Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”
With all the bubble chatter and talks of over-valued stock markets, I thought it was time to have a discussion with someone is the expert on the subject. In this case, that person would be Paul Desmond, chief strategist and President of Lowry’s Research.
Desmond has spent the past five decades analyzing markets; his research is widely regarded as both unique and insightful, winning numerous awards from various Technicians groups. If you want additional background into his thinking process, have a read of this long interview I did with him in 2006 (Part I and Part II)
What I really love about his work is how empirically driven it is.
I spoke with him recently, chatting about his work in identifying market tops. Rather than focus on the usual noise Desmond, suggests anyone concerned about a top should be watching for very specific warning signs. He notes the health of a bull market can be observed by watching internal indicators that provide insight into the overall appetite for equity accumulation.
These four include: (Continues here)
Source: BAML Earlier today, we discussed why the new market highs are so bullish. Technicians like to look at determinants beyond prices to get a read on how a market’s internals are behaving. Stephen Suttmeier, a technical research analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co., points out that volume and breadth are just as important…Read More
With the reduction of tensions on the Black Sea, global markets rallied yesterday to multi-year highs. In the U.S., the S&P 500 closed at an all time high of 1873.91. Other markets set new multi-year or all-time highs as well. The world is breaking out. The day’s trades had barely closed, when the Johnny one-notes…Read More
Source: The Chart Store Today I am going to make a somewhat nuanced argument about the dangers of indicators and metrics for valuing stocks. Let’s use arguably the greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett, and what he describes as, “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”…Read More
Source: Monthly Chart Portfolio of Global Markets, Bank of America Merrill Lynch It seems that every 30 years or so, markets make what can be described as a “Generational Low.” We can define this as a capitulatory bottom, one that might be caused by a variety of factors, but usually includes some combination…Read More
As January goes, so goes the year?” That is the pithy version of the January Barometer. First identified by Yale Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, it suggests a correlation between January’s performance and full-year returns. I am not a believer in the many omens Wall Street traders tend to obsess about, including…Read More
Last week ended on quite the down note. Friday’s big selloff saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average drop 2 percent, or 318.2 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.1 percent (38.2 points), while Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.2 percent (90.7 points). The technically significant issue was that Friday was a 90/90 day —…Read More
We awoke this morning to see futures deep in the red. Over the past two weeks, markets seem indecisive, unable to make much progress. Lots of days began with positive trades, only to roll over and fall into losses. Several days that began in the red closed negative, though usually off their worst levels. Last…Read More
Source:Société Générale From Société Générale strategist Andrew Lapthorne comes the chart above, and the observation that ”It has been 408 days since the last 10% correction in the MSCI World index, the 8th longest period on record.” As the char above shows, this is just about the median length of time between corrections. The mere…Read More
click for larger graphic Source: BCA Research There seems to be an increasing concern that stocks have become wildly overvalued, especially in light of rising interest rates. However, somewhat overvalued U.S. equity prices can continue to rise if price/earning multiples keep expanding. Continues here