Posts filed under “Sentiment”

Five Bubbles?

The stock market has been choppy since mid-June, thanks in part to tapering talk and even more data that proves China is slowing down. MarketWatch’s Laura Mandaro discusses five bubbles investors need to watch

Five Bubbles Investors Need to Watch

Category: Markets, Sentiment, Valuation, Video

Wall Street (Still) Lukewarm on Equities

Click to enlarge     Merrill Lynch continues to point out that the Street remains unenthusiastic about stocks: Sentiment ticks up to highest in 13mos, but still far from bullish The Sell Side Indicator — our measure of Wall Street’s bullishness on stocks — ticked up just slightly in June to 49.8 from 49.6. The…Read More

Category: Sentiment, Technical Analysis

Question: What Is Driving Hindenburg Omen Internals?

Source: Stockcharts     Definition: Hindenburg Omen is triggered when: (1) more than 2.2% of stocks on the NYSE are at 52-week highs AND more than 2.2% are at 52-week lows, (2) the 50-day moving average is trending higher, (3) the McClellan Oscillator is negative, and (4) new 52-week highs don’t exceed new lows by…Read More

Category: Markets, Sentiment, Technical Analysis

What Do You Control?

During this past month, we have seen significant moves up and down. Volatility has risen; there have been some scary drops in Asia, and some follow through selling (more or less) in the US. We have seen small measures of over-reaction, along the lines of “What do I do? What should I do? Should I…Read More

Category: Investing, Sentiment, Trading

Don’t Be This Trader

Via Trader Habits, here’s another graphic to add to our massive collection of Sentiment Cycles (here, here and here):   Don’t Be This Trader  

Category: Sentiment

Random Thoughts: Comebacks, Intraday Reversals and the like

Since it is a Friday before a 3 day holiday weekend, it is a good time to kick back and think about what the recent market action might (or might not) mean. • Most Day-to-day market action is noise, There is very little signal involved, with the vast majority of commentary simply after-the-fact rationalizations of…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, Rules, Sentiment, Technical Analysis

Percentage of SPX Stocks Over 200 Day Moving Average

Renaissance Macro Research, May 14, 2013   Jeff deGraaf, technician extraordinaire (formerly of Lehman now at Renaissance Macro Research) makes an interesting observation about the heavily overbought markets. Last week, the S&P500 had ~93% of all stocks trading over their 200 day moving average. Normally, this degree of overbought should lead to a correction. As…Read More

Category: Markets, Sentiment, Technical Analysis

Habits of the Bear, Bull Markets and Agency Issues

  “If you’re bullish and wrong, you usually have plenty of company. But if you’re bearish and wrong, it’s almost unforgivable.” -Bob Kargenian, TABR Capital Management, Barron’s DECEMBER 15, 2012     The above quote from Barron’s has been on my mind for a while. I thought of it again as the markets have made…Read More

Category: Investing, Psychology, Sentiment, Valuation

Exuberance? Euphoria? Hardly . . .

Yesterday, the DJIA closed at a new record high, at 15,056.20 while the S&P500 closed at 1,625.96. While I keep hearing some people claim there is an excess of giddiness, please excuse me for failing to see it. My frame of reference is the 1999-2000 top, and I certainly do not see anything remotely resembling…Read More

Category: Markets, Sentiment

Flows say: Still No Confidence in Equities

Cyclicals vs. Defensives
Cyclicals vs. defensives

 

There are many different ways to measure investor confidence and market sentiment.BoA Merrill Lynch looks at their client flows relative to the market. Some of this is instructive:

On the one hand, private clients were net sellers in four of the last five weeks. However, as the chart shows above, there is a possible rotation starting away from Defensives and towards Cyclicals. That move might suggest that sentiment is improving.

One caveat: It is easy to cherry pick what you want when it comes to investor sentiment. This has a bullish color to it, but there are lots of other bearish readings as well.

 

 

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Category: Investing, Markets, Sentiment