Posts filed under “Taxes and Policy”
We get the first revision of GDP tomorrow morning at 8:30am. The export portion of GDP showed big improvement, thanks to the still
free-falling dollar. Unless the data in everything else fell apart,
that should bump GDP up to 1.0 – 1.25% (ex-inflation).
While that is brewing, it might be interesting to look at how States & Cities expenditures are doing. The State and Local Government consumption, expenditures and investment account for ~12.5% of GDP.
Consider the Personal Income tax, Corporate tax, Sales tax, and total Tax Revenue for a State:
1) State Income generally peaked in 2005, and has been decelerating since;
2) Only State Corporate tax receipts has turned negative on a YoY basis;
3) During the Recession of 2001, negative year over year revenue lasted as little as 1 quarter (sales tax) to 8 quarters (personal income tax);
If this cycle is even remotely similar to the mild recession of 2001, we are still in the first or second innings.
chart by Jake
Another good Friday on CNBC — excellent guests, discussing real issues, and in great detail.
Like the interview two weeks ago with David Einhorn and William Ackman, this shows how good finacial television can be when a smart guest discusses weighty topics with sufficient time to go into details beyond bumper sticker.
I don’t think the videos have as much Walker as they did on TV . . .
Discussing the state of private equity, with Pete Peterson, The
Blackstone Group chairman/co-founder and David Walker former U.S.
Perspectives on the economy, with Pete Peterson, The Blackstone
Group chairman/co-founder and David Walker former U.S. Comptroller
Video: David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital, William Ackman, Pershing Square Capital
We have previously reviewed the Uncle Sam’s withholding tax data as a read into the overall health of the economy. The most recent data point (March 13) shows W/H tax reaching a 23 month low. But we don’t like to rely on any single data point, especially one from a volatile series. Instead, look at…Read More