Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”

The Trading Game

Click to play.

Source: Bloomberg

Category: Digital Media, Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Recalling the Smart Money Index

One of the articles in my morning reads yesterday was an intriguing story by the Wall Street Journal with the headline, “Why Morning Is the Worst Time to Trade Stocks.” It reminded me of someone who in my early days in the 1990s was very formative in my philosophy of markets and investing: Don Hays. (See this 2001…Read More

Category: Sentiment, Technical Analysis, Trading

Beware the Bounce!

The market professionals are returning from their long holiday vacations. That may explain why futures were looking so strong Tuesday morning and the market surged at the open, or it may beShanghai’s late rally that accounts for the brighter outlook. As we have seen, futes can tell us how the markets may open, but not how they are…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Assessing the Technical Damage to Markets

  Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.  The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the time to sell.  -John Templeton   Now that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has had its first decline…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis

VVIX, and Something in China?

I found this chart, via Torsten Sløk of Deutsche Bank Securities. It is a quite fascinating look at the VVIX index. If you are unfamiliar with the VVIX, it is a measure of the volatility of the VIX, itself a volatility measure of the equity market. More precisely, it represents the expected volatility of the 30-day forward…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Video: Analysis of the Dreaded ‘Death Cross’

Following yesterday’s columnI discuss the markets’ dreaded “Death Cross” with Julie Hyman and Pimm Fox on “Bloomberg Markets.

Source: Bloomberg

Category: Media, Technical Analysis, Video

Oh, No! The Death Cross! (Never Mind . . . )

One of the themes we like to touch on in this column are heuristics. Myths that become Wall Street rules of thumb have existed for as long as there have been trading desks. They are legion, they pop up regularly and most of the time they are terribly wrong. Woe to the unwary trader who relies…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Margin Debt Hits an All-Time High . . . So What?

Every now and again, a way of looking at markets suddenly gains traction. Data gets assembled, analyzed, reviewed. Eventually, it becomes the basis of traders’ decision-making process. It even can become part of Wall Street lore. The problem that arises all too often is that this approach is statistically bogus. The data gets cherry picked;…Read More

Category: Analysts, Really, really bad calls, Technical Analysis, Trading

What is Market Breadth Telling Us ?

During the past few years, I have referred to market breadth as one of the more important metrics of the stock market’s health. As we close in on new highs in the cumulative advance-decline line, it is time to revisit this internal indicator. As the chart below shows, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has rallied from…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis

Source: Bank of America, Merrill Lynch

Category: Cycles, Technical Analysis