Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”

Stock Market Since 1900

click for ginormous chart
Stock Market Since 1900
Source: JP Morgan

 

 

One of my favorite charts to show people is the long-term market returns since 1900. I find it is incredibly telling in the information provided by a very simply line chart.

Have a look at the chart nearby. It is from JP Morgan’s quarterly chart book which (I have referenced previously). It’s a delightful assembly, chock full of great graphics that both inform and amuse.

The chart we are focusing on today is Markets since 1900. It shows the long-term gains of the S&P500 (and its predecessor). It is in logarithmic scale, so as to not distort the earlier returns.

 

Continues here

Category: Cycles, Markets, Technical Analysis

NDR: 1980s Gold Pattern Suggests $660/oz

Gold is one of those topics that always generates fierce pushback whenever I write about it. Yesterday’s column How Low Can Gold Go? was no different. A deluge of emails and over 150 comments soon followed. I may post some of the more informative, vociferous and misguided comments / emails from readers later today as…Read More

Category: Cycles, Gold & Precious Metals, Technical Analysis, Trading

Analyzing Dips in the S&P’s Path

Bloomberg’s Michael Regan reports on stock market fluctuations and what they mean for investors.


Source: Bloomberg, Sept. 25 2014

Category: Federal Reserve, Hedge Funds, Technical Analysis, Video

Get Ready for the Shanghai Composite Break Out

  China is on the verge of breaking out from its pattern of consolidation, at least according to the monthly chart book from the analytics team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. If you look at the chart above you can see that the Shanghai Composite Index is in the midst of transitioning into an…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Volatility Over the Past Century

Source: Goldman Sachs via FT Alphaville     Despite what you might have heard recently, as it turns out, periods of low volatility are not particularly unusual. Have a look at the chart nearby. It comes to us from Goldman Sachs via FT Alphaville, and it shows that spikes in volatility are quite unusual. Periods of…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Why Is It So Hard to Call a Market Top?

Each morning, I go through a similar routine: I wake up (no alarm clock), go to the kitchen to get a cup of coffee (this is my machine of choice lately), launch a script that opens 40 or so Firefox tabs. As part of my morning research, I quickly scan this series of websites to…Read More

Category: Investing, Sentiment, Short Selling, Technical Analysis, Trading

Is This the End of the Secular Gold Bull?

In the beginning of this year, we looked at some of the trading errors commonly made by gold investors during this cycle. At the time, gold had fallen 38 percent from its 2011 peak. Yesterday, spot gold traded at less than $1,242 before closing slightly higher. Gold is hitting new multiyear lows relative to the…Read More

Category: Cycles, Gold & Precious Metals, Markets, Technical Analysis

The VIX, Variance Premium and Stock Market Volatility

Category: Options, Technical Analysis, Think Tank, Trading

If Stocks Go Up, Must They Always Come Down?

What’s gone up won’t always come down Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, April 20 2014     U.S. equity markets made substantial gains last year. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, the traditional benchmark for equities, was up 29.6 percent. Add in dividends, and it’s well over 30 percent. Technology and small-cap stocks did even better, with…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Technical Analysis, Valuation

Video: Signs of a Stock Market Top?

click for video
tops video

Source: Yahoo Finance

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Video