Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”

Nikkei 225: Breaking Out into New Secular Bull Market?

Nikkei 225: Potential breakout into a secular bull market

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch



We continue to favor Japan’s Nikkei 225. The Nikkei 225 is pushing above the 2007 high of 18,300, which has the potential to end the secular bear market for Japan that began in 1989. This is a focus chart in our 2015 Year Ahead and our February Monthly Chart Portfolio. A sustained breakout above 18,300 would confirm a secular double bottom for the Nikkei 225 off the 2003 and 2008/2009 lows and point to longer-term upside toward 28,000-30,000. Resistances come in at 20,900-21,575 and 22,750 (mid 1996 peak). Key 2015 support for the Nikkei is 16,700-16,300 with the October and April 2014 lows additional support at 14,530-13,885 (Chart 1). Nikkei 225 shows a base even when priced in USD Given the recent weakness of Japanese Yen, the Nikkei 225 has lagged and has yet not broken out above the May 2013 peak in USD terms. However, the big picture base or bottom is intact for the Nikkei regardless of whether it is priced in Japanese Yen or US Dollars. The potential is for a big breakout the Nikkei 225 in both JPY and USD (Exhibit 1). New highs for A-D line confirm the highs in the Nikkei 225 The strength in the Nikkei 225 advance-decline (A-D) line reflects strong breadth within the Nikkei 225 and supports the case for sustained breakout above 18,300 and continued upside for Japan’s equity market (Exhibit 2).

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis

A Rare Technical Analysis Pattern . . .

Source: Dilbert

Category: Humor, Technical Analysis

Emerging-Market Stocks = Cheap

Emerging-Stock Bargain Seen in Commodity Users: Chart of the Day By David Wilson, Bloomberg   The CHART OF THE DAY illustrates how Emerging-market stocks are becoming cheap enough relative to U.S. shares. Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank compared the price-to-sales ratios for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which tracks shares of companies…Read More

Category: Economy, Markets, Technical Analysis, Valuation

The Year in VIX and Volatility

Terrific graphic from Bill Luby at VIX and More looking at the various potential drivers of volatility:   click for monster chart Source: VIX and More

Category: Derivatives, Markets, Technical Analysis

Why Gold & Oil Are Trading So Differently

Category: Commodities, Energy, ETFs, Gold & Precious Metals, Media, Technical Analysis, Trading, Video

Category: Currency, Technical Analysis, Think Tank

Category: Technical Analysis, Think Tank, Trading

Stock Market Since 1900

click for ginormous chart Source: JP Morgan     One of my favorite charts to show people is the long-term market returns since 1900. I find it is incredibly telling in the information provided by a very simply line chart. Have a look at the chart nearby. It is from JP Morgan’s quarterly chart book…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets, Technical Analysis

NDR: 1980s Gold Pattern Suggests $660/oz

Gold is one of those topics that always generates fierce pushback whenever I write about it. Yesterday’s column How Low Can Gold Go? was no different. A deluge of emails and over 150 comments soon followed. I may post some of the more informative, vociferous and misguided comments / emails from readers later today as…Read More

Category: Cycles, Gold & Precious Metals, Technical Analysis, Trading

Analyzing Dips in the S&P’s Path

Bloomberg’s Michael Regan reports on stock market fluctuations and what they mean for investors.

Source: Bloomberg, Sept. 25 2014

Category: Federal Reserve, Hedge Funds, Technical Analysis, Video