Posts filed under “Sports”

Probability, Mean Reversion and Forecasting

We’re down to the Final Four in this year’s iteration of March Madness, also known as the national collegiate basketball tournament. Our earlier discussion of “The March Madness Theory of Investing didn’t sit well with some readers. The lessons we sussed out from the bracket-destroying results included home-country bias, how expert forecasts are about as good as those of nonexperts, and the impact of noise and distraction.

One issue I want to delve into further is why predicting the future seems to be so hard, if not impossible. That particular “lesson” caused quite a bit of pushback.

There were many good responses, but Cullen Roche of Pragmatic Capitalism made perhaps the most interesting observation. In a blog post he wrote:

(P)redicting the future is actually pretty easy in a macro sense. For instance, anyone with a sound understanding of macroeconomics and the capital structure knows, with a very high probability, that stocks will tend to become more valuable over long periods of time because stocks reflect the value of some portion of our overall output.

 I don’t see this so much as a factual disagreement as simply defining epistemological elements differently.

At the risk of repeating myself, let’s define just what a prediction is:

Continues here: March Madness and the Perils of Predicting

 

 

 

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Bad Math, Psychology, Sports

John Oliver on The Scandal That is the NCAA

The NCAA doesn’t pay athletes because they consider them amateurs. The NCAA considers them amateurs because they don’t get paid.

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: The NCAA

HBO, 3.15.15

Category: Really, really bad calls, Sports, Video

Don’t Play Probalities Like the Seahawks in Investing

Last week, I was in Seattle for an event sponsored by the CFA Institute. The trip was booked long before any of us knew the Seahawks were going to defend their championship title in Super Bowl XLIX. Following the Seahawks’ amazing comeback in the NFC Championship versus the Green Bay Packers on Jan. 18, the city…Read More

Category: Bad Math, Investing, Really, really bad calls, Sports

Josh Brown on SoulCycle

Hilarious:


Source: CNBC

Category: Humor, Sports, Video

NFL Crimes: 2000 to Present

Source: High Rank Websites

Category: Digital Media, Sports

Made in New York featuring Derek Jeter

Ahead of his final playing days, Derek Jeter soaks in the atmosphere on a walk in the Bronx.
 

via Gatorade

Category: Sports, Video

Morgan Freeman as LeBron James doing Redemption

This was the funniest thing I saw all week:   LeBron James Redemption (Frank Caliendo as Morgan Freeman  

Category: Humor, Sports, Weekend

What the World Cup Tells Us About Investing Models

  “All models are wrong; some are useful.” – George E. P. Box   The quote above comes from George Box. He was a brilliant statistician and professor, who thought long and hard about the use and misuse of statistics. I was reminded of Box this weekend while watching the thrilling World Cup final between…Read More

Category: Investing, Mathematics, Sports

Smartest Spenders in Sports 2014

Cool interactive graphic: Click for an interactive Source: Businessweek

Category: Sports

75th Anniversary of Lou Gehrig’s speech

Your browser does not support iframes. Source: MLB

Category: Sports, Weekend