Posts filed under “Sentiment”

About David Tice’s 60% Crash Call . . .

Earlier this week, Prudent Bear fund founder David Tice warned of an imminent crash — as bad as 30-60% down on the S&P500.

One small thing: This is pretty much the same call that Tice made in 2010 and 2012. Apparently, if you make the same crash call every 2 years, most of the media and viewers will have forgotten the prior crash forecast.

Only Google never forgets. In 2010, Tice warned that the Secular Bear Market will not end until we get back to book value or below (Federated’s David Tice Is Not A Fan Of Fed-Manufactured, Free Money Driven, Bear Market Bounces, Sees “Huge” Potential For Decline 03/19/2010).

He repeated that crash call in 2012, predicting “Gold Will Surge To $2,500 And The S&P 500 Will Plunge To 1,000.” Meanwhile, the market rallied to 2000, a 100% gain versus the forecast.

Regular readers know that I believe forecasts are folly.

Perhaps all these crash predictions that did not come to pass while the market tripled in value is why my colleague Michael Batnick notes that The Prudent Bear fund has trailed the S&P500 by 400,000 basis points since 1996.

400,000 basis points!

The truth of markets is that all cycles end. The current bull market will one day end just as well. I advise people that between now and the day this bull cycle reaches its denouement, be careful as to who’s bull you choose to listen to.

 

Category: Markets, Really, really bad calls, Sentiment, Short Selling

In Stock Market, Anxiety Can Be Good Thing

Source: WSJ

Category: Digital Media, Investing, Sentiment

Mauldin: Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere

Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere By John Mauldin August 15, 2014     Easy Money Will Lead to Bubbles Excess Liquidity Creating Bubbles Humans Never Learn Anatomy of Bubbles and Crashes A Few Good Central Bankers Jack Rivkin at His Best Dallas, San Antonio, and Washington DC     The difference between genius and stupidity is that…Read More

Category: Books, Sentiment, Think Tank

Wall St Bullishness vs Equities Complacency

Funny to wake up after yesterday’s selloff to see two such diametrically opposed views from major investment houses:    

Category: Analysts, Sentiment

Edginess or Extrapolating The Unextrapolatable

Edginess. No, I am not referring to the one sought by my daughter by rolling her own and pushing boundaries (fortunately, for a parent, eschewing the tats, for now at least), but as in uneasiness, anxiety, disquietude, restiveness, worry, and an increasing sense of agitation of the type that George Soros wrote about in his…Read More

Category: Sentiment, Think Tank

Where Did All the Bulls Go?

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch, Global Research, Bloomberg   Continues here      

Category: Markets, Sentiment

Does Increased M&A = Potential Market Top ?

FT: When investors are complacent, stupid deals happen Source: FT     Last week, I pointed out some statistical errors in a chart suggesting that Rupert Murdoch’s bid for Time Warner was a sign of the market’s top. The chart had enough omissions to render it useless. Today, I want to show you a (slightly)…Read More

Category: M&A, Markets, Sentiment

3 reasons to ignore all these “correction” calls

click for video
correction

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Category: Cycles, Sentiment, Video

Market Sentiment Screams Crash! Or Buy! Or Something…

Today, let us briefly address sentiment – what it is, what it means and how to use it in your everyday trading. There is no piece of market data that is more misused, misunderstood or misapplied than sentiment. The spark for today’s diatribe was a State Street study of cash allocations in investment portfolios. The…Read More

Category: Psychology, Sentiment, Trading

Why Is It So Hard to Call a Market Top?

Each morning, I go through a similar routine: I wake up (no alarm clock), go to the kitchen to get a cup of coffee (this is my machine of choice lately), launch a script that opens 40 or so Firefox tabs. As part of my morning research, I quickly scan this series of websites to…Read More

Category: Investing, Sentiment, Short Selling, Technical Analysis, Trading