Posts filed under “Short Selling”

About David Tice’s 60% Crash Call . . .

Earlier this week, Prudent Bear fund founder David Tice warned of an imminent crash — as bad as 30-60% down on the S&P500.

One small thing: This is pretty much the same call that Tice made in 2010 and 2012. Apparently, if you make the same crash call every 2 years, most of the media and viewers will have forgotten the prior crash forecast.

Only Google never forgets. In 2010, Tice warned that the Secular Bear Market will not end until we get back to book value or below (Federated’s David Tice Is Not A Fan Of Fed-Manufactured, Free Money Driven, Bear Market Bounces, Sees “Huge” Potential For Decline 03/19/2010).

He repeated that crash call in 2012, predicting “Gold Will Surge To $2,500 And The S&P 500 Will Plunge To 1,000.” Meanwhile, the market rallied to 2000, a 100% gain versus the forecast.

Regular readers know that I believe forecasts are folly.

Perhaps all these crash predictions that did not come to pass while the market tripled in value is why my colleague Michael Batnick notes that The Prudent Bear fund has trailed the S&P500 by 400,000 basis points since 1996.

400,000 basis points!

The truth of markets is that all cycles end. The current bull market will one day end just as well. I advise people that between now and the day this bull cycle reaches its denouement, be careful as to who’s bull you choose to listen to.

 

Category: Markets, Really, really bad calls, Sentiment, Short Selling

MiB: Jim Chanos, Kynikos Associates

This week’s Masters in Business Radio show is on at 10:00 am and 6:00 pm on Bloomberg Radio 1130AM and Siriux XM 119. Our guest is famed short seller and hedge fund manager Jim Chanos. You can listen to live here. All of the past Podcasts are here and at Soundcloud and coming soon to…Read More

Category: Hedge Funds, Philosophy, Podcast, Short Selling

Why Is It So Hard to Call a Market Top?

Each morning, I go through a similar routine: I wake up (no alarm clock), go to the kitchen to get a cup of coffee (this is my machine of choice lately), launch a script that opens 40 or so Firefox tabs. As part of my morning research, I quickly scan this series of websites to…Read More

Category: Investing, Sentiment, Short Selling, Technical Analysis, Trading

It’s a Tech Bubble! Unless You Care About Earnings and Valuations

Earlier this week, Greenlight Capital hedge fund manager David Einhorn reignited the bubble debate that we have spilled so many pixels dissecting. The shorter of Lehman Brothers and the New York Mets fan said in a quarterly letter to clients “we are witnessing our second tech bubble in 15 years.” The Bubble Chatter is nothing…Read More

Category: Hedge Funds, Psychology, Short Selling, Valuation

Warren Buffett Explains ‘Colorful Charlie’

After a marathon question-and-answer session with shareholders, Becky Quick asks Warren Buffett to comment on some of Charlie Munger’s best lines.

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Category: Philosophy, Short Selling, Video

Chanos: Ackman, Einhorn Help Expose Fraud

Chanos:

“I think [hedge funds] play an important part, particularly from the short side. Short-sellers and hedge funds are actually real-time financial detectives in that they are incentivized through profit to ferret out fraud, and I think that’s a very important role that people forget about from time to time.”

 

Click for video

Source: Yahoo Finance

Category: Hedge Funds, Short Selling, Video

Chanos: Do Your Own Work

Jim Chanos on Dell, Herbalife & Importance of Doing Your Own Work: Latest Interview

Jim Chanos on Shorting Herbalife, Dell

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Doing Your Own Work

Hat tip: Market Folly

Category: Short Selling, Video

Chanos on China’s Debt and PC Makers’ Failures

Famed short seller Jim Chanos, founder and president of Kynikos Associates, tells Impact Players host Robert Wolf that China is struggling under a massive debt load. Chanos also says explains why he’s shorting the entire personal computer sector. Wolf is an outside adviser to President Obama.

Chanos on China’s debt and PC makers’ failures – Impact Player

January 17, 2013

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Famed short seller Jim Chanos says the battle over Herbalife between billionaires Bill Ackman and Dan Loeb will turn on whether the company’s products are being used or simply sitting on distributors’ shelves.

Chanos handicaps Herbalife battle – Impact Players

January 17, 2013

Category: Short Selling, Video

Bad Risk Management – Not Secret Bailouts – Killed These Clients

  “If this particular broker had known exactly how far the bailouts reached, neither he nor his clients would ever have lost so much. But during the crisis it was decided, by people deemed more important than small-town investment advisers and their clients, that the full story of the bailouts didn’t need to be told.”…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Really, really bad calls, Short Selling

The Wisdom Of A Short Seller

Category: Short Selling, Video