Posts filed under “Sentiment”

A Bear Market for Mom & Pop Investors

Last year, we noted that there was a “Bubble in Bubble Calling.” News media bubble chatter was the rage, whether it was tech initial public offerings or stocks or bonds — all caused by “a global central bank QE bubble.”

Here we are two quarters later, with the central bank reducing quantitative easing by scaling backs it asset purchases. Markets have reached new highs, which is a highly bullish sign. The jobs lost in the great recession have been recovered, and economic data continues to trend positive.

Despite this, we still hear bubble chatter. Yet when we look at what individuals are doing with their investments, their behavior is definitely bearish. According to a study published in the Financial Analysts Journal, equity ownership has fallen to the lowest level in more than a half-century. In 2012, investors held a mere 37.7 percent of their portfolios in equities. That was out of a grand total of $90.6 trillion in investable assets around the world.

Over the past three decades, investors’ portfolio equity exposure has run at a historical average of about 60 percent. Think of this as the classic 60/40 stock-bond allocation.  continues here

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, Sentiment

Do You See the Positives or Negatives?

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index hit an all-time high yesterday, closing at 1,897.45. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also hit a record, ending at 16,715.44. This should be tempered by noting that the Dow is up less than 1 percent so far this year, while the S&P 500 has gained about 2.7 percent. One…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Earnings, Psychology, Sentiment, Valuation

Today in Bubble History: eToys IPO

Is today like 1999? Consider: 1999: eToys Inc., a startup Internet retailer, goes public on NASDAQ. Initially expected to be priced at $10-$12 per share, the stock is underwritten at $20 and quadruples before the opening bell can even ring. The first trade is at an astonishing $83 9/16. The shares close the day at…Read More

Category: Bubbles, IPOs, Sentiment

U.S. Money Managers Are Cautiously Optimistic

From Barron’s big money poll; The mix of neutral and bearish managers at 44% seems high — I’d love to see that plotted over a long period on a chart.   Source: Barron’s

Category: Investing, Psychology, Sentiment

AAII Sentiment: Bulls & Bears

click for larger graphic continues here

Category: Digital Media, Sentiment

Using IPOs to Measure Investor Sentiment

Analyst Mark Hulbert recently raised the question of what the rate of initial public offerings means for the stock market. He looked at IPOs and dividends as a broad way to evaluate investor sentiment. He used a variety of different data points to gauge if stocks were in a bubble. He also drew on (among…Read More

Category: Investing, IPOs, Sentiment

Barron’s Unsentimental Investors

  Our monthly letter to clients was picked up and excerpted by Barron’s Market Watch: A Sampling of Advisory Opinion. This is the section of the commentary relating to investor sentiment: Unsentimental Investors April Insight by Ritholtz Wealth Management 90 Park Ave., New York, N.Y. 10016 April 2: Anyone who thinks stock market sentiment is…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Media, Sentiment

Big Data in Finance: Sentiment-extraction from News

Using big data in finance: Example of sentiment-extraction from news articles Nitish Sinha FEDS Notes, March 26, 2014     There is much discussion and research in finance on using “big data” to understand market “sentiment.” In this note, I will draw on some of my own research in behavioral finance–Sinha (2010) and Heston and…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Federal Reserve, Sentiment

Why Minsky Matters

Click for radio segment.

Source: BBC Radio 4

Category: Cycles, Digital Media, Sentiment, Video

High Flying Tech Stocks Come Back to Earth

Fall from recent highs Source: RWM   Some of the most prominent names in technology are getting shellacked today. These companies got way ahead of themselves and now they are, well, to be polite, let’s just call it “retrenching,” as they give up a large percentage of their gains. I don’t think that Twitter Inc.,…Read More

Category: Sentiment, Technology, Trading