Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”

Paul Desmond interview – coming this weekend!

Be sure to check out the Paul Desmond
interview — it should be up this weekend, in 2 parts. (and, contrary to what
you might have expected, I was smart enough to let him do most of the talking!)

If you do not know who Paul Desmond is, he’s the President of Lowry’s
Service, which costs a pretty penny and is very highly regarded by the
institutional community. Desmond is known as a "Technician’s technician." His
work has been ground-breaking, and his prior analysis on how market bottoms
develop won the Charles H. Dow Market Technicains Award in 2002.

We discussed his recent paper on market tops. It’s utterly fascinating, and
I’m going to bet it is the early favorite to win the MTA award again.

The interview is probably the coolest thing I’ve ever done at Real Money –
Part II about how to spot market tops especially wicked.

Don’t miss it.

Category: Technical Analysis

Chart of the Week: S&P500 (12 months), Fed Edition

Category: Federal Reserve, Technical Analysis

Lowry’s Paul Desmond

Category: Technical Analysis

Are Bears really more rigorous than Bulls?

Category: Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

A Year of Panic Redux

Category: Financial Press, Technical Analysis

Cisco Technicals

Category: Technical Analysis

CRB Index, 5 years

Category: Commodities, Technical Analysis

Sell Off on Volume

Category: Technical Analysis

Technicals versus Economics

I got involved in a debate earlier at RealMoney – Columnist
, and wanted to pass it along here.

Pre-GDP (1/27/2006 7:31 AM EST), I wrote :

1) Technicals remain strong, and continue to be the driving force short
term. But economics look weak, and continue to be source of concern
long term.

2) Last Friday’s market actions was the market’s early warning sign.
Very heavy volume to the downside on a big selloff is never a good
thing. I interpret that day as a foundational crack of the cyclical
Bull market. Again, we are not looking for a 1987 situation, but rather
a Q1 topping out, and an ugly rest of the year.

3) Gold also looks toppy — it’s well overdue for a 10% correction. We
are short here, but would re-establish a long position in the 480-510

4) A 500 point day in Japan is too exuberant — it’s a sign of very
emotional trading. Historically, these sort of buying frenzies tend to
end badly. As such, we are lowering our multiyear price target on the
Nikkei down from 21,000 to 18,000. I would not be surprised to see this
lowered again before year’s end. And the Korean Topix, which I have
liked for some time, is geting crazed. Still plenty of upside, but
getting frothy…

Norm Conley raised a legitimate question about this:

"It seems as if you are taking two outlier one-day moves in markets (one "up"
move, and one "down" move), and extrapolating that although they are
contradirectional, they both carry ominous portents."

My response was:

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Category: Economy, Technical Analysis

The Astonishingly Inefficient Market

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis