Posts filed under “Sentiment”

Nobody Likes Bonds!

fake yeild breakoutEarlier this week, we noted that “the Consensus Hates Bonds.” That is a small part of the reason my firm decided to increase our exposure to specific types of fixed income this year after having been significantly underweight bonds in 2013. I mentioned we added preferreds and corporate fixed income, obtaining that exposure primarily though exchange-traded funds.

That struck a chord with J.C. Parets, a chartered market technician. J.C. is founder of Eagle Bay Capital, LLC, and is the author of the blog All Star Charts.

 

Continues here

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Sentiment

Am I Too Bullish?

Over the past few weeks, I have been trying to push back against the usual contingent of bears. In particular, I have argued that this bull cycle is not yet over, markets are not in bubble and that people have been sitting for too long in way too much cash. John Coumarianos of the Institutional…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Sentiment

What Does It Mean When Investors Sit in Lots of Cash?

Consider this interesting divergence: Despite a plethora of bubble talk, chatter about high CAPE valuations, and market tops, investors have been carrying an awful lot of cash. This is not a new phenomenon, but rather, has been a persistent condition since this most hated rally in Wall St history began. Before we proceed with the…Read More

Category: Investing, Psychology, Sentiment

Does Too Few Bears = Correction?

  What do you get when you cross an overbought market with too few bears? Often, that combination of complacency leads to a correction. So far, all it has produced is a lot of frustrated contrarian traders. Stephen Suttmeier, technical strategist at Merrill Lynch, put the situation into broader context in his monthly chart book…Read More

Category: Sentiment, Technical Analysis

Bubble Trader Pro

I love these sorts of things — so instructive to a specific mind set:   via Zero Hedge  

Category: Humor, Sentiment

Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators

You know I love these sorts of things: Dr. Ed Yardeni has a nice set of monster sentiment charts posted at his site. The link is Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment,. & Technical and its 20 pages of fun.   courtesy of Yardeni Research, Inc. September 17, 2013.

Category: Sentiment, Technical Analysis

Generational Lows: 1942, 1974 & 2009

  Click for ginormous chart Source: Merrill Lynch   I love the giant chart above using the overlay of the S&P 500 off the 1942, 1974, and 2009 generational lows as a guide. Its beautiful in its simplicity, and has a little something for everyone. The bulls get a chart that is bullish longer-term, the…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Investing, Markets, Sentiment, Think Tank

Complacency Versus Wall of Worry

Are investors being too complacent? That is the question that an be looked at in several different ways. Some folks rely on anecdotal evidence. Others use the VIX or the Put Call ratio. The St. Louis Fed uses their own metric which they call the “Financial Stress Index” (STLFSI). It combines 18 different weekly data…Read More

Category: Investing, Sentiment

S&P 500 Valuation vs VIX Shows Complacency

Click to enlarge Source: Bloomberg   The pushback to yesterday’s chart (Sell Side Indicator: Wall St’s Improving Optimism) was rather fierce. Whether that reflects confirmation bias on the part of under-invested readers is unknown. But to provide equal time and to make sure that I am not engaging in my own confirmation bias, consider the…Read More

Category: Investing, Psychology, Sentiment

Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?

Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market? Jason Bram, Robert Rich, and Joshua Abel Liberty Street Economics     Consumer confidence is closely monitored by policymakers and commentators because of the presumed insight it can offer into the outlook for consumer spending and thus the economy in general. Yet there’s…Read More

Category: Employment, Sentiment, Think Tank