diametrically opposed views from major investment houses:    

Category: Analysts, Sentiment

Edginess or Extrapolating The Unextrapolatable

Edginess. No, I am not referring to the one sought by my daughter by rolling her own and pushing boundaries (fortunately, for a parent, eschewing the tats, for now at least), but as in uneasiness, anxiety, disquietude, restiveness, worry, and an increasing sense of agitation of the type that George Soros wrote about in his…Read More

Category: Sentiment, Think Tank

Where Did All the Bulls Go?

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch, Global Research, Bloomberg   Continues here      

Category: Markets, Sentiment